The World Cup provides the most natural public scenario, and wallets may transition from asset entry to event participation entry.

Written by: imToken

Objectively speaking, the positioning of prediction markets in the Crypto world has been somewhat awkward for a long time.

It is very popular within vertical circles but not entirely mainstream; it can compress complex events into a real-time price, yet due to sensitive scenarios like politics, sports, and insider information, it has long been in a regulatory gray area.

However, after the start of the 2026 World Cup, this track suddenly found itself in a position that was easier for the public to understand.

The reason is simple, the World Cup may be the most natural and largest prediction market scenario globally—which teams will advance from the group stage? Who will take the championship? Can a certain team reach the quarterfinals? Has the win/loss probability of a focal match been priced in by the market ahead of time? These questions have always been topics that fans discuss every day, only previously they were largely confined to forums and sports media.

In prediction markets like Polymarket, these will be further transformed into tradable probabilities and a price curve that changes with the progress of the match. This is where Web3 wallets like imToken start to integrate prediction markets, indicating that prediction markets are not just a trading product; they might become the entry point for ordinary users to participate in real-world events through their wallets for the first time.

1. Prediction Markets are Being Incorporated into Regulatory Scope

If looking only at the frontend product experience, many people easily simplify prediction markets to "Web3 versions of online betting," but from the perspective of regulators, there is actually a game of defining rights behind this.

Because prediction market trades are not just about the prices of BTC and ETH, but also encompass the outcomes of real-world events, such as economic data, elections, policy decisions, or even more sensitive geopolitical events.

It is precisely because of this that the regulatory issues surrounding prediction markets have never been solely financial matters. After all, if the market corresponding to the result of a certain event has a large enough stake, then theoretically, related parties, especially those with undisclosed information, may have the incentive to influence the outcome itself or use their informational advantage to trade in advance.

This is also the core background for the CFTC to redefine boundaries on prediction markets recently.

It is well known that in the last two years, prediction market platforms like Polymarket have frequently crossed boundaries in US elections, macro data, and geopolitical events, resulting in the CFTC effectively accelerating the inclusion of prediction markets and event contracts into key regulatory topics.

The CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig recently stated that he is in communication with all major US professional sports leagues, hoping to strengthen the regulatory framework for sports-related prediction markets and prevent insider trading and market manipulation risks, which is particularly crucial for the sports market because sporting events are inherently suitable for predictions but are also naturally sensitive.

Therefore, recent actions along this line have shown a common characteristic: on one hand recognizing the informational value of prediction markets while on the other accelerating the separation of the scenarios most prone to issues:

For example, Kalshi has publicly stated that it will prohibit political candidates from trading in markets related to their own campaigns, and will also prevent athletes, coaches, referees, and other related personnel in professional and college sports from participating in trades related to their own events; Polymarket also updated its market integrity rules in March to explicitly prohibit trading based on stolen information, illegally obtained information, and other improper sources, while strengthening constraints on market manipulation and information abuse.

The establishment of an information-sharing mechanism between MLB and the CFTC also indicates that both sports leagues and regulators are aware that once prediction markets enter the mainstream sports scene, integrity issues of events must be addressed in advance.

In other words, prediction markets are transitioning from wild growth to a stage more akin to financial infrastructure, which presents both constraints and opportunities for Polymarket, Kalshi, and more platforms to follow.

2. Why Might the World Cup Become a Breakthrough Moment for Prediction Markets?

For prediction markets to break out, regulatory changes alone are not enough; they also need a sufficiently large public event.

The World Cup happens to fulfill this requirement.

Many of Crypto's past breakthrough moments have often occurred when "high cognitive barrier technology" combines with "low cognitive barrier scenarios." For instance, NFT broke out because it tied on-chain assets to avatars, art, and community identity; memes spread rapidly because they compressed complex financial behaviors into simple emotions and cultural symbols.

If prediction markets are to reach a broader range of users, the best entry point is not macroeconomic data or complex political contracts but sports, entertainment, and events, which the public is already willing to discuss.

The uniqueness of the World Cup lies in its natural possession of three conditions.

• First, it has global consensus, even if one is not a deep fan, they can understand questions like who wins or loses, who can advance, who will become the champion;
• Second, it has a high-frequency information flow, such as pre-match lineups, real-time conditions, injury information, tactical changes, and progress of the matches, which will continually change market expectations;
• Third, it has strong social attributes, watching matches is not an isolated activity, but a process of group chatting, sharing, discussing, debating, and emotional resonance.

