The response of Bitcoin to this geopolitical crisis is highly dependent on a clear transmission chain: crude oil prices, government bond yields, the US dollar, and the pricing of Federal Reserve interest rates.

Written by: Blockchain Knight

Multiple indicators suggest that Bitcoin is at a delicate moment shaped by internal leverage vulnerabilities and external macro uncertainties.

Although short-term volatility has subsided, downward risks remain concentrated, and the hopes for de-escalation from US-Iran ceasefire negotiations are not sufficient to fundamentally alleviate the pressure that the interest rate environment exerts on risk assets.

Internally, the imbalance in leverage structures is becoming the most urgent hidden danger. Data shows that there is approximately $14.3 billion in potential liquidation pressure accumulated near Bitcoin's current price level, and it is highly unevenly distributed.

Long positions are densely clustered in a narrow range about 6% to 7% below the spot price, which means that once this support is breached, the decline in price could be sharply accelerated by a chain reaction of forced liquidations.

Spot demand has failed to provide effective hedging, with the US spot Bitcoin ETF recording approximately $2.26 billion in net outflows over two weeks, and the 30-day rolling flow returning to negative territory, indicating that institutional buying is fading.

Broader on-chain demand is also languishing, with demand indicators plummeting to their lowest levels this year, and stablecoins continuously experiencing net outflows from exchanges at an average daily loss of over $300 million.

This has caused the market to lose a crucial buffer for absorbing selling pressure, with short-term holders slipping from barely profitable to losses again, as their cost basis falls below long-term valuation; historically similar signals often indicate deeper corrections.

However, volatility indicators within the market show a different picture. The annualized realized volatility of Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest level since early 2026, suggesting that a phase of sharp turbulence is giving way to a relatively calm period. But this calm feels more like a waiting game rather than evidence that risk has dissipated.

In the external environment, the US-Iran situation is the biggest variable affecting the overall situation. New strikes by the US near the Strait of Hormuz have transformed a ceasefire that could have brought relief into a test of oil risks, inflation expectations, and the Federal Reserve's policy path.

Currently, both sides are discussing a 60-day ceasefire and nuclear negotiation framework, causing the market to momentarily trade under a scenario of easing, with oil prices retreating, inflation concerns alleviating, and risk appetite rising, while Bitcoin had a brief spike.

The response of Bitcoin to this geopolitical crisis is highly dependent on a clear transmission chain: crude oil prices, government bond yields, the US dollar, and the pricing of Federal Reserve interest rates.

If Brent crude oil remains below $100 and tanker traffic significantly returns to normal, then the inflation risk premium is likely to dissipate.

Currently, the market has significantly pushed back the interest rate cut timetable and has even begun to price in a rate hike at the end of 2026, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to ease policy before the risk of energy disruptions is completely resolved.

Overall, the 60-day negotiation window delineates two possible paths for Bitcoin. If an agreement is ultimately reached and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, then oil prices will decline and rate hike expectations will recede, providing macro support for Bitcoin and allowing it to break upward.

If negotiations are prolonged, tanker recovery is slow, and oil prices remain high throughout the summer, the Federal Reserve may have to adjust its policy direction. In this case, Bitcoin may bounce back with occasional positive news, but it will always struggle to break through on a macro level.