Trading Moment: Global Asset Frenzy, Bitcoin Breaks 80,000, 84,000 CME Gap Awaiting Closure

Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macroeconomic Market

Risk aversion eases, and global capital markets welcome a wave of festivities. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio announced the end of the "Epic Fury" operation, Trump suspended the "Freedom Plan", and the geopolitical alarm in the Middle East has been temporarily lifted.

The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 set new historical highs, South Korea's KOSPI index surged 6.45% to a peak of 7426 points, not only breaking the 7000-point barrier but even triggering the circuit breaker mechanism. The A-share market experienced a good opening after the May Day holiday, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board soaring over 9% during the day and the ChiNext Index rising by 3.65%.

The yen surged by 1.8% against the dollar on Wednesday during the Asian trading session, approaching the 155 mark and rebounding nearly 300 points from the day's low, suspected to be due to further intervention by Japanese authorities. On April 30, Japan implemented a $34.5 billion intervention, pushing the yen up by 3%. Goldman Sachs analysts predict that Japan's current reserves can support 30 interventions of similar scale, but officials may choose more opportune moments to act.

AI and Stock Market

The semiconductor and computing hardware supply chain has emerged as the biggest winner in this market surge. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed up 4.23%; AMD's first-quarter revenue increased by 38% to $10.3 billion, with data center business skyrocketing by 57%, driving its after-hours stock price up by over 16%.

Memory chips are regarded as the "hard currency" of AI infrastructure, with Micron Technology and SanDisk both surging over 10%, with market capitalizations surpassing $720 billion and $200 billion, respectively. Samsung Electronics saw its operating profit soar 756% in a single quarter, with stock prices jumping 14%, and market capitalization strongly exceeding $1.2 trillion, becoming the second Asian company after TSMC to reach this level; SK Hynix also recorded a gain of over 10%. Roundhill's Dave Mazza pointed out that the market has formed a consensus: memory chips are facing a structural shortage in the AI era, not cyclical fluctuations.

The "Big Seven" tech companies have been active, with Apple rising 2.66% due to talks with Intel for custom chip manufacturing and planning to open external AI services in iOS 27, which helped Intel's stock surge nearly 13%. Lumentum, a leading optical module company, also reported a full order book, with earnings reaching a new high of $808 million, and orders stretching until 2028. Meanwhile, Google secured a massive $200 billion computing power deal with Anthropic and is secretly developing the "Lobster" application; Meta, while building the "OpenClaw" assistant, issued $25 billion in bonds under pressure from decreasing demand.

Bitcoin Market

After experiencing three months of fluctuations, Bitcoin finally broke through the $80,000 mark during the May Day holiday and is currently attempting to break the 200-day exponential moving average. Strong buying in the spot ETF has been the biggest driver of this rally, with a cumulative inflow of $1.629 billion since May. In the options market, the demand premium for call options has exceeded that for put options by 24%, and miner revenue has rebounded to $37 per PH/s.

However, on-chain data shows that the daily active wallet count has dropped to 531,000, a two-year low. The cost line for short-term holders is now at $81,486, and exchange reserves have hit 2.685 million coins. This indicates that this market surge is primarily driven by institutional funds and existing speculation, lacking broad participation from retail investors.

Bearish Viewpoints

From the bearish camp's perspective, the current rise is merely a bear market rebound lacking structural support, as major funds manipulate emotions to entice and distribute.

Roman: Prices must inevitably plummet after a significant volume increase. The previous prediction of a fall to the $70,000 or even $60,000 range remains valid.

Data agencies Santiment and Zizcrypto: On-chain activity has dropped to a two-year low, with the number of whale addresses holding over 10,000 BTC stagnating around 88. A rise without new users and increased whale holdings is extremely fragile; once profit-taking occurs, the market will lose support.

Bullish Viewpoints

The bullish camp firmly believes that the frenzied accumulation by long-term holders and continuous inflows from ETFs have opened the door for Bitcoin to reach higher dimensions.

