Author | Cathy, Vernacular Blockchain

$60,000, broken.

Bitcoin has broken through a key support level that it maintained for nearly two years, once falling to the lowest point since October 2024. On-chain data shows that institutions and whale groups holding 10 to 100,000 Bitcoins sold 45,000 Bitcoins to the market within 8 days. U.S. stocks dived along with it, and crypto concept stocks collectively collapsed.

But what really causes concern is not the price itself.

It is those publicly traded companies that have placed their entire balance sheets on Bitcoin. They have hoarded hundreds of thousands of coins, issued hundreds of billions of dollars in debt, and tied the stock price to the coin price through an intricate financial flywheel. Now, the flywheel is starting to slip.

01 Who is hurting the most?

Let's start with the largest.

• Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy): Holds 847,000 Bitcoins, having spent a total of $64.1 billion to build its position, with an average cost of about $75,600. With Bitcoin dropping below $60,000, the overall unrealized loss exceeds 20%. Worse still, MSTR's stock price relative to its net Bitcoin asset value has fallen from a high premium during the bull market to a deep discount of 0.60 to 0.65 times. In other words, the market thinks this company has $1 of Bitcoin worth only $0.60.

• Metaplanet: This Japanese company is in a worse situation. With 40,000 Bitcoins and an average holding cost close to $97,600, combined with the impact of the Yen's depreciation, the unrealized loss exceeds 37%.

• Twenty One Capital (XXI): The company led by Jack Mallers, supported by Tether, Bitfinex, and SoftBank, boasts a dream team. However, since its SPAC listing, the stock price has plummeted over 85% from a peak, fully erasing its valuation premium. By May 2026, SoftBank opted to transfer all its 26% stake at a full discount to Tether, withdrawing from the board. The big shots ran first.

• Solmate: The most dramatic story is about this company. Originally named Brera Holdings, its business was to hold equity in several lower-tier football clubs. Inspired by MicroStrategy during the bull market, it announced a full transformation and raised $300 million to fully invest in Solana. Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest even touted it as a “revolution of asset treasury.” As a result, Solana dropped by 53%, and Solmate's stock price crashed from $249 to $5. Internal board conflicts ensued, major shareholders accused each other of plundering company funds, and both the CEO and chief economist resigned.

This is not a failure of the holding pattern. This is a normal outcome of a gambling game that lacks a core business safety net.

02 No liquidation, but the flywheel is stalling

There is a panic narrative circulating in the market: if Bitcoin drops below $60,000, MicroStrategy will be forced to liquidate.

This is a misjudgment of financial instruments.

In 2022, MicroStrategy indeed borrowed $205 million from the crypto bank Silvergate with a mortgage loan directly linked to Bitcoin's pledge rate, almost triggering a liquidation at that time. The ATM was closed, and it could only continue to rely on issuing more MSTR common stock to cash out to pay interest. However, MSTR was already trading at a 0.6 times NAV discount, and continuing to issue discounted shares would severely dilute the Bitcoin share represented by each share.

This creates a vicious loop: halting dividends leads to a collapse of "digital credit" ratings; continuing to issue results in common shareholders being marginalized.

In the first quarter analyst meeting of 2026, Michael Saylor finally loosened his stance. He said that in a severely frozen financing environment, the company "is likely to proactively sell a portion of its Bitcoins" to pay preferred dividends.

This statement directly contradicts his long-held public doctrine of "never selling Bitcoin."

03 Accounting standards are making it worse

The ASU 2023-08 guidelines that come into effect in 2025 require publicly traded companies to account for Bitcoin at fair value, with quarterly fluctuations directly affecting the profit and loss statement.

• During a bull market, this acts as a money-printing machine. When Bitcoin rises, billions of dollars in unrealized profits appear on the profit and loss statement, ROE skyrockets, and quantitative stock selection models and index filters automatically pull such companies into focus. Traditional funds flow in as well.

• During a bear market, the money-printing machine turns into a paper shredder.

Strategy reported an unrealized loss of $14.46 billion in the first quarter of 2026, with a GAAP net loss of $12.54 billion for the quarter. This loss exceeds the profits of the vast majority of blue-chip companies worldwide.

Even more critically, a chain reaction ensues. Index compilation companies like MSCI begin to evaluate whether they should exclude such "pseudo-industrial companies." Once excluded from the index, passive funds and pension trusts that track the index will be forced to sell, creating a spiral of "price drop → exclusion → passive fund selling → price continues to drop."

This is not market's free choice; it is mechanical selling driven by rules.

04 Autumn 2027 will be the real test

In the short term, holding companies will not face liquidation. The design of unsecured debt and perpetual preferred shares gives them a buffer of "trading time for space."

However, if Bitcoin cannot return to the average cost line of $75,000 within the next 12 to 24 months, the convertible bond repurchase window starting in autumn 2027 will turn into a credit refinancing crisis.

The path is clear: Bitcoin hovers at low levels, MSTR's stock price remains below the conversion price for an extended period, convertible bondholders exercise their repurchase rights demanding full cash redemption, financing channels freeze, preferred dividends deplete cash reserves, and the final step is being forced to sell hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins to the market in exchange for fiat currency.

That would be a real liquidity crisis.

The holding company model does not have the ability to avoid liquidation. It merely replaces "price-triggered instant liquidation" with "time-triggered debt repayment crisis."

Do not focus on the technical support level of $60,000. Focus on the calendar of September 2027.