The American prediction market platform Kalshi has submitted an application to the CFTC, planning to launch perpetual futures contracts linked to gold, silver, and platinum. As demand for traditional asset trading heats up, perpetual futures are expanding into broader markets.

Source: Jinshi Data

The American prediction market platform Kalshi is expanding its perpetual futures business from cryptocurrency into the traditional asset market, targeting precious metals such as gold, silver, and platinum.

According to reports, Kalshi has submitted an application to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the United States, planning to launch perpetual futures contracts linked to precious metals. According to regulatory procedures, the CFTC will decide whether to approve within 45 days. Compared to some event contracts that can be self-certified on exchanges, new products like perpetual futures are undergoing stricter regulatory scrutiny.

The proposed precious metals perpetual futures are expected to offer trading five days a week, 24 hours a day, aligning with traditional precious metals market trading hours, rather than operating year-round around the clock like cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. Kalshi's Chief Risk Officer Udesh Jha stated that the company is still assessing the possibility of extending trading hours further.

Perpetual futures are a type of derivative with no expiration date, allowing investors to leverage their market exposure. In the past, these products were mainly active in the cryptocurrency market, but recently, as geopolitical conflicts have intensified, demand for traditional asset trading has risen, causing perpetual futures to enter more fields. For example, during the Iran war, some retail investors used related products to trade oil prices, circumventing the traditional futures market's trading restrictions.

Kalshi's expansion also reflects that competition around the perpetual futures market on trading platforms is heating up. Emerging platforms, including Hyperliquid, have launched contracts linked to real assets such as gold and crude oil, forcing traditional exchanges to accelerate their strategies. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME) plans to officially launch 24/7 trading services for its existing 1-ounce gold futures contract this week (July 26).

Meanwhile, the gold market itself is undergoing a critical adjustment phase. Since hitting a historical high at the end of January this year, gold prices have seen a maximum drop of about 25%. Previously, the expectation that the Federal Reserve might maintain high interest rates pressured gold, as it is a non-yielding asset. However, several institutions believe that current gold prices are showing signs of being oversold, and a rebound opportunity is forming.

The American research institution Zweig-DiMenna pointed out that the People's Bank of China has recently increased its gold purchases, which may indicate that the market is bottoming out.

According to data disclosed by the People's Bank of China, the official gold reserves in the first half of 2026 increased by a total of 40 tons, reaching 75.44 million ounces (about 2,346.45 tons) by the end of June, marking the central bank's 20th consecutive month of increasing gold holdings. In June alone, 15 tons were added, the largest monthly gold purchase scale since October 2023. In comparison, the purchase scale of the People's Bank of China for the entire year of 2025 was only about $2 billion.

Zweig-DiMenna stated that current gold prices are about 10% below the 200-day moving average, and historically, similar situations have led to significant rebounds in 1999 and after 2022. However, cases from 1981 and 2013 also show that even after being oversold, gold prices may continue to decline, so market trends still depend on the macro environment.

Morgan Stanley is also optimistic about the future of gold, with its commodity team estimating a year-end gold price target of $4,450 per ounce, primarily based on the continuous gold purchases by global central banks.

However, the current demand from central bank gold purchases is still partially offset by outflows from gold ETFs. Last year, ETF investors contributed about one-fifth of the gold demand, but enthusiasm among investors has declined due to easing geopolitical risks, changes in interest rate expectations, and corrections in gold prices.

The key to future gold trends remains in the Federal Reserve's policies. If inflation continues to cool, and the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates or even lowers them in the future, a decline in real interest rates may once again enhance gold's appeal and lead to a return of ETF funds.

Institutions believe that the recent adjustment in gold does not mean the long-term logic is broken. As global central banks increase gold reserves, market demand for safety continues to exist, and new trading tools continue to emerge, the gold market may be brewing the next round of market conditions. Kalshi's layout of precious metals perpetual futures also demonstrates that traditional asset trading is evolving toward a more flexible and higher-frequency direction.

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