Powell's farewell, five earnings reports submitted, the variables of the cryptocurrency market are all squeezed into these few days

Written by: ChandlerZ, Foresight News

This week, the global financial markets entered a rare high-density event window, with the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and Bank of Canada announcing interest rate decisions from April 28 to May 2, and the market widely expects all five central banks to remain on hold. Meanwhile, five of the seven tech giants (Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple) will reveal their first-quarter earnings in quick succession, with a combined market value close to $16 trillion, accounting for about 44% of the total market capitalization of the S&P 500.

On April 27, the market already entered a wait-and-see mode ahead of time. The S&P 500 rose slightly by 0.12% to 6173.91 points, setting a new closing historical high; the Nasdaq rose 0.20%, hitting a new high for two consecutive days; the Dow fell slightly by 0.13%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 1.01%, ending a record 18 straight trading days of gains. Nvidia went against the trend, rising 4% to set a new historical high, while storage stocks SanDisk rose over 8%, Micron rose 5.6%, and AMD fell nearly 4%.

Bitcoin temporarily rose above $79,000, reaching a nearly three-month high, before quickly retreating to around $76,500, with a daily fluctuation of nearly 4%.

Powell's last interest rate meeting

On April 30, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, with the market pricing the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged at over 99%. The focus of this meeting is not only on the interest rate itself but also because it is likely to be Powell's last FOMC meeting as the chairman of the Federal Reserve, whose term will end on May 15.

On April 24, the U.S. Department of Justice announced the termination of the criminal investigation against Powell. Previously, Senator Tillis had substantially blocked the Senate's confirmation vote for Kevin Warsh, the nominee for the next Federal Reserve chairman, on the grounds that the investigation was not concluded. According to NBC News, Tillis withdrew his obstruction after receiving a direct assurance from the Department of Justice that "the investigation has been completely terminated." The Senate Banking Committee is expected to vote on Warsh's nomination on April 29, the same day as Powell's press conference.

According to FXStreet analysis, Powell is more likely to emphasize that policies should be data-driven and defend the independence of the central bank in his last press conference, rather than giving clear signals for rate cuts. The market is currently loosely pricing in one to two rate cuts in the second half of 2026, but once Warsh officially takes over, policy expectations may undergo recalibration.

The remaining four major central banks are also expected to maintain their interest rates:

• Bank of Canada: April 29, maintain at 2.25%, all 41 economists surveyed by Reuters expect no change
• European Central Bank: April 30, according to ING analysis, expected to maintain current interest rates, but the possibility of interest rate hikes in the summer is being discussed if oil prices remain high
• Bank of Japan: May 1, maintain at 0.75%, the market expects the next interest rate hike to be delayed until October
• Bank of England: April 30, expected to maintain at 3.75%

Nvidia's new high and the settlement moment of $645 billion in AI capital expenditure

Prior to this week's earnings announcements, Nvidia, the barometer of the AI narrative, was the first to make its position clear. On Monday, Nvidia rose 4% to set a new historical high, with a market value exceeding $5.2 trillion, becoming the first chip company to cross this threshold. Nvidia's Q1 revenue was $44.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 69%, with a net profit of $18.775 billion. Revenue from the data center business was $39.1 billion, accounting for 89% of total revenue, and is the core driver. CEO Jensen Huang believes that by 2027, global computing demand will exceed $1 trillion, and the cost and efficiency of generating tokens directly determine the revenue and survival of tech companies.

On Wednesday after the U.S. market closes, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta will release their first-quarter earnings on the same day, with Apple following up on Thursday. According to consensus expectations compiled by Zacks Investment Research, the overall Q1 earnings expectation for the seven tech giants is a year-on-year growth of 20.3%, with revenue growth of 22%.

According to a recent research report and related industry forecasts released by JPMorgan, the capital expenditure in the AI field of the four major U.S. cloud giants—Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft—is rapidly expanding, with total capital expenditure expected to reach about $645 billion in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 56%.

The core question of concern in the market is whether such a massive capital expenditure is generating quantifiable returns. Veteran strategist Louis Navellier stated that the outlook for the seven giants and their capital expenditure plans will be key to maintaining market momentum. Bloomberg macro strategist Kristine Aquino warned that whether the tech giants' substantial AI investments have generated real returns is a critical variable that makes the support for this year's stock market rally seem quite fragile.

The long-short battle before Bitcoin hits $80,000

BTC fell from a high of $79,000 on April 28 to $76,500, a daily drop of about 3.04%, consistent with the overall rising risk aversion.

From on-chain data, BTC is at a key technical position. Glassnode's report indicates that the cost basis for short-term holders is $80,100, which is the average cost for all buyers over the past 155 days. If BTC rises to this level, more than 54% of recent buyers will return to a profitable state. The area between $78,000 and $80,100 constitutes an important short-term resistance level, and as the market digests this selling pressure above, $70,000 is gradually becoming a forming mid-term support level.

In late April, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw cumulative inflows of over $2 billion within eight trading days. BlackRock's IBIT continued to dominate, with monthly inflows reaching $2.14 billion, ranking first among all ETFs in the U.S. Morgan Stanley's MSBT, which went live on April 8, recorded an inflow of $71 million in its first complete trading week. According to CoinDesk, this round of ETF absorption is about nine times the new output of miners during the same period, indicating that institutional demand is systematically digesting new supply. The BTC reserves on exchanges have simultaneously dropped to a seven-year low, and the accumulation of whales has reached a thirteen-year high.

This week, the macro transmission paths for the cryptocurrency market mainly have two aspects: On the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, BTC has fallen after seven out of eight FOMC meetings in 2025, forming a stable “all good news has been priced in” pattern. According to CoinGecko's statistics, even during the rate-cutting cycle, the priced expectations often trigger a profit-taking after the decision is announced. After the FOMC meeting in January 2026, which maintained interest rates unchanged, BTC dropped from $90,400 to $83,383 within 48 hours, a decline of 7.3%.

More noteworthy is the change in policy expectations after Powell. JPMorgan's chief economist Michael Feroli predicts that after Warsh takes over, rate cuts will be pushed, arguing that AI-driven productivity improvements are creating a deflationary environment, opening up space for accommodative policies. If rate cuts are realized in the second half of the year, improving liquidity conditions will become a mid-term positive for the cryptocurrency market.

Regarding tech earnings, the rolling correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 rose to 0.52 in 2025, while it was only 0.23 in 2024, reaching 0.75 at one point in early 2026. According to Benzinga analysis, the seven tech giants, software stocks, and BTC have formed "one trade", amplifying returns synchronously during the rise from 2024 to 2025, and also bearing pressure together during the recent pullback. If this week's earnings reports show that AI capital expenditure returns fall short of expectations, the contraction of risk appetite will transmit from tech stocks to the cryptocurrency market; conversely, strong performance could push BTC to break the key $80,000 level, opening up upside potential.