Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
Macroeconomic Market
The prospects for US-Iran talks have once again darkened, causing market risk aversion to rise. On Thursday, all three major US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones index falling 0.63% to 49,596.97 points, the S&P 500 index dropping 0.38% to 7,337.11 points, and the Nasdaq index slightly dipping 0.13% to 25,806.20 points.
The trading volume of S&P 500 call options reached a new high of $2.6 trillion yesterday. Specifically, nearly 60% of S&P 500 index options yesterday were call options. Bank of America pointed out that the current rise of the S&P 500 is reminiscent of the late 1920s and the dot-com bubble period, but the market pricing of tail risk options remains low, with a significant divergence from actual volatility.
Crude oil prices fell sharply by more than 5% yesterday but then quickly rebounded in a V-shape after stimuli from news of crossfire, ultimately slightly rising to around $100 per barrel. The spot price of Brent crude even dropped below the near-month futures. Max Layton, head of commodities at Citigroup, stated that oil prices will inevitably be driven by news and experience violent fluctuations before a clear agreement is reached.
Additionally, the offshore yuan rose above 6.80 yesterday, hitting a four-year high, with market bets on interest rate cuts within the year dropping to 20%. Currently, Wall Street is anxiously awaiting the upcoming non-farm payroll data, expected to show an addition of 62,000 jobs, which will be a key anchor point for determining the next macro direction. Economist David Payne believes that adding 60,000 to 80,000 jobs per month is sufficient to maintain stability in the labor market.
AI and Stock Market
Legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones explicitly pointed out that this AI bull market may just be halfway through, with an expected further rise of 40% in the next 1-2 years, but he also warned that valuations will enter an extremely insane phase.
On Thursday, the semiconductor sector faced overall pressure, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) falling 2.7%. Arm, with strong earnings expectations, plummeted 10% due to concerns over AI chip supply; Intel and AMD also fell about 3% simultaneously, while Broadcom and Alphabet experienced slight declines. The software sector welcomed a recovery, with Datadog's stock soaring 31% after raising its full-year earnings forecast, while CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks rose 8% and 7%, respectively.
After the US stock market closed, Nvidia announced its support for the mining company IREN's construction of a 5GW AI data center with an investment of $210 million (purchasing 30 million warrants at $70 each), causing IREN's stock to soar over 27% after hours. CoreWeave's Q1 earnings report showed a staggering year-on-year revenue increase of 112% to $2.078 billion, with a backlog of orders amounting to $99.4 billion; however, due to aggressive capital expenditures of $6.786 billion, net losses widened to $589 million, and the Q2 guidance fell short of expectations, leading to a more than 10% drop in its after-hours stock price.
Bitcoin Market
Bitcoin has shown strong recovery momentum after undergoing a deep washout, with its price rebounding from a low of $60,000 to $82,800, currently oscillating around the $79,500 mark. On-chain data indicates that BTC has successfully surpassed the real market average of $78,200 and the short-term holder cost baseline of $79,100. If bulls can hold this ground, the next key resistance level will be the active realization price of $85,200. The market shows that if Bitcoin fills the $84,100 CME gap, it will liquidate $3.4 billion in short positions; if it falls to $67,100, it could trigger $17 billion in long liquidations.
Although the 30-day net realized profit and loss average turned positive to 0.003% of market capitalization, long-term holders returned an average daily profit of $180 million and realized losses of $479 million, indicating that market selling pressure remains high. In the options market, 20,000 BTC options are set to expire today, with the maximum pain point at $79,500, a nominal value of $1.6 billion. Bitfinex analysts point out that the funding rate for perpetual contracts has reverted to neutral, and the short-term 35% implied volatility suggests potential covering risk for shorts.
Bearish Perspective
The core logic of this camp is that the recent rebound is merely a trap for attracting buyers in a bear market, and the potential decline in macro US stocks will drag down BTC, with the breach of key levels confirming false breakouts.
Greeny: The 35% rebound from the bottom resembles the bear market traps of 2018 and 2022; blindly taking bullish positions is extremely dangerous.
