Author｜Golem, Odaily Planet Daily
As TradeXYZ continues to expand its business scale and has held over 90% market share of Hyperliquid HIP-3 for a long time, discussions within the community about whether TradeXYZ might separate from Hyperliquid and independently build its trading platform have been heating up recently.
Former Messari researcher Sam posted on platform X stating that as an investor bullish on HYPE due to the explosion of the RWA perpetual contract market, one should ask oneself three questions: first, if TradeXYZ leaves Hyperliquid and launches its own exchange, where will users trade; second, what impact would TradeXYZ launching its own stock/token have on the valuation of HYPE; third, how high is the likelihood of these two scenarios occurring.
This post garnered over 470,000 views in just a few days; the rapid increase in discussion around this question is primarily due to more market participants realizing that the value contributions in the partnership between TradeXYZ and Hyperliquid are changing, and TradeXYZ is gradually accumulating stronger market influence and bargaining power compared to Hyperliquid.
In commercial partnerships, once one party gradually gains more resources and market discourse power, while the distribution of benefits between both parties becomes significantly skewed, "backstabbing" often occurs.
A recent example comes from the AI industry. Cursor was once the largest programming AI Coding tool on the market, using Anthropic's Claude model, which was initially a "golden partnership" until Anthropic backstabbed by launching Cursor's direct competitor, Claude Code. By mid-2026, Claude Code's ARR officially surpassed Cursor, pushing it off the table.
There are similar examples in the blockchain industry, where single products often outgrow their existing infrastructure and build their own chain ecosystem, such as Uniswap, dYdX, etc. In the hottest project of this cycle, Polymarket, there have also been multiple rumors about it leaving the existing Polygon infrastructure to build independent infrastructure.
Returning to the current issue, how likely is it that TradeXYZ will leave Hyperliquid to stand on its own? If this situation does occur, what will be the impact on Hyperliquid and TradeXYZ? Odaily Planet Daily will briefly analyze these questions in this article.
Is independence inevitable?
In the blockchain industry, there is a phenomenon where projects start and grow on a public chain or infrastructure; later, they choose to independently build their own infrastructure (L2 or independent L1) for performance, control, or larger narrative financing. TradeXYZ is indeed now large enough.
According to flowscan data, as of now, the total trading volume of Hyperliquid HIP-3 exceeds $469.62 billion, with TradeXYZ contributing over $437.4 billion, accounting for 93%; as of the time of writing, the total open interest (OI) for Hyperliquid HIP-3 has reached $3.9 billion, of which TradeXYZ has contributed over $3.8 billion, accounting for 99.7%.
Total trading volume of Hyperliquid HIP-3 and TradeXYZ's share
Meanwhile, the remaining few trading platforms combine for less than 10% market share, resulting in a massive Matthew effect in HIP-3. From this perspective, it is not an exaggeration to say that the HIP-3 market of Hyperliquid is entirely dominated by TradeXYZ; the narrative premium brought by RWA on-chain contracts to Hyperliquid essentially stems from the narrative premium TradeXYZ provides to Hyperliquid.
From both valuation and protocol revenue perspectives, TradeXYZ is no longer dispensable to Hyperliquid; it has become an important player shouldering significant responsibilities, especially in a weak crypto market where trading volumes in derivatives like Bitcoin are shrinking.
According to official data, the share of HIP-3 in Hyperliquid's total trading volume has reached 71.92%, hitting a historic high. Based on TradeXYZ's dominance in HIP-3, this means that the trading volume contributed by TradeXYZ accounts for over 70% of Hyperliquid's total trading volume; the OI of HIP-3 in Hyperliquid has reached 36%, indicating that TradeXYZ's contribution to OI constitutes over 35% of Hyperliquid's total OI.
HIP-3's share of total trading volume and total OI in Hyperliquid
Therefore, TradeXYZ has grown into a giant capable of influencing the traditional financial market, leveraging Hyperliquid's infrastructure. Now, in its cooperative relationship with Hyperliquid, TradeXYZ's leverage and discourse power are beginning to dominate. But should a grown child gain independence? What factors would trigger TradeXYZ to choose to build its own infrastructure?
Setting aside financing, token issuance, and other elusive capital operation factors, from a practical commercial perspective, if TradeXYZ truly chooses independence, the most likely reason would be to capture underlying transaction fees.
In Hyperliquid's HIP-3 market, the trading fee split between TradeXYZ and Hyperliquid is a fixed 50/50, and as the standard trading fee for HIP-3 assets is twice that of core perp market fees, Hyperliquid effectively receives protocol fees from each HIP-3 transaction equivalent to that of the core perp market.
Statistics show that as of the time of writing, the total fee income generated by TradeXYZ is close to $50 million, and according to the stipulated split ratio for HIP-3, TradeXYZ can take home at most $25 million.
Fees generated by TradeXYZ
It is hard to imagine that a project generating over $400 billion in trading volume has total income that hasn't even reached one ten-thousandth of its total trading volume. Having nearly half of the revenues given away is unbearable for most projects. With TradeXYZ's current leverage over Hyperliquid, it could easily negotiate a revenue split of 70/30 or even better. If negotiations fail, TradeXYZ is highly likely to embark on the path of independence.
Why won't TradeXYZ leave?
Of course, for TradeXYZ, gaining independence is appealing, but it also comes with constraints.
