Written by:潮向研究

Last Friday, U.S. stocks were closed for Independence Day, yet Nasdaq 100 futures climbed over 1%, indicating a significant cooling of concerns in the AI sector. Over the weekend, the Russia-Ukraine call did not ease tensions; instead, both sides increased their attacks, and the Middle East risk premium withdrew ahead of time, with gold rebounding throughout the week, breaking its four-week decline. This week, the Federal Reserve's minutes, tariff hearings, and SpaceX's entry into the Nasdaq are all pressuring the market; whether the accumulated bullish sentiment during the market closure can materialize will depend on liquidity.

Market Performance

On Monday, early in the Asia market, S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures increased by 1.2%, continuing the rebound momentum from last Friday's futures market. Spot gold rebounded 2.16% over the week to $4,176.94 per ounce, and spot silver rose 5.52% to $62.4158 per ounce, reflecting that funds continued to seek safe-haven outlets during the market closure of U.S. stocks. Brent crude oil fell 0.66% over the week to $72.12 per barrel, marking the longest consecutive decline in nearly two years with four weeks of losses, mainly due to the retreat of the Middle East risk premium. Bitcoin is currently around $63,600, up 0.8% in 24 hours, and up 7.9% over the past seven days; Ethereum is reported at $1,784.58, rising 15.1% over the week, clearly outpacing Bitcoin, with the strength of high-volatility assets often seen as a leading signal of risk appetite.

Macro and Outlook

On Tuesday, SpaceX will be included in the Nasdaq 100 index, breaking records for speed from listing to index inclusion, and passive funds tracking the index will be forced to buy; on the same day, the U.S. Trade Representative's office will hold hearings on tariffs imposed on 60 economies, with trade friction risks resurfacing; the annual Sun Valley conference will also start on the same day, with leaders from Apple, Amazon, Meta, and OpenAI attending, but this year's seating chart notably lacks Jensen Huang and Musk, and who is absent often merits more consideration than who is present; OpenAI has scheduled the release date of GPT-5.6 on the day the Claude Fable 5 cap plan expires, and this timing is difficult to say is purely coincidental; the arms race in AI models has already spilled over into the timing of release schedules, which may recalibrate the pricing logic for stocks related to chips and computing power.

On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the first meeting chaired by Waller, with the June dot plot indicating that half of the committee members favor a rate hike this year; the market wants to see if there are more hawkish words confirmed in the minutes; two voting committee members will also publicly speak during the same week, but this year’s schedule for speeches is much sparser than usual, and such unusual silence often occurs around policy shifts.

Around Friday, SK Hynix's ADR is expected to list in the U.S. market, with an issuance scale exceeding 45 trillion won, a size that recalls Alibaba’s record-setting U.S. IPO back in the day, which may thus boost sentiment for stocks in the semiconductor and memory chain. This week, Fast Retailing, PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, and others are set to release their earnings reports, officially kicking off the second quarter earnings season, with major overseas companies’ performance forecasts entering a peak period starting July 9.

Tide Direction Perspective

The logic for the bulls is straightforward: the futures market had already rebounded ahead of the closure, with gold and cryptocurrencies moving up simultaneously, indicating that risk appetite has not been disrupted by geopolitical and tariff noise. The bears’ concerns are equally clear; the convergence of the rate hike minutes, tariff hearings, and SpaceX entering the Nasdaq all in the same week means that any hiccup in one of these events could nullify the optimistic sentiment accumulated during the market closure. The critical watershed lies in the wording of the rate hike minutes; if the minutes led by Waller are not more hawkish than the market expects, the rebound in the futures market is likely to continue after the market opens on Monday; if the minutes confirm a preference for rate hikes, Bitcoin and Ethereum, among other high-volatility assets, are likely to give the first signals of a pullback.