Author: Claude, Deep Tide TechFlow

Deep Tide Guide: Changxin Technology's science and technology innovation board IPO is priced at 8.66 yuan/share, raising 57.9 billion yuan, with subscription on July 16. On the eve of the subscription, Trade.xyz deployed CXMT perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid, with a current trading price of 7.2 USDC (approximately 52 yuan/share), 24-hour transaction volume of 1.32 million US dollars, open interest of 2.41 million US dollars, and an implied market value of about 3.5 trillion yuan, which falls within the upper range of institutional expectations of 2-3 trillion. This is the first time that an on-chain pre-IPO contract targets the A-share science and technology innovation board, and it is also the most direct entry point for overseas investors to get involved in the "Chinese storage alternative" narrative.

Changxin Technology has not yet rung the bell on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, but price discovery in the crypto market has already begun.

According to a Bloomberg report on July 15, Trade.xyz deployed Changxin Technology (CXMT) perpetual contracts on the Hyperliquid blockchain, with contract code xyz:CXMTUSD. As of the time of writing, the contract had a 24-hour trading volume of about 1.32 million US dollars, an open interest of about 2.41 million US dollars, and a funding rate of 0.0014%. The price surged from an initial mark price of about 6 US dollars to 7.2 US dollars, reflecting a 20% increase over 24 hours.

This is not the first time Hyperliquid has done pre-IPO pricing. In May this year, before the IPO of AI chip company Cerebras, the pre-market contract on Hyperliquid was only 1.3% different from the Nasdaq opening price; on the day of the SpaceX IPO in June, on-chain contracts had a single-day transaction of 1.38 billion US dollars. However, targeting the A-share science and technology innovation board is a first.

7.2 US dollars is approximately 52 yuan/share, with an implied market value of about 3.5 trillion

The contract is priced in USDC tracking the per-share price, using the same logic as the pre-market contracts for SpaceX and Cerebras.

Converted at the current exchange rate, 7.2 US dollars is approximately 52 yuan/share, multiplied by the total issued share capital of 66.88 billion shares, implying a total market value of about 3.5 trillion yuan, equivalent to about 6 times the IPO issuance market value of 579.2 billion yuan.

This pricing falls within the slightly optimistic range expected by sell-side institutions. An article by the 21st Century Economic Report quoted investment banking sources stating that Changxin Technology is expected to have a valuation of 2 trillion to 2.5 trillion yuan after going public; various institutions' calculations compiled by Caijing Magazine indicate that the optimistic scenario offers over 3 trillion to 4 trillion yuan. The 3.5 trillion yuan pricing on Hyperliquid is positioned between the neutral upper edge and the optimistic lower edge.

To read it another way: if the judgment of these on-chain traders is accurate, the stock price of Changxin Technology could open near 50 yuan on its first day of trading, about 6 times the issuance price of 8.66 yuan. In the first half of this year, the average first-day increase for A-share science and technology innovation board IPOs was 489%, making a 6-fold opening not unreasonable.

Within less than 24 hours of the contract's launch, 1.32 million US dollars in transaction volume and 2.41 million US dollars in open interest have already formed preliminary liquidity for the on-chain market, but this is still an order of magnitude less compared to the 1.38 billion US dollars transaction on SpaceX's listing day. This price reflects the directional judgments of early participants, rather than institutional-level pricing.

A-shares cannot be sold or shorted on the same day: perpetual contracts naturally fill the gap

Why would crypto traders pay attention to a Chinese A-share? Some views from overseas social media platform investors may help explain the issue. The institutional limitations of A-shares are precisely the opportunity for perpetual contracts.

A-shares have two structural limitations. T+1 settlement means you cannot sell on the same day you buy, and stocks on the science and technology innovation board cannot be short-sold. For a stock like Changxin Technology, which may see significant fluctuations on its first day, A-share holders face an awkward situation: they cannot lock in profits from a price increase on the same day, leaving them fully exposed to the risk of a high opening and a low close the following day.

Perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid do not have these restrictions. Trading is 24/7, allowing both long and short positions, and leverage can be adjusted. In theory, investors holding A-share positions in Changxin Technology could open short positions on Hyperliquid to hedge overnight risks.

However, the lack of arbitrage paths is a problem that needs to be addressed. With Cerebras and SpaceX listing on Nasdaq, global investors can freely arbitrage between the underlying stocks and the contracts, leading to a rapid convergence in prices. Changxin Technology's listing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange with a capital threshold of 500,000 yuan and QFII quota restrictions prevents the vast majority of overseas retail investors from buying the underlying stock directly.