This is similar to traditional sports betting but with clear differences.

Traditional odds are more determined by market makers and bookmakers; users see quotes processed by the platform; prediction markets emphasize user-to-user trading, the formation of market prices, and the transparency of result settlements, especially in Crypto-native environments, where cash flow, transaction records, and settlement processes are easier to verify, giving prediction markets a stronger openness and observability.

Of course, this does not mean that prediction markets are necessarily "higher" than traditional sports betting; the essence of prediction markets remains risk trading, but they do offer a new way to participate in events.

Notably, according to the latest disclosed data, the overall trading volume in prediction markets was still on the rise in April 2026, reaching approximately $29.8 billion, a month-on-month increase of 12.4%; however, in this continually expanding pie, Polymarket's total trading volume in April fell by 8.9% compared to March; meanwhile, competitor Kalshi, which focuses on compliance pathways and is rapidly expanding through a federal regulatory framework and sports contracts, saw its trading volume increase by 13%, reaching about $14.8 billion.

This set of data conveys a clear signal: the foundational landscape of prediction markets is undergoing a significant change.

In the past, Polymarket attracted a large amount of capital from within the circle through global political games, crypto-related events, and macro narratives; now, players like Kalshi are wildly staking claims based on compliant user pathways and sports contracts.

This also means that whoever can capture the "sports" segment of this globally shared cake will gain an advantage in the next phase of traffic competition.

3. From Assets to Events: A Seamless Evolution of Wallets

This is also why imToken's prediction activity during the World Cup is noteworthy.

Currently, users can enter Polymarket through imToken to participate in market predictions related to the World Cup, earning returns according to Polymarket rules for correct predictions, and even having the opportunity to receive subsidized experience funds from imToken (the first 200 users can get a $5 subsidy), while also being able to share prediction records and World Cup opinions through X interactions.

On the surface, it seems to be merely an activity during the World Cup, but when viewed in a broader industry context, it actually points to an extension of the wallet's role.

In the past, the core function of wallets was asset storage and on-chain interaction, such as users sending and receiving tokens, connecting to DApps, authorizing, signing, swapping, and participating in DeFi or NFT transactions. Ultimately, wallets are the entry point to the Crypto world, but this entry point has primarily revolved around "assets."

The emergence of prediction markets provides wallets with the opportunity to further become "event participation entry points." This is quite easy to understand; after all, a user’s enthusiasm for the World Cup does not necessarily stem from their initial interest in Crypto; a user wanting to predict a match does not necessarily mean they first understand on-chain trading.

However, when the World Cup, Polymarket, USDC, wallet entry, and social sharing come together, the usage path of Crypto is rewritten—not by learning wallets first and then entering the complex on-chain world, but by initially revolving around a real-world event that they already care about and completing a lightweight on-chain participation.

This is crucial for general users.

In the past, many Crypto products had a high barrier to entry because users had to understand concepts like public chains, gas, wallets, authorization, DEX, and cross-chain before they could comprehend why they should use them. Prediction markets, on the other hand, present users with a clear question first: do you think this outcome will happen? Are you willing to use a small amount of funds to express your judgment?

When the question is intuitive enough, the cost of product education lowers.

This is also the World Cup's greatest significance for prediction markets; it does not simply bring a wave of trading volume but provides Crypto with a rare public narrative scenario, which may be more important than mere trading volume.

The World Cup gives prediction markets this reason, while the wallet may become the entry point that embraces this reason.

Final Thoughts

Of course, prediction markets will not be instantly mainstreamed due to a single CFTC proposal or a World Cup event.

They still face many issues, such as regulatory boundaries still being formed, market manipulation and insider information needing governance, user privacy and on-chain security requiring attention, and ordinary users needing to understand that prediction markets do not equal a guaranteed win game.

However, the direction is becoming increasingly clear.

So, will prediction markets during the World Cup become a new entry point for Crypto to break out? The answer may not be a simple "yes" or "no."

More accurately, the World Cup is pushing prediction markets from niche tools for speculators towards a broader public event participation scenario, and when more users participate in real-world events through wallets for the first time, the entrance to Crypto may no longer just be market prices and assets, but every public event happening.

Let’s wait and see.