Author: Blue Fox Notes

This long article by Vitalik can be seen as an updated version of Ethereum's future roadmap. On the basis of the classic roadmap from 2023 (Merge → Surge → Scourge → Verge → Purge → Splurge), it has been superimposed with the current Strawmap (the "Scarecrow Roadmap" maintained by the Ethereum Foundation).

The new roadmap shows us a vast and magnificent panorama of Ethereum's future engineering.

In simple terms, while the overall direction remains, the priorities and implementation paths have clearly changed, and several new elements that didn't exist in 2023 have emerged.

Continuing with some aspects:

• The consensus layer continues to improve (single-slot finality, more validator support, etc.)

• Data availability expansion (blob continues to enlarge)

• Light client verification becomes simpler (using SNARK/STARK proofs)

• The protocol is slimmed down, cleaning up historical technical debt

These aspects need to continue, but they have been reordered, and some have found new implementation methods.

Main adjustment areas:

Most importantly, quantum security has been significantly advanced. Previously, it was not a high priority; now it has become a high priority.

The reason is that the real threat of quantum computers has increased significantly since 2023.

Degrading technology aspects:

• VDF (Verifiable Delay Function) has basically been marginalized

• Many simple EVM improvements have also been downgraded

Technology replacement aspects:

• Verkle tree → Unified Binary Tree → Ultimately leading to PBT (a more optimal structure)

• State Expiry → New State Types, changing to a completely different state management paradigm to better support scaling.

Finally, new elements (not in the previous roadmap)

This is also the part that Vitalik finds most noteworthy:

First, privacy has become one of the highest priorities.

It needs to be directly written into the core design. This includes keyed nonces, FOCIL-related mechanisms, lean privacy pool, wormholes, etc. The ultimate goal is to make privacy a native capability of the protocol, allowing the application layer to build and optimize upon it.

Second, radical scaling (under post-quantum assumptions)

Using leanSPHINCS signatures + aggregation, as well as zkzk frames (zero-knowledge-over-zero-knowledge frameworks). This means that even if a complete shift to quantum-resistant cryptography occurs in the future, scalability must not drop.

Third, spec "leanification" + formal verification

Writing the protocol more cleanly and simply, facilitating complete formal verification. Vitalik explicitly stated that the feasibility of comprehensive formal verification has become possible mainly due to modern AI tools.

This is a very important foundational change; the complexity of the protocol is actively being reduced, and it cannot keep increasing.

Fourth, Blob and Gas futures

Making commitments/markets for future capacity in advance.

Fifth, Native Rollups

Now that SNARK technology has matured enough, it can be seriously considered to deeply integrate Rollup capabilities into the protocol itself, no longer just an imagination.

(This is very important for the integration of L1/L2)

Sixth, the future of EVM has been reopened

The protocol may expose simpler and more modern instruction sets in the future (currently candidates are leanISA or RISC-V).

The EVM could potentially become an intermediate representation (IR) running on these new instruction sets, rather than being hardcoded into the core of the protocol forever. This means that in the future, developers might directly use more efficient instruction sets, and the EVM will become a compatibility layer.

The two core ideas of the above technical roadmap:

First, there will no longer be an attempt to indefinitely expand "all Ethereum activities."

Some specialized mechanisms will be designed with limitations but more suitable for scaling, specifically to bear the heaviest loads today (transfers, swaps) and the heaviest loads tomorrow (privacy protocols).

Using specialization to gain higher scalability.

Second, treat recursive STARKs and AI-assisted formal verification as a truly first-class infrastructure.

A primitive called "aggregate to union verified dependencies" is expected to be used simultaneously across the execution layer (EL), consensus layer (CL), and data layer (DL).

This cross-layer reuse must rely on formal verification for safety, and formal verification, in turn, depends on modern AI. This is a deep "bet."

In summary,

Ethereum is moving from the "second generation after the Merge" toward the third generation transformation (Lean Ethereum).

Almost every major component will be replaced or rewritten:

For instance, the verification method becomes recursive STARK, cryptography is fully quantum-resistant, privacy becomes a native goal, the protocol itself is actively simplified to support formal verification, while utilizing specialized mechanisms and Native Rollup to significantly enhance scalability.

The ultimate goal is to achieve:

Quantum security + privacy first + security + decentralization + highly scalable under the premise of meeting all the previous conditions + maintaining simplicity.

In short, this is not just minor tweaks; it can be considered a systematic reconstruction, arguably the largest engineering advancement in the entire cryptocurrency field.

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