The first constraint is Hyperliquid's powerful performance. TradeXYZ's perpetual contracts are deployed on Hyperliquid's HIP-3 platform, with matching, order types, capital, clearing, and automatic deleveraging all managed by HyperCore. Technically, all TradeXYZ manages is the oracle price, marked price, external prices, and related components.
If TradeXYZ chooses to become independent, they would need to build their own team to develop the underlying infrastructure. While this is not necessarily difficult, constructing an L1 with performance as strong as Hyperliquid in a short time presents significant challenges. Even TradeXYZ's founder Shoku admits the excellence of the Hyperliquid team; in March 2024, Shoku posted on platform X expressing uncertainty about how much Hyperliquid could achieve in traditional metrics like TVL and trading volume, but he is entirely confident about the quality and rigor of Hyperliquid’s on-chain products and dApps, believing there are no competitors in the entire crypto space.
Among these competitors is, of course, himself. If the infrastructure built by TradeXYZ is insufficient to compete with Hyperliquid, it could adversely affect product experience and the narrative of price discovery ahead of traditional financial markets.
The second constraint is that channels and distribution are also crucial. Why is Circle willing to give over 50% of the savings yield of USDC to Coinbase? The reason is that Coinbase has indeed made a substantial contribution to the market distribution and promotion of USDC; according to Coinbase's latest Q2 report, over 30% of circulating USDC is stored on Coinbase. Mastering the channels and distribution means mastering everything, and this rule applies equally to TradeXYZ and Hyperliquid.
Essentially, Hyperliquid's front end is just an interface to access TradeXYZ's liquidity market, but it is not the only way. Users can currently access TradeXYZ’s liquidity market directly through the TradeXYZ website, and the trading page is highly similar to Hyperliquid’s. Furthermore, to further facilitate users, TradeXYZ’s internal accounts and Hyperliquid are interconnected, meaning that if a user connects the same wallet on TradeXYZ's official site and has a balance in Hyperliquid, they can use it directly.
TradeXYZ's own trading front end
But even so, among TradeXYZ's over 350,000 trading users, most still access TradeXYZ’s liquidity market through Hyperliquid’s front end; this user habit developed over a long time is hard to change, and there is even a certain proportion of trading users who cannot distinguish between TradeXYZ and Hyperliquid, simply trusting Hyperliquid’s brand and passively choosing to trade TradeXYZ’s products.
Therefore, Hyperliquid not only provides technological support for TradeXYZ but is also the primary channel for distributing TradeXYZ’s liquidity. The costs and time to build infrastructure can be calculated, but the value of losing channels cannot.
The third constraint is the mutual trust between the two project founders and their "innocent" relationship. Solana well-known KOL Ansem believes the likelihood of TradeXYZ becoming independent is almost zero because he considers TradeXYZ and Hyperliquid to be the two most compatible teams in the cryptocurrency space. "Neither founder harbors any greedy intentions, and they are both quite intelligent; I believe they can choose the development path that is most beneficial for both teams."
This assertion is not without merit; Shoku was among the earliest investors betting on Hyperliquid. As early as 2023, Shoku connected with Jeff and began contributing to the Hyperliquid ecosystem; in 2024, he developed Hyperliquid’s Bitcoin cross-chain bridge Unit. He has mentioned to friends that Hyperliquid is one of the few exciting things in the crypto world.
All signs indicate that Shoku greatly admires Hyperliquid and Jeff; from a human perspective, the likelihood of making a "backstab" is low.
If TradeXYZ becomes independent, the result is a lose-lose situation
If we are to discuss this topic thoroughly, this article should not end here; we should also consider a highly improbable event, which is if TradeXYZ truly leaves Hyperliquid to go independent, what would happen? The conclusion I arrive at is a lose-lose outcome.
Because under the current state, TradeXYZ and Hyperliquid are in a win-win situation. If TradeXYZ splits, the enormous uncertainty will harm both sides. After going independent, Hyperliquid could support other HIP-3 market participants, but it would turn from a collaborator into a competitor with TradeXYZ. The revenue impact on Hyperliquid would not be substantial, as over 70% of its main income still comes from core Perp, with the HIP-3 market occupying only a small portion; the greatest impact would be on its valuation.
Firstly, after TradeXYZ migrates, Hyperliquid’s total trading volume would drop by over 50%, and HYPE might also face a significant downturn since Hyperliquid would no longer be the leading on-chain RWA perpetual contract trading platform but would be redefined as a crypto derivatives trading platform that has lost its primary growth point and narrative foundation.
TradeXYZ would not fare much better; it would need to cultivate infrastructure and user habits from scratch. The performance and channels discussed earlier would become the biggest constraints to TradeXYZ’s growth, and such a backstabbing move could also provoke public controversy, further damaging TradeXYZ's credibility.
Moreover, TradeXYZ and Hyperliquid are not only competing with each other; there are other competitors in the entire RWA trading market. "When the clam and the snipe strive, the fisherman profits." Hyperliquid needs time to cultivate new HIP-3 market participants, and TradeXYZ’s infrastructure building will also take time. By the time they look back, the market gap may have already been filled by other competitors.
In conclusion, although TradeXYZ is becoming increasingly important to Hyperliquid, gaining independence is clearly irrational. Even if TradeXYZ aims to improve profitability, the best approach may be to gradually shift focus onto its own issuance and user ownership while retaining the existing integration advantages with Hyperliquid.
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