Author: Nancy, PANews
When the storage sector went crazy and both Micron and SK Hynix broke through the trillion-dollar market capitalization mark, Elon Musk was also accelerating the creation of the myth of his trillion-dollar fortune.
SpaceX, with its sky-high valuation, is rapidly moving toward the capital market. This super IPO, which may rewrite the history of wealth, is pushing Musk to become the world's first trillionaire and allowing early allies to reap returns of a hundredfold or even thousandfold.
However, for this most expensive space narrative in human history to continue, it ultimately needs new payers. As massive pension funds are "forced to buy in," American pensions become the fuel for Musk's dream of space.
Musk is making American retirees "explode with gold coins."
Countdown to the largest IPO in history, early allies have profited tremendously
Wall Street has been waiting a long time for SpaceX to go public.
In the past decade, this company has grown from a startup valued at only $27 million to a super unicorn now valued at nearly $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion, becoming one of the highest-valued private companies in the world.
Today, this super IPO is expected to officially list as soon as June 12. This not only marks the largest IPO event in human history but also indicates that the wealth feast is entering the realization phase. Musk's long-time followers finally get to see substantial returns.
For example, Google, through early investments, might become the biggest outside winner. By the end of 2025, it holds about 6.11% of SpaceX. An investment of only $900 million years ago now corresponds to a value of nearly $120 billion; Valor Equity Partners, as a major shareholder second only to Musk, owns over 500 million shares of SpaceX Class A stock, with an equity value range of about $90 billion to $140 billion; Peter Thiel's Founders Fund holds about 3.5% of the shares through multiple rounds of additional investments, and its paper gains have exceeded $60 billion; Fidelity, as one of the main institutions that co-invested in 2015, has an equity value of about $35 billion; even Sequoia Capital, which entered relatively late, has impressive returns, expected to exceed $20 billion.
As for Musk himself, he is also expected to become the world's first trillionaire.
Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett warned in a recent report that once super IPOs like SpaceX and OpenAI are realized, the weight of technology stocks in stock benchmark indices could easily exceed about 48%, surpassing all major historical bubble periods, such as the "Roaring Twenties" of the 1920s, the "Nifty Fifty" of the 1970s, the Japanese bubble of the 1980s, and the dot-com bubble of the 1990s.
However, such a huge valuation ultimately needs someone to take it over.
To reduce post-IPO sell-off pressure and maintain stock price stability, SpaceX has made certain adjustments. For instance, insider shares will adopt a phased unlocking mechanism, rather than the typical uniform six-month lock-up period commonly seen in IPOs; at the same time, the company has approved a stock split proposal of 1 for 5 to lower retail investor psychological barriers and improve liquidity. Musk has publicly stated that he will not sell any SpaceX shares.
But market concerns have not disappeared. Setting aside the uncertainties of the grand narrative about Mars, looking solely at the financial data, SpaceX still appears to be a company that is burning through cash rapidly. The prospectus indicates that in the first quarter of 2026 alone, SpaceX incurred a net loss of nearly $4.3 billion, almost equivalent to the previous year's total loss level. Meanwhile, Musk controls 85% of the absolute voting rights, meaning that the board can hardly dismiss him, and external shareholders can hardly push any significant business decisions.
To some extent, SpaceX is a highly Musk-ified company, with its valuation, governance, and even future expectations deeply bound to Musk personally.
When all early investors have already profited immensely, who else would like to buy at such a high price for this already ridiculously expensive space ticket?
Wall Street lays the fast track for indices, American pensions become the "payers"
American pensions may become the potential fuel for Musk's dream of space.
Wall Street has already begun to open a fast lane for super IPOs. On May 1 of this year, new Nasdaq rules officially took effect, allowing newly listed companies that enter the top 40 by market value in the Nasdaq 100 index to be incorporated into the index in just 15 trading days, while previously, this usually required about three months.
The S&P also launched a consultation in May, proposing to shorten the minimum listing time required for inclusion from 12 months to 6 months and considering waiving profitability requirements for ultra-large companies. FTSE Russell also relaxed restrictions, allowing large IPOs to be quickly assessed for inclusion in the Russell U.S. Equity Indexes (including Russell 1000, Top 200, etc.) on the fifth trading day after listing, without waiting for quarterly reviews.
The major indices in the U.S. quietly relaxed their rules, undoubtedly paving a specialized runway for SpaceX.
According to Business Insider, SpaceX could quickly enter mainstream indices and ETFs after going public, with the allocation of passive funds likely to surpass past large IPOs. For example, the CRSP index corresponding to Vanguard VTI and growth ETF VUG could potentially include SpaceX within five trading days after its listing; the Nasdaq 100 index tracked by QQQ could include SpaceX within 15 trading days after its listing; while the S&P 500 index tracked by SPY could be included in 2027 following the rule modification.
In the U.S. retirement system, a large amount of 401(k), pension, and long-term savings accounts adopt passive index investment strategies. Funds typically allocate assets automatically according to index constituents and their market value weight.
This strategy originated from the first index fund for ordinary investors launched by index fund pioneer John Bogle in 1976, with the core idea being to "replicate the market rather than beat the market." With extremely low management fees and high diversification, it has become the preferred allocation method for pensions and 401(k) accounts. As of now, the total retirement assets in the U.S. have exceeded $49 trillion.
This means thatonce SpaceX is included in the index, all funds tracking these benchmarks will be forced to buy in by weight, without analyzing valuations, judging bubbles, or even caring whether the company is profitable.
However, this game has sparked strong discontent within the pension system.
Not long ago, the American Federation of Teachers wrote to the SEC urging greater scrutiny of SpaceX's listing,warning that workers' lifelong savings could be manipulated by a company more like Musk's family business than a transparent public company.
At the same time, the three major public pension funds in the U.S. (CalPERS, New York State, and New York City pension systems), which manage over $1 trillion in assets, also jointly wrote to Musk, strongly opposing SpaceX's extreme governance structure, including super voting rights, a veto power over his own removal as CEO, and immunity from lawsuits.
They pointed out that Musk is simultaneously managing multiple companies, including SpaceX, Tesla, xAI, and Neuralink, which poses huge risks due to divided attention. The letter requested that SpaceX gradually shift to a one-share-one-vote system in the next seven years, establish a board with a majority of external shareholders, separate the roles of CEO and chairman, and remove Musk's self-veto power.
This modification of rules custom-made by Wall Street for the super IPO ultimately ties the retirement savings of tens of millions of Americans closely to Musk's grand space dreams. After early investors enjoy a hundredfold return, the remaining "takeover" costs are shifted to passive investors who are unable to make choices.
The largest "crash for old people" game in history, is officially starting under the name of the index.
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