Original Author: Nick Devor

Original Translation: Peggy, BlockBeats

"Is Musk running for president?" Polymarket traders just can't help but bet on this.

Last month, Polymarket held a "war room" event at a bar in Washington, D.C., where visitors could see real-time market odds live. (Théo Marie-Courtois / AFP via Getty Images)

The winner of the 2028 U.S. presidential election is already a popular prediction market on Polymarket. The combined trading volume of event contracts related to the three front runners—JD Vance, Gavin Newsom, and Marco Rubio—has reached $35 million. However, Polymarket traders seem to prefer betting on "dark horse" candidates, including some who are constitutionally barred from serving as president.

CEO Elon Musk has attracted $23 million in bets on Polymarket's 2028 election market; New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani has also seen related trading reach $18 million. Both are not native-born U.S. citizens and, therefore, are not qualified to take the presidential oath. Polymarket gives them winning probabilities below 1%, which reflects real-world restrictions, but their total trading volume far exceeds typical percentages without reflecting this.

According to an analysis by Barron's of publicly available Polymarket data, presidential candidates with winning probabilities less than 1% have collectively generated about $386 million in trading volume. These "super long shots" account for more than two-thirds of the total trading volume related to the 2028 election.

It is still unclear why traders are willing to spend money on these extremely unlikely candidates, or even those who are not eligible to run at all. This phenomenon also seemingly contradicts Polymarket CEO and founder Shayne Coplan's public statements about the platform's purpose. He once described his platform as a "global truth machine" in the realm of elections.

In the 2028 election market, the most crowded single transaction actually belongs to basketball superstar LeBron James. Transactions related to him have reached $48 million, accounting for 9% of the total market trading volume. The second-highest trading volume is for current Minnesota Governor Tim Walz—who has signaled he is stepping back from electoral politics. In third place is Kim Kardashian, with related trading volume of $34 million.

Polymarket's trading volume is highly concentrated on non-traditional candidates, some of whom are simply not eligible to run for president.

Across multiple markets, Polymarket's trades are clearly skewed towards "dark horse candidates." In markets related to the 2028 presidential election, the upcoming World Cup, and the NBA championship, candidates or participants with less than 1% chance of winning account for approximately 70% of total trading volume.

When asked why "long shot bets" are so popular on the platform, Polymarket declined to comment.

Some Polymarket traders interviewed by Barron's offered an explanation: Polymarket is expected to mint and distribute a cryptocurrency token to users sometime this year. These traders speculate that the number of tokens users ultimately receive may be tied to overall trading activity. Thus, betting small amounts on unlikely outcomes like "Kardashian for president" could help boost their metrics.

As much as 70% of the trading volume on Polymarket is placed on competitors with less than 1% odds of winning.

Polymarket has confirmed the upcoming token launch. "There will be tokens, and there will be airdrops," Polymarket Chief Marketing Officer Matthew Modabber stated in an October podcast interview. However, as of now, Polymarket's official stance on how the tokens will be distributed remains unclear, and the company has declined to provide further clarification.

Polymarket's preference for "dark horse candidates" appears to be an outlier in the world of prediction markets. On its competitor Kalshi, trading volume in the presidential election winner market is clearly concentrated on popular candidates.

In Kalshi's presidential election market, bets on Marco Rubio account for 10.6% of total trading volume; on Polymarket, this figure is only 1.7%. Tim Walz's trading share on Kalshi is just 0.7%, while on Polymarket it is as high as 7.4%. As for LeBron James, Kim Kardashian, and Michelle Obama—leading in trading volume on Polymarket—they do not appear at all in Kalshi's market.

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