There may be a long-term price difference between the contract price and the actual trading price of A-shares, and investors need to factor in additional pricing for this.

Foreign capital cannot buy A-shares, DeFi has become the entry point for the "Chinese storage alternative" concept

Blockchain.News directly points out in the report: the CXMT contract provides overseas traders with a channel to bypass the 500,000 yuan threshold of the science and technology innovation board.

This demand is not fabricated. Changxin Technology is the world's fourth-largest DRAM supplier, with a 7.7% global market share in the first quarter, and SemiAnalysis predicts that it may surpass Micron by the end of the year to become the third-largest globally. Apple has begun testing Changxin Technology's DRAM chips for devices in the Chinese market (according to a report by the Financial Times on July 8). Net profit attributable to the parent company in the first half of 2026 is expected to be 50 billion to 57 billion yuan, with a profit margin of about 70%, which is on par with SK Hynix's 73% and Samsung's 81%.

A company like this going public is attracting the attention of global storage industry investors, but most cannot buy in. The crypto research institution Citrini has repeatedly recommended the perpetual contract scenario on Hyperliquid in its paid reports, while also being optimistic about Changxin Technology.

In the scenario where foreign capital cannot directly participate in A-shares, Hyperliquid contracts may become the most convenient channel for them to engage in the "Chinese storage alternative" concept.

Looking at the bigger picture, this is the first time DeFi infrastructure has been used to create a parallel pricing market targeting Chinese science and technology innovation board stocks. The HIP-3 framework of Hyperliquid allows any entity pledging 500,000 HYPE tokens (approximately 28 million US dollars) to deploy perpetual contracts. Trade.xyz has already launched pre-market contracts for companies such as SpaceX, Cerebras, OpenAI, and Anthropic, generating a total of over 1.46 billion US dollars in trading volume. After TradingView integrated data sources from Hyperliquid and Trade.xyz on July 2, the price trends of on-chain perpetual contracts have entered mainstream market terminals.

It is worth mentioning that the Hyperliquid policy center and TradeXYZ recently met with the SEC's cryptocurrency special working group to discuss cryptocurrency regulation issues. From the current regulatory trajectory, US regulation is mainly focused on platform compliance, and the regulatory risks of Chinese stocks are not currently considered.

(Note: Hyperliquid is not open to Chinese users.)

57.9 billion fundraising, 66 billion net profit in the first half: Changxin Technology itself is an annual event

Returning to the context of A-shares, even without Hyperliquid's contracts, Changxin Technology's listing is already a landmark event in the Chinese capital market for 2026.

With an issuance price of 8.66 yuan/share and an initial issuance of 6.688 billion shares, it is expected to raise 57.9 billion yuan, nearly double the original plan of 29.5 billion yuan. If the overallotment option is fully exercised, the fundraising amount will reach 66.6 billion yuan, making it the largest IPO in Asia this year and the largest semiconductor IPO in A-share history. With an issuance price-earnings ratio of 308.92 times, far exceeding the industry average of 76.32 times, the market is not worried, as the net profit of 33 billion yuan in the first quarter is quickly digesting the valuation. The company expects a revenue of 110 billion to 120 billion yuan in the first half of 2026, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 50 billion to 57 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of over 2244%.

More crucially, it is the timing. The global DRAM market is in an unprecedented super boom cycle. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have shifted a significant portion of their production to the high bandwidth memory (HBM) needed for AI servers, leading to a shortage in consumer-grade DRAM supply, with DRAM contract prices skyrocketing by 90% to 95% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, marking the largest single quarterly increase in history. Changxin Technology focuses on consumer-grade DDR5 and LPDDR5X products, with a monthly production capacity of 200,000 to 300,000 pieces, being one of the few manufacturers counter-cyclical expanding production of consumer-grade DRAM, effectively capturing the production capacity vacated strategically by the three giants.

In the A-share IPO segment, all 71 new stocks rose on their first trading day in the first half of this year, with an average increase of 489% for new stocks on the science and technology innovation board. Retail investors can participate in online subscription on July 16, with the subscription code 787825, and it is expected to be listed on July 27.

For A-share investors, the subscription on July 16 is the main entry. For overseas investors, the Hyperliquid CXMT contract has already opened a side door. After the official listing on July 27, whether the contract price can quickly converge to the actual trading price like with Cerebras will be the key test to determine whether this model can be replicated in A-shares. But even if prices do not converge, the existence of this parallel market itself already indicates that the interest of global capital in the narrative of the Chinese storage alternative is not just talk.