Author: Yashu Gola

Translation: Deep Tide TechFlow

Deep Tide Introduction: Bitcoin fell below the $60,000 mark on Thursday, triggering a 4-hour arc top and a daily bearish flag breakdown, with both patterns independently calculated to target around $54,000. The on-chain MVRV pricing band also provides support references in the same region. The tech stock sell-off combined with technical breakdowns is increasing short-term risks.

Bitcoin fell below $60,000 on Thursday—this key psychological support line was breached, with the immediate trigger being a collective decline in large tech stocks, affecting overall risk appetite and hitting the crypto market the hardest.

Caption: BTC/USD compared to Nasdaq and S&P 500 daily charts

Source: TradingView

This drop triggered a classic bearish reversal structure, potentially pushing BTC prices below $54,000 in the coming days.

Key Points:

• Bitcoin broke below $60,000, completely reversing June's gains, with multiple bearish structures activating simultaneously.
• The calculated targets for both the arc top and daily bearish flag are below $54,000.

Arc Top Breakdown Opens More Downside Potential

BTC/USD fell by a maximum of 4.8% on Thursday, with intraday lows around $58,000, nullifying the entire gain of June. This pullback also finalized the arc top structure on the 4-hour chart.

Caption: BTC/USD 4-hour chart arc top structure

Source: TradingView

The formation process of the arc top involves buying momentum gradually exhausting, with prices transitioning from an upward trend to a downward trend, creating an inverted U-shaped structure. When the price falls below the "neckline" (the bottom support of this structure), the pattern is officially confirmed.

The calculation method projects the vertical distance from the arc top to the neckline downward — for Bitcoin, this target lands just below $54,000, equating to about an additional 8.9% drop from the current price.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin simultaneously triggered a bearish flag breakdown.

Caption: BTC/USD daily bearish flag breakdown structure

Source: TradingView

This second structure's independently calculated downside target also points to the $54,000 region — the consistent signal from two different time frames indicates strengthening bearish momentum.

MVRV Pricing Band Reinforces $54,000 Support Logic

On-chain data is also pointing to the same region.

Glassnode's MVRV pricing band compares Bitcoin's market price to its realized price (the average cost of all coins last moved on-chain). Simply put, it measures whether the market is in a profit or loss state overall, and the degree of deviation.

Caption: BTC MVRV pricing band compared to price

Source: Glassnode

As of Wednesday, Bitcoin's trading price was around $60,997, while the 1.0 MVRV band (green line in the chart) was near $53,390. This level is highly consistent with the technical $54,000 target, and if BTC continues to fall, this will be a key support area.

A deeper sell-off could push Bitcoin toward the 0.8 MVRV band (blue line in the chart), around $42,700. Historically, major bear market bottoms for Bitcoin have occurred near this blue line — at that time, unrealized losses on-chain reached extreme levels, and the risk of capitulation selling was also highest.