Author: Haotian

Recently, after deep discussions with several senior friends in the blockchain space, we reached a high level of consensus on the survival rules of the current cycle. The market has completely shifted from "listening to stories and speculating on expectations" to "focusing on cash flow and verifying implementation". Here are several insights on trading coins (for reference only):

1) Prioritize targets that possess the ability to capture real value.

In a bull market, the market is willing to pay for stories and expectations, but in a bear market, it only acknowledges real cash flow and records of buybacks and burns. The true "get out of jail free card" in this cycle is a protocol that can continuously generate fees and directly return these fees to token holders through buybacks, burns, or dividends. For example, the recently well-performing launch pad concept tokens, $UNI, $PUMP, $PONS, etc., as well as the buyback king of this cycle, $HYPE;

2) Only select projects that have achieved PMF and formed a complete closed loop.

Because, barring unexpected events, the next cycle will likely revolve around the two narratives of "asset tokenization" and "Agentic Economy" (Perps, prediction, stablecoins, Payment), the market will transition from a preference for technical narratives to a route focused on practical implementation verification. For instance, projects without real users, real trading loops, or real income will be quickly filtered out; some conceptual tokens along this line include: $ONDO, $VVV, $VIRTUAL, etc., and we will focus on actual AUM transaction volumes and fee-generating capabilities;

3) Choose assets with strong "consensus".

It must be acknowledged that after several cycles in the crypto industry, the only thing that can withstand the test is the word "consensus." Please note that this consensus is naturally fermented by the market and has cross-cycle capabilities, so do not confuse it with the so-called "consensus" created by a response to a tweet or by the industrialized hype from xxx. The truly potential assets are those that new investors completely do not understand, yet remain consistently liquid and are still performing well. For instance, the old Cult MEME tokens, $DOGE, $PEPE, $PEOPLE, etc., or leading assets in various segments like $ZEC, $TAO, which have endured multiple bull and bear cycles, with communities exhibiting strong organic vitality, making them easily targeted by key capital for repeated trading;

4) Try to avoid pure VC tokens.

If I say that altcoins are dead, you might counter with financial cycles repeating, but if I say that VC tokens are dead, basically no one would disagree. High FDV, low circulation, and continuous large unlocks of VC tokens are destined to only rely on airdrop expectations to heat up around TGE. If the project lacks the ability to capture value, it will inevitably face the awkward situation of insufficient momentum for subsequent development, with unlocks leading to crashes. This is the fundamental reason behind "the bull not going crazy, but the bear being deep" in this cycle, with a large number of hungry VC waiting to unlock and crash, so how dare retail investors touch such tokens?

Note: The above is just a summary of personal discussions with friends, and the tokens mentioned are for example only and do not constitute investment advice.

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