Author: Senal, AI Prediction Market
When the eyes and liquidity of the vast majority of people are drained by the elections and the BTC trend, the sports segment of the prediction market has almost become an overlooked corner.
Yet it is in this neglected market that three mysterious wallets have quietly pocketed profits of over 7 million dollars in the past year.
With the approaching World Cup in June 2026, the trading liquidity in the sports segment is bound to reach historical highs. In preparation for this super event and to see through the cards of these 'smart money', AI Prediction Market Senal has retrieved and cleaned 10,058 on-chain raw records from these three addresses, fully restoring their trading paths and underlying strategies.
Here is the core profile of these 3 smart money wallets:
- HyperLiquid0xb: Netted $3.56 million in just 12 days, betting 100% on MLB baseball with a win rate of only 45.8%.
- 1j59y6nk: Laid low for 87 days, pocketing $1.4 million, with a strategy covering NBA, football, tennis, and NFL comprehensively.
- S-Works: Active for 41 days, with a net profit of up to $2.15 million and a win rate of 68.7%.
Peeling back the account data, we uncovered 5 hardcore truths hidden behind the on-chain records:
01 / Without a "banker", your opponents are a group of biased retail investors
Many mistakenly treat decentralized prediction markets as traditional gambling, believing they are "betting against the banker." The truth is, there are no bankers here; all odds are crafted by users' real money trading.
Once funds flood into popular teams (like the Dodgers) due to emotion, their odds will be pushed up, while the odds for weaker teams are severely depressed—even if the weaker team's real chances of winning are not that low. The main users of the prediction market mostly have Anglo-American backgrounds, and they hold fixed, predictable biases towards specific events. These three wallets never predict matches; they only do one thing: find the areas of highest emotional concentration, buy the severely undervalued side, and conduct on-chain arbitrage.
02 / Risk-reward ratio is the way: How can a 45.8% win rate net $3.56 million?
HyperLiquid0xb's win rate is only 45.8%, meaning he loses more than five of every ten matches. But he still managed to net $3.56 million in 12 days.
From the perspective of on-chain data intelligence, making money has never relied on "guessing the win or loss," but on "whether the buy-in price has enough margin of safety." If a team's real winning probability is 42%, and market sentiment prices it at 35%, this 7 percentage point pricing deviation is pure profit margin.
- In the 44 matches he won, the average return on capital exceeded 100%.
- And in the 52 matches he lost, the losses were strictly limited.
03 / Hunting "strong team halo": Understanding the discount space of weak teams
HyperLiquid0xb's strategy is extremely focused: specifically pressuring weak teams whose odds are severely depressed by public opinion and emotions when matched against strong teams. He concentrated 64.3% of his funds on weak teams with odds of only 35%-42%:
- Betting on the Cardinals (odds 30%) to defeat the Dodgers → Profit +$580K, return rate 186%.
- Betting on the Goldfinch (odds 39%) to defeat the Phillies → Profit +$585K, return rate 156%.
- Betting on the Twins (odds 37%) to defeat the Tigers → Profit +$559K, return rate 86%.
The hotter the strong teams, the more emotive funds flood in, and the more outrageous the odds for weak teams become, usually stabilizing at 5-10 percentage points too low. This pattern holds true in nearly every MLB game and could even be directly written into quantitative strategies.
04 / Dimensionality reduction attack: Finding outrageous pricing in an "information desert"
The wallet 1j59y6nk once bet on the Norwegian football team FK Bodø/Glimt at just 13% odds, leveraging $562 into $3,842, achieving a return rate of up to 683%. S-Works did the same; he bet on Sun Fazheng from "Martial Arts Wind" to defeat Fomin at 60% odds, turning $297K into $489K (+64.7% return). This was also the most profitable operation in all of his trades.
Nordic leagues, Chinese combat—these markets are fundamentally misunderstood on platforms dominated by Anglo-Americans. Not understanding means mispricing, and mispricing means enormous Alpha space.
05 / Stripping false prosperity: Out of 624 transactions, fewer than 10 really made money
S-Works appears to have an ultra-high win rate of 68.7% and a net profit of $2.15 million. But if we break down the settled position data, the truth is shocking:
- 57 profitable markets earned: +$153,136
- 26 losing markets lost: -$513,160
- Actual settled net loss: $360,024
Most of his $2.15 million paper profit comes from an unclosed arbitrage position (bought at the very low price of 1.25 cents for Arsenal's Champions League victory, current price about 41.5 cents). He used 70% of his funds to take advantage of the pricing lag at the end of games, but the actual total profit from these 624 operations was a meager $2,861.
What truly supports his profit empire are only the three transactions where he had absolute information advantage: Sun Fazheng from "Martial Arts Wind" (+$192K), UFC (+$84K), and total runs betting in baseball (+$79K).
June World Cup, a perfect arbitrage storm
Summarizing the above five rules, you will find they will be magnified infinitely in the upcoming World Cup group matches:
- The strong team halo will reach its peak, and weak team odds will be severely mispriced.
- Anglo-American users lack understanding of African, Asian, and Central American teams, resulting in significant pricing deviations.
- Historical data shows that the upset ratio of strong teams in World Cup group matches is much higher than in knockout stages, but retail investor sentiment typically does not reflect this.
- The liquidity of the event will be several times that of usual, enough to accommodate institutional-level funds entering.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