Killa: Currently, there are no bearish signals in the Bitcoin market structure. Only when Bitcoin drops below April's high and shows clear bearish signals will shorting become a rational choice. On the other hand, now is not an ideal time to seek to go long. The best entry point for long positions is during a strong pullback in the $74,000-75,000 range; I still hold my position and have set a stop loss at $84,000.
TedPillows: The gap near $84,000 on Bitcoin CME has not been filled yet. If BTC can hold above $80,600, it may further fill the CME gap; if it falls below $80,000, it could retrace to the $77,000-78,000 range.
Sykodelic: On-chain data shows that long-term holders are engaged in unprecedented crazy buying, with an additional 1 million BTC accumulated just last week, totaling 2 million coins (10% of total supply). This is a super signal that indicates the market will not create new lows.

Trader CryptoJack and Ash Crypto: U.S. stocks reaching new historical highs have opened imaginative space for the crypto market, and the exchange rate of BTC to gold has surged by 46%. If the daily line can stabilize above $81,300, Bitcoin will certainly explode to $85,000 or even $95,000.
On-chain expert Murphy: The net unrealized profit and loss (NRPL) has returned above the zero line, and the realized profit average in 24 hours has exceeded $62.95 million, breaking the volume-price divergence. This indicates that the market has a strong capacity for generating profits and is emerging from deep bear territory into a bull-bear transition period.
AlphaBTC and Michael van de Poppe: ETF funds have returned, and Bitcoin is undergoing a "liquidity hunt". The CME gap above $84,000 looks extremely enticing, and a bullish trend has been established.
Trader Don Wedge: The head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern is taking effect; once the daily level stands above the 200-day moving average, the upward trend will be fully confirmed.
Astronomer: Bullish positions have taken profits at $81,000, looking forward to a pullback to the $70,000 range to re-enter risk-free, with the overall trend still strongly bullish.

Don Wedge: The head-and-shoulders bottom formation at the daily level for Bitcoin is perfectly unfolding; as long as it stabilizes above the 200-day moving average, the bullish trend will be entirely established.

Market Dynamics

With the strengthening of the stock market storage sector, storage-type altcoins in the crypto market (such as AR, FIL, STORJ) have also begun to move, with STORJ rising over 30% in the past 24 hours.

In the privacy coin sector, ZEC has surged over 60% this month with the support of Multicoin. Multicoin founder Tushar Jain stated that, facing potential threats of wealth confiscation by the government, ZEC is the best asset against censorship. Analysts GEM DETECTER and Javon Marks also predict that the ZEC price is likely to break through $600 to $1,000.

Additionally, the TON ecosystem has reached a significant turning point. Founder Pavel Durov announced that Telegram will replace the foundation as the largest verification node for the network, reducing network fees by six times to nearly zero, and brand-new developer tools will soon be released. Stimulated by this favorable news, TON has surged over 60% since May 4, driving up the entire ecosystem's projects like NOT and DOGS.

Key Data (as of May 6, 14:00 HKT)

（Data sources: Coinank, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles）

Bitcoin ETF: +$467 million, sustained net inflow for 4 days
Ethereum ETF: +$97.5728 million, sustained net inflow for 3 days
SOL ETF: +$1.7425 million
XRP ETF: +$11.2766 million
Fear and Greed Index: 46 (neutral)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: WIF, BTC, ETH, XRP, ZIL
Sector performance: The crypto market is broadly up, with the SocialFi sector leading with over 13% increase

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 87,009 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $285 million, including $84.54 million for BTC, $29.67 million for ETH, and $44.83 million for ZEC.

Today's Outlook

Binance contracts will launch on May 6 for three U-based perpetual contracts: AMD, QCOM, and USAR
Bitcoin miner American Bitcoin will announce Q1 financial reports on May 6
Hyperliquid (HYPE) will unlock about 9.92 million tokens on May 6, valued at approximately $400 million
RedStone (RED) will unlock 40.85 million tokens on May 7, valued at approximately $5.5 million

Today, the largest increases among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap include: Zcash up 29.3%, SkyAI up 28.4%, Toncoin up 23.6%, BUILDon up 22.5%, Venice Token up 15.8%.

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