Anabel & LB: The breach of $80,000 and $79,600 confirms that the previous rise was just a liquidity deviation, with downside risks pointing straight to the $76,000-$74,000 range.
Minga & Astronomer: If unable to reclaim $84.2k or $80.5k, the short-term top will be established, targeting the monthly opening price of $76k.
Colin Talks Crypto: Price faced a clear rejection at the 200-day moving average, preparing to realize profits around $84.8k.
Bullish Perspective
The bullish camp is confident that the bottom allocation has been extremely sufficient, with continuous inflows into ETFs and breakthroughs in technical indicators, accumulating momentum toward reaching $100,000.
Bollinger Bands creator John Bollinger personally enters to buy, pointing out that BTC has completed its first breach of the Bollinger Bands upper limit ($81,549) on the daily chart in months.
Killa: If Bitcoin can hold above $78,500 (this week's opening price), it may further rise. However, if it falls below this level, long positions will be gradually increased in the $74.7K-$76.3K range, with short stop losses set at $84K.
Murphy: 440,000 BTC have accumulated around $66,000; the chip ratio in the $65,000-$78,000 range has reached 13.8%, establishing a more solid bottom structure than in the previous cycle.
Tom Lee: As long as May closes above $76,000, achieving an extremely rare three consecutive monthly bullish bands, the bear market will be declared completely over.
Ali Charts: The average cost of new whales is $80,300, and the leverage ratio has surged to 0.26 (a new high since 2025), indicating high market risk appetite.
IT Tech & MikybullCrypto: As long as the price breaks through and stabilizes in the resistance zone of $88,000 to $92,000, the target of $100,000 will be firmly on the table.
Max Trades & ctm_trader: A pullback to $75K-$76K is an excellent buying opportunity, with primary targets to fill the CME gaps at $78K and $84K.
Aylo: In a bear market, any Bitcoin priced below $70,000 (the pre-2021 high) has extremely high allocation value.
Key Data (as of May 8, 14:00 HKT)
(Data source: Coinank, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)
Bitcoin ETF: -$277 million, the first net outflow after 5 days of net inflow
Ethereum ETF: -$104 million
SOL ETF: +$6.6749 million
Fear and Greed Index: 46 (Neutral)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: JTO, BTC, B3, XRP, ETH
Sector Gains and Losses: The cryptocurrency market showed mixed results, with RWA rising 2.1% and SocialFi falling 2.9%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 86,151 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of $269 million, including $85.7 million in BTC liquidations, $59.97 million in ETH liquidations, and $19.31 million in TON liquidations.
Today's Outlook
Binance will remove 12 spot trading pairs including AVA/BTC and ENA/BTC on May 8
Space and Time (SXT) will unlock 387 million tokens on May 8, valued at approximately $6.1 million
US April unemployment rate: previous value 4.3%, expected value 4.3% (May 8, 20:30)
US April non-farm payroll change (10,000 people): previous value 178, expected value 63 (May 8, 20:30)
Today, the largest gains among the top 100 cryptocurrencies are: Siren up 27.5%, Internet Computer up 10.6%, World Liberty Financial up 8.6%, Ondo up 7.4%, Venice Token up 6.5%.
Hot News
Arbitrum DAO approves the release of approximately 30,800 frozen ETH for rsETH recovery work
Aptos Foundation and Aptos Labs will invest over $50 million to support ecological construction
Coinbase executive: The CLARITY Act may be reviewed as early as next week
Matrixport-related wallet sold 100,000 HYPE tokens again, cumulatively sold 200,000
ENS team deposited 1.46 million ENS to Coinbase, valued at $9.32 million
The US government deposited approximately $35,000 worth of UNI, CRO, and LINK to Coinbase Prime
AWS partners with Coinbase and Stripe to launch AI Agent USDC payment solution
Metalpha-related wallet deposited 27,000 ETH into Binance, valued at approximately $62.78 million
ZachXBT offers a $10,000 reward for clues related to LAB market manipulation
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