Written by: Shannon@Golden Finance
Is HYPE facing “buying and running” again? Just like Arthur Hayes in early June?
In early May 2026, three wallets associated with Multicoin Capital staked a total of 1.96 million HYPE (worth about 82.06 million USD at that time) into HyperCore, distributed among three independent addresses, showing a carefully designed position management intent.
On June 25, Multicoin released the most systematic valuation report on Hyperliquid to date, concluding target prices of 109 USD in a bear market, 319 USD in a baseline scenario, and 689 USD in a bull market at a price level of 63 USD, indicating about five times upside potential in the baseline scenario. The core argument of the report is that "HYPE is severely undervalued," and it discloses that this position is already one of Multicoin's largest liquidity positions.
About two weeks after the report was released, on July 22, on-chain actions indicated that an address associated with Multicoin transferred 395,570 HYPE to Coinbase, and the 1.96 million HYPE staked in early May was also unstaked and entered a 7-day unstaking waiting sequence, worth about 120 million USD.
This is the complete picture of the operation: staking for eight weeks → releasing a bullish research report → two weeks later unstaking + transferring to Coinbase.
Why did Multicoin operate this way: Four possible explanations
Any single explanation would be too simplistic. This operation is more likely a combination of multiple motives.
Explanation One: Fund liquidity management, not a bearish turn
This is the most neutral and likely valid explanation. On-chain data shows that Multicoin had previously conducted operations receiving HYPE from Galaxy OTC and routing it to Coinbase. This "OTC in → exchange out" path is a standard means for large institutions to manage liquidity, not necessarily indicating liquidation.
Multicoin manages a large multi-asset fund. Although HYPE is its largest liquidity position, the fund's quarterly rebalancing, redemption pressure, or cross-asset rotation could trigger partial reduction without affecting its medium to long-term judgment on HYPE.
Key figure: The 395,570 HYPE transferred to Coinbase accounts for about 17% of its identifiable HYPE holdings. Over 80% of the unstaked amount did not immediately enter visible selling channels, and its destination still needs to be tracked on-chain.
Explanation Two: The research report's release created exit liquidity
This is the most jarring but unavoidable interpretation in the market.
The basic logic is: at relatively high prices release a bullish report → market sentiment heats up, retail investors buy → a sufficiently deep liquidity pool is formed → institutions reduce positions without causing significant price impact.
This model has precedents in the crypto market, and Multicoin itself has been questioned by critics multiple times.
However, it should be pointed out that this operation alone cannot falsify or confirm this motive. Even genuinely long-term bullish institutions may choose to make tactical reductions at short-term sentiment peaks.
Explanation Three: Transforming staking into liquidity to participate in ecological investments
Just before and after the unstaking, Multicoin led a 1.75 million USD seed round for Hyperliquid ecological project Trasia. Trasia is a HIP-3 deployer focused on the Asian market.
Moreover, Multicoin is also actively laying out several Hyperliquid ecological projects. This means that part of the unstaked funds may be intended to free up cash for ecological-level investments rather than exiting the HYPE exposure itself.
Explanation Four: Tactical adjustment to current price levels
After HYPE reached a historical high of about 77 USD in June, it has continued to pull back and had fallen to about 58 to 62 USD by mid-July, with the HYPE ETF also recording a net outflow of about 7.26 million USD that week.
From the time the valuation report was released (63 USD) to the unstaking operation (about 60 USD), the price did not increase further. This may have prompted Multicoin to reassess short-term positions, shifting from "holding the largest liquidity position" to "moderately reducing while waiting for the next upward catalyst".
Impact on HYPE price
Direct supply-side shock: limited but signal effect
The transfer of 395,570 HYPE to Coinbase represents visible potential selling pressure. Calculating at the current price of about 60 USD, this batch of tokens is worth about 24 million USD. For a market like HYPE, which usually has daily trading volumes in the hundreds of millions to billions of USD, this does not constitute a structural shock, but during a phase of weak market sentiment, it could indeed suppress short-term rebound momentum. Particularly the signaling effect from Multicoin, where the core of price fluctuations is not the tokens themselves but the market's interpretation of this action, leading to greater implicit pressure.
Counter-pressure: institutional buying hedge
Multicoin's reduction did not occur in a vacuum. At the same time, Paradigm gathered 422,000 HYPE (worth about 25.4 million USD) to other wallets under its control about 23 hours ago, and then staked all those tokens. This indicates that institutional buyers are taking over, and Multicoin's reduction may not cause a net supply surplus.
What it means for the Hyperliquid ecosystem
Short-term: Liquidity anxiety, but fundamentals remain unchanged
Hyperliquid’s monthly trading volume has reached about 17% of Binance, and OI is about 21% of Binance, and these numbers did not change before and after Multicoin's operations. The protocol's revenue engine itself (approximately 869 million USD in tracked revenue) and repurchase mechanism are unaffected by this event.
Mid-term: A "test period" for institutional funds
This operation by Multicoin is essentially a test of an even more important proposition for the Hyperliquid ecosystem: When institutions holding large positions need to liquidate, is there sufficient liquidity depth for them to exit in an orderly manner without triggering a crash-like stampede?
Long-term: The disconnect between research reports and actions is a systemic issue
The most worth discussing aspect of this matter is not Multicoin's specific operational intent but that it exposes an unresolved structural issue in the crypto market.
The conflict of interest between publicly calling for positions and operational actions is entirely transparent on-chain, but lacks a binding mechanism.
When Multicoin released the 319 USD target price, the on-chain timestamp of their unstaking was recorded. This transparency is a double-edged sword. It allows market participants to see the true behaviors of institutions while preventing institutions from using "long-term optimism" narratives to cover up short-term reductions.
For the Hyperliquid ecosystem, this is rather a positive signal.
True "decentralized trust" does not rely on institutional statements but rather on verifiable on-chain data.
The protocol's repurchase volume, OI growth, user numbers, trading volume—these numbers are transparent and unaffected by any institutional narratives.
Multicoin can unstake, transfer to Coinbase, and issue a 319 USD research report and then reduce positions.
But it cannot change the fact that Hyperliquid has become the most important on-chain derivatives platform.
This is the core coordinate for judging the boundary of this matter's impact.
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