Author: Victor, Mr. Z, 168X
On the day before SpaceX went public, the pre-market contracts on the cryptocurrency exchange Hyperliquid were quoted at about 167 USD/share.
The next day, it was issued at 135 USD, opened at 150 USD, and closed at 160.95 USD. The pre-market indicated the excitement of the first day. But over the next few trading days, it surged to 225.64 USD; in less than two months, it plummeted back down to 104.83 USD, cutting in half from its peak.
The pre-market contract predicted the opening but completely failed to inform you of the price six weeks later.
Now, the same script is playing out with UNITREE Technology.
As of August 10, the highly liquid xyz:UNITREE contracts on Hyperliquid were about 85-86 USD/share, while another market para:UNITREE was about 84 USD. Based on the issuance of 404.46 million shares, the market is calling out an astonishing figure:
The implied valuation of UNITREE in pre-market is about 34-34.8 billion USD, equivalent to approximately 230-235.5 billion RMB.
This is about 3.8 times the market value of 60.993 billion RMB at issuance.
But SpaceX has already demonstrated a principle applicable to all IPOs: the price of a stock is formed in phases.
On the first day of trading, it is priced by "scarcity"; the first peak is priced by FOMO; and only in the end, is it priced by "cash flow" and "supply".
Failing to understand this order can lead to two opposite mistakes: those chasing highs mistake FOMO for value; those shorting use the logic of the final phase to oppose the trends of the first phase.
Therefore, the real question is no longer "Will UNITREE be speculative?" but rather: How expensive was this dream sold before the opening? And at which phase do you stand?
Unless otherwise specified as "USD", all amounts in this article are in RMB; real-time conversion uniformly uses 1 USD = 6.77 offshore RMB (USD/CNH).
👉 If you like this article, feel free to follow our Twitter @168X_Fortune, to receive cutting-edge AI & Crypto research, industry chain analysis, and interviews with top investors every day!
1. 84 USD is not a target price, but a thermometer of emotions
The rules for contracts on Hyperliquid are very clear: UNITREE is the market's dollar quote for "one share of UNITREE A stock"; after the official listing, the system will automatically calculate and settle according to the A-share price and the USD-offshore RMB exchange rate.
So pricing the contract at 84 USD corresponds to the following result:
84 USD × 404.46 million shares = 33.975 billion USD
Converted at 6.77 exchange rate = 230.011 billion
About 568.68 RMB per share, which is 3.77 times the issue price of 150.8 RMB
If we use the higher liquidity market's price of about 85-86 USD, this corresponds to about 575-582 RMB per share, with a market value of about 232.7-235.5 billion RMB.
But here's an important warning: It is not a stock.
This is a cash-settled contract, buying it will not make you a UNITREE shareholder, there are no IPO quotas, and it cannot be exchanged for a share of UNITREE.
More critically, it is how "light" it is. As of noon on August 10, the two pre-market markets for UNITREE (xyz and para) on Hyperliquid together had open positions totaling only about 11.9 million USD, with a 24-hour trading volume of about 2.13 million USD. In other words:
Less than 12 million USD in positions are vocalizing a valuation of nearly 35 billion USD for a company about to go public.
SpaceX demonstrated the same thing. Before its listing, Hyperliquid quoted about 167 USD, and it closed on the first day at 160.95 USD, accurately capturing the short-term temperature; but it did not forecast the later 225.64 USD, nor the subsequent 104.83 USD.
The pre-market contract can predict the opening but cannot write the ending for you.
2. 235 billion RMB equals betting on UNITREE taking two-thirds of the global market
First, let's lay out UNITREE's fundamentals. In 2025, revenue 1.699 billion RMB, operating cash flow 670 million RMB; on the books, the net profit attributed to shareholders is only 278 million RMB, but excluding one-time items and viewing only core operations, it actually earned 591 million RMB. (Prospectus)
The issuing market value is 60.993 billion RMB, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of 219.23 times. This scary multiplier's denominator is the 278 million RMB pressured by around 349 million RMB of non-cash equity incentive expenses; if using the net profit from core operations, the multiplier is about 103 times.
