Author: Blockchain Knight

Yesterday, the U.S. Senate announced this week's agenda, but the CLARITY Act is not on the list at all.

Instead, there is a procedural vote on another resolution. August 7 is the Senate's recess day, leaving only 72 hours for the bill.

The procedural thresholds in the Senate are extremely complicated. The first step is to submit a motion to end debate, which requires the signatures of 16 Senators. The second step is a vote that requires 60 votes, while even with full support from the Republicans, they only have 53 votes, meaning at least 7 Democrats need to be brought on board.

It is these 7 people who have stalled the bill for two months. The third step, if the vote passes, requires another 30 hours of debate, and then a vote to "enter consideration."

If by Wednesday, Eastern Time, there are not 16 signatures, the bill won't even have a chance to be rejected. Even if the application is submitted on Wednesday, the vote could happen as early as Friday, but with the recess coming, there will be no time left to consider the bill.

Currently, the biggest division in the bill remains the ethical provisions, which prohibit certain high-ranking officials from issuing or sponsoring digital assets until 2029, but Democrats believe the enforcement loopholes are too large, and existing holdings and family arrangements have not been effectively constrained.

As of now, the White House has not formally responded to the revised draft. The Trump family's substantial profits from cryptocurrency have further eroded the Democrats' trust in the bill.

Additionally, the stablecoin rewards remain a powder keg; banks believe the reward mechanism resembles deposit interest, which would siphon funds away from the traditional banking system. Crypto companies, on the other hand, see this as a way to protect banks from competition.

The current compromise prohibits passive interest but allows rewards for trading, staking, and platform activities (this is also why Ethena has performed well recently, as the bill passing would make it a potential beneficiary).

Polymarket data shows the probability of the bill passing in 2026 has dropped to 31%, down 7 percentage points from a week ago and down 9 percentage points in the past month, with related betting amounts around $3.7 million, knowing this figure was still at 74% at the beginning of the year.

Investment institution Bernstein warns that if the Senate fails to advance the bill before the recess, it could trigger a market sell-off characterized by bad news, putting further pressure on the valuations of Bitcoin and overall crypto assets.

Moreover, Grayscale has urged the Senate to vote as soon as possible, including public calls from Treasury Secretary Yellen, while industry representatives have contacted Congress over ten thousand times, but the push has not been as efficient as expected.

This Friday is the last working day before the recess; if this week is missed, the bill will be postponed until September, when the Senate's agenda will be busier, and with midterm elections approaching, it will be even harder to find time for discussion.

Democrats say that if a procedural vote can start this week, it would at least leave a hope for when the Senate reconvenes in September, but that hope is shrinking by the hour.

Of course, if the bill continues to be delayed this week, then based on market performance, it seems that most people are not holding out much hope. Conversely, if the unlikely event of "passing" actually happens, the market's reaction could greatly exceed expectations.

Looking back at the past introduction of crypto bills, it seems that no bill has struggled this much, highlighting the significance of this bill to the industry.

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