Author: Liam "Akiba" Wright, CryptoSlate

Translation: TechFlow

TechFlow Insight: The current price of BTC is around $64,000. Buyers who entered at $120,000 last July have lost nearly 48% and need a 92.2% rebound to break even. Glassnode's on-chain data shows that the cost basis for short-term holders is at $72,200 and the real market average at $76,600—these two points will be the first pressure test on the road to recovery, and some holders may choose to sell as losses narrow.

Buyers from last year at $120,000 are deeply underwater

Currently, with BTC priced at around $64,000, investors who entered when BTC first broke $120,000 last July now see their $1,000 investment worth only about $520—a loss of 47.98% requiring a 92.2% rebound to break even (excluding fees).

In July 2025, BTC first topped $120,000, setting a historical high of $123,165; by October 6 of the same year, it climbed higher to a record of $126,198. But now, the price is far below any of these milestones.

The first pressure test on the road to breaking even

According to Glassnode's Week 27 research report, the cost basis for short-term holders (the breakeven point for recent buyers) is around $72,200; the real market average (a broader benchmark of active investors' costs) is approximately $76,600. BTC has traded below these two metrics for about 5 months.

As the price approaches the first two cost bases, the losses for high-entry buyers will narrow, providing earlier exit opportunities for other holders. Some may choose to hold after returning to profit, while others may opt to reduce their holdings after a prolonged loss—demand intensity at these levels will determine whether the potential supply can be absorbed.

Key level overview:

• $72,200 (needs to rise 12.7%): Cost basis for short-term holders, testing demand when recent buyers return to breakeven
• $76,600 (needs to rise 19.6%): Real market average, testing demand when a broader active market returns to breakeven
• $100,000 (needs to rise 56.1%): Psychological threshold, testing if recovery exceeds the first cost basis checkpoint
• $123,000 (needs to rise 92.2%): Entry price from July 2025, testing if last year's high buyers can break even

The bottom is still unconfirmed

Glassnode's update from July 13 indicates that the process of BTC trending towards $64,000 lacks broad consensus, with weak spot participation and on-chain activity. On July 15, Glassnode noted that the capitulation of long-term holders is cooling, and buyers have absorbed the June lows, yet the bottom remains "a work in progress."

Two updates indicate gradual improvement—but to break through the first two cost bases, stronger demand is still needed. At the critical levels of $72,200 and $76,600, the core question is: how much potential selling pressure will emerge and can buyers absorb it?

Glassnode also maintains an exposure to downside risk—the report from July 8 suggests that the bear market lower bound of an realized price of around $53,000 may still be reached. Glassnode views $53,000 as residual risk and continues to characterize the bottom as unconfirmed.

BTC needs to regain the two cost bases of $72,200 and $76,600 before $100,000 and $123,000 become meaningful. A stronger recovery first depends on whether demand can absorb the risk release near $72,200, followed by $76,600. Before both checkpoints are confirmed with broader participation, last year's high buyers face those holders who can exit earlier.