But whether it’s 219 or 103, it’s not the point. For a company that is still growing rapidly and has highly volatile profits, the only valuation formula that should be used is:
2035 market size × UNITREE market share × mature net profit margin × mature price-earnings ratio, then discounted back to today.
Goldman Sachs estimates that the global humanoid robot market will be around 37.8 billion USD (approximately 255.9 billion RMB) by 2035; under the blue sky scenario, it could be 154 billion USD (approximately 1.04 trillion RMB).
Using a set of deliberately conservative mature parameters: net profit margin of 15%, price-earnings ratio of 25 times, discount rate of 12%, discounted from 2026 to 2035 over nine years. Each price indicates what bets are being placed:
Issue price (60.993 billion RMB): implies revenue of about 45.1 billion RMB in 2035, equal to capturing 17.6% of the Goldman benchmark market
Pre-market 84-86 USD (approximately 230-235.5 billion RMB): implies revenue of about 170.1-174.1 billion RMB in 2035, which corresponds to 66.5%-68% of the benchmark market
Going from 1.699 billion RMB in 2025 to about 170 billion RMB, UNITREE's revenue compound annual growth rate over the next decade would need to be nearly 59%, and it cannot afford to slow down.
In simpler terms: this pre-market contract is not betting on UNITREE "becoming the leader," but on it nearly capturing two-thirds of the global humanoid robot benchmark market.
The only thing that could make this price seem reasonable is that Goldman Sachs' 154 billion USD blue sky market actually happens: at that point, 235 billion RMB would only require about 16%-17% market share. But that means betting on two simultaneous events: a massive industry growth and UNITREE maintaining its leadership position for the long term.
This is the essential difference between the two prices:
60.993 billion RMB anticipates UNITREE's growth over the next decade; about 235 billion RMB anticipates an unrealized blue sky scenario.
3. Regardless of how exaggerated the valuation, it may still rise first: only 4.5 billion RMB chips on the first day
This marks the first stage in the three-stage pricing: scarcity.
UNITREE issued 40.446 million shares, accounting for 10% of post-issue capital, with 8.0893 million shares locked for strategic placement, and the institutional (offline, designated for institutional allocation) portion is also limited. The actual tradable float at the beginning of listing is only about 7.4% of the total capital: approximately 30 million shares, corresponding to 4.5 billion RMB market value.
Demand, however, is of a completely different scale: the effective subscription amount from institutions reached as high as 73.669 billion shares, approximately 2,846 times the allocatable amount.
This is where shorts can easily make mistakes:
High valuation does not mean an immediate drop. When extremely high attention collides with an extremely low float, expensive items can first become even more expensive.
SpaceX is again a ready example: the issue price of 135 USD did not stop it from opening at 150 USD, and it certainly did not halt its surge to 225.64 USD. A thinly traded IPO first trades on scarcity, and only secondarily on valuation.
So conversely, Hyperliquid's 84-86 USD does not prove that UNITREE will definitely open at 600 RMB; but that 7.4% float also serves as a reminder: seeing only a fourfold valuation and rushing in to short is an extremely risky trade.
As for the subscription itself, it is rather simple: Enter the code 787836 into the brokerage app on August 10, one allocation is for 500 shares, if successful, pay 75,400 RMB; maximum of 6,000 shares, with a total of 12 allocations. The subscription does not require prepayment at the moment, and the lottery will be drawn on August 11, with results announced and payments due on August 12.
The lottery is a low-cost option where you pay only if you win; chasing the price after listing is a completely different transaction.
4. Unlocking is not a "down button": SpaceX’s stock crashed before unlocking and soared afterwards
If the pre-market price indicates FOMO, and the first day indicates scarcity, then unlocking is the most misunderstood part of the "supply" in the three pricing stages.
Most people think unlocking day = down day. SpaceX shattered that intuition. Its complete trajectory is:
135 USD issue → surged to 225.64 USD → plummeted to around 108 USD before unlocking → rebounded to around 133 USD after unlocking.
On August 6, around 910 million shares held by insiders and early shareholders were unlocked, instantly doubling the number of tradable shares. But the real decline occurred before the unlocking: the stock price fell from a peak of 225.64 USD to roughly half, plummeting around 13.6% on August 5 (the day before unlocking), closing at about 108 USD, a historical low. This involved two converging forces: one was the selling pressure triggered by the earnings report on August 4, and the other was the market reducing positions ahead of the unlock.
The outcome was a rise on the unlocking day: on August 6, it increased by about 6.1%, closing at 114.92 USD; the next day, August 7, it surged another 15.8%, returning to around 133 USD.
The reason is not hard to understand: The unlocking date is public information, and funds will not foolishly wait until that day to act. Those who were worried about supply sold early, and shorters had already positioned themselves; once the event actually occurs and the actual selling pressure is less than expected, short covering and event traders entering the market may instead trigger a sharp rebound.
Thus, the only thing that can be determined about unlocking is one thing: The potential sellable supply has increased. As for whether it goes up or down that day, it depends on how much the market has already priced in, how much shareholders actually sold, and how many shorts are accumulated at that time. It disrupts the mid-term capital structure, not a certain trading instruction that guarantees a drop on a specific day.
UNITREE's timeline should also be viewed with the same logic:
Wang Xingxing and Shanghai Yuyi together hold 31.29% post-issue, locked for 36 months
Tencent, Alibaba’s Hangzhou Haoyue, China Mobile and Chuang, and other new shareholders will hold about 4.62%, gradually unlocking in the first half of 2028
The remaining old shareholders account for approximately 54.10%, with many lock-up periods lasting 12 months post-listing; based on the issue price, the market value potentially entering unlocking conditions is about 32.995 billion RMB
DeepSeek’s strategic allocation of 933,400 shares is locked for 36 months and is not among the list in a year. The real focus should be on that 54.10% of old shareholders. Behind them are Meituan, Sequoia China, Matrix Partners, Shunwei, and Beijing Robot Industry Fund, with a combined paper value of about 19 billion RMB; these shares will gradually obtain trading qualifications around one year after the listing.
With only about 4.5 billion RMB in chips available on the first day, nearly 33 billion RMB from old shares will be lined up to approach the trading line a year later. The actual variables at that time will not be the unlocking announcement itself, but how much the stock price has already reflected months before the unlocking, and whether Meituan, Sequoia, etc., have indeed reduced their holdings.
The listing day is UNITREE's first IPO; one year post-listing is its second pricing. And this second pricing is likely to have started before the unlocking day.
5. You can subscribe, but don’t treat the pre-market price as the target price; you can consider shorting, but don’t rush to short
When putting all the numbers together, the conclusion is very clear:
60.993 billion RMB issuance market value: requires UNITREE to capture about 17.6% of Goldman’s benchmark market by 2035. Not cheap, but the logic holds.
About 235 billion RMB pre-market valuation: requires it to capture about 67% of the benchmark market, or concurrently hit a blue sky scenario with a market share of 16%-17%. Very expensive.
About 7.4% float on the first day: sufficient to allow the price to temporarily deviate from valuation, trading on scarcity and FOMO first.
Potential unlocking of about 33 billion RMB a year later: that is the true pressure test for re-pricing supply and demand.
Subscription and lottery are possible because that’s an option where you only pay if you win.
If you chase the high price, you must recognize that what you are buying may not be UNITREE at 60.993 billion RMB, but rather a blue sky dream close to 235 billion RMB.
If you short, ask yourself first: can you withstand the squeeze from only 7.4% of the float.
The true lesson SpaceX has left is not "dream stocks will ultimately fall," but the order of price formation:
First day priced by scarcity, first peak priced by FOMO, and ultimately priced by cash flow and supply.
What UNITREE may replicate is not just SpaceX's explosive rise but also the entire curve of its fall back to reality from the euphoric peak.
The most dangerous thing has never been to misinterpret UNITREE, but to use a ten-year valuation to fight against the chips of the first day of listing.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
