Author: ShenChao TechFlow

U.S. Stocks: Ceasefire + Earnings Reports, Wall Street Popped Open a Bottle of Champagne

On Wednesday, Wall Street relaxed for the first time in a while.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 340.65 points (+0.69%) at 49,490.03 points, the S&P 500 rose 1.05% to 7,137.90 points, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.64% to 24,657.57 points, both of the latter hitting historical highs. The Nasdaq also saw an intraday record high, making it the first index to recover lost ground in this round of the Iran war market. The Russell 2000 small-cap stocks rose 0.74%, and the VIX volatility index fell 2.97% to 18.92, indicating a continued retreat of panic sentiment.

The momentum came from two directions simultaneously.

First, Trump announced an indefinite extension of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire after the close, using rather peculiar wording, stating that the Iranian government is "severely divided" and will wait for Tehran to submit a "unified proposal" before deciding the next step. But regardless of the wording, the market focused on the conclusion: missiles will not fly for now.

Second, the earnings season continued to exceed expectations. GE Vernova (GEV) surged 8% that day, with Q1 performance and guidance both surpassing expectations. The logic behind this is simple: the demand for electrical equipment in data centers is booming, and the AI arms race has spread from chips to generators and transformers. United Airlines (UAL) rose about 1.5%, with its quarterly report exceeding expectations, although the Q2 EPS guidance was slightly below expectations, with high oil prices gnawing at airline profits.

Tech stocks overall outperformed the market. The semiconductor sector (SOX index) has rebounded 35% from the March 30 low this week, reaching a new phase high. Nvidia continued to rise this week, extending its historical record of 11 consecutive days of gains.

The most exciting single stock this week is the one the shorts least wanted to see: Tesla.

After market hours on April 22, Tesla delivered its Q1 2026 report card.

Non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.41, exceeding expectations of $0.37. Revenue was $2.238 billion, exceeding expectations of $2.228 billion. Gross margin was 21.1%, a year-on-year increase of 478 basis points, reaching the highest level in recent years. After hours, the stock price jumped nearly 4%, touching $405.

These numbers are a bit subtle. Year-on-year, revenue grew by 16%, and EPS increased by 52%, which looks great. But this can't hold back people comparing horizontally: last quarter (Q4 2025) revenue was $24.9 billion, while this quarter it was only $22.4 billion, a significant sequential decline. The energy business's quarterly revenue was $2.41 billion, down 12% year-on-year. Deliveries totaled 358,023 vehicles, which was a full 50,000 fewer than the production amount, and inventory continues to accumulate.

Musk's key information on the conference call was that Capex will spend $25 billion for the entire year, which is $5 billion higher than the early year expectations and about three times that of the entire year of 2025. CFO Taneja directly informed investors that the company's free cash flow for the remaining time this year will be negative. As soon as the news broke, the stock price fell back from its high in after-hours trading.

However, even so, this financial report is already "sufficient", at least temporarily shutting down those voices saying Tesla's core business is collapsing. This year, TSLA has already cumulatively dropped about 14%, placing it at the bottom of MAG7. The outperformance this time provides a breathing opportunity for the bulls.

Oil Prices and Gold: The Ceasefire "Inflation Tax" Has Not Retreated

The ceasefire has been extended, but ships still cannot enter the Strait of Hormuz.

On Wednesday, WTI crude oil continued to rise, touching the $93/barrel range during the day, while Brent crude exceeded $101/barrel. Iran made it clear: the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen under the continued interception of ships by the U.S. Navy. On the same day, Iran reportedly fired on three container ships crossing the strait. The images of the skirmish quickly spread in the shipping circle, and it has become normal for tankers heading west from Asia to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope.

The current market estimates the supply loss due to the closure of the strait at between 4 to 5 million barrels per day, roughly equivalent to 5% of global supply. This gap is unsolvable in the short term.

Gold rose to $4,758/ounce on April 22, up 0.82%, but is down nearly 10% from before the war broke out. The reasoning is quite unusual; rising oil prices have heightened inflation expectations, and a stronger dollar has suppressed gold's safe-haven premium. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve chair candidate Kevin Warsh attended a Senate hearing, claiming to "maintain independence" and calling for the establishment of a new inflation response framework, but he did not provide specific measures. The market remains unclear on Warsh's monetary policy direction, adding extra uncertainty to U.S. Treasuries and gold.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Surges to an 11-Week High, BlackRock Quietly Accumulated 800,000 Coins

The biggest player in the crypto market this week isn't retail investors; it's BlackRock.

Data from CoinGecko shows that Bitcoin rose 3.77% on April 22 to $78,568, reaching an 11-week high, trading in the range of $76,000-$79,000. Ethereum followed suit, and the total global crypto market cap rebounded to about $2.70 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $121 billion. Bitcoin's market share is 58.1%.

Meanwhile, one number is quietly circulating in the institutional circle: the holdings of BlackRock's IBIT spot ETF have quietly surpassed 806,700 BTC, worth about $63.7 billion, setting a record for the ETF. The Ethereum spot ETF has recorded net inflows for 9 consecutive trading days. In the past week, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw net inflows of over $200 million in a single day, marking five consecutive days of positive inflows.

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) purchased 34,164 BTC for $2.54 billion on April 20, which is its largest single purchase since the end of 2024.

The underlying logic of market sentiment is experiencing a subtle shift: as the Iran war causes cracks in the physical supply chain, and as gold weakens due to declining inflation expectations, funds are beginning to reassess Bitcoin's pricing logic as a "digital hard currency." BlackRock is providing answers with actual buying.

Today's Summary: A Ceasefire Buys Time, But Oil Prices Have Not Relented

On April 22, Trump announced the indefinite extension of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, providing the market with a sense of security, but the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and the supply gap has not been bridged:

U.S. Stocks: The S&P 500 closed up 1.05% at 7,137.90 points, and the Nasdaq rose 1.64% to 24,657.57 points, both of which reached historical highs. The earnings season provided a second line of support, with GE Vernova soaring 8% and Tesla's Q1 earnings exceeding expectations.

Oil Prices/Gold: WTI crude maintained in the $92-93/barrel range, with Brent surpassing $101. Gold rebounded slightly to $4,758 but is still down nearly 10% from before the war. The ceasefire did not lead to lower prices; with the strait closed for a day, the premium will not disappear.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin rose to $78,568, an 11-week high. BlackRock's IBIT holdings set a record of 806,700 BTC, as institutions are quietly shifting their inflation hedging chips from gold to Bitcoin.

The market is now only concerned with one question: When will Iran submit that "unified proposal"?

If negotiations make substantive progress in the next two weeks, the Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil prices fall back, and the stock market will see another wave of catch-up, with tech stocks and airline stocks benefitting first. If negotiations stall, the oil price at $100 per barrel will push inflation expectations to a level that the Federal Reserve cannot ignore, at which point the current historical high would become the most expensive entry ticket.

At least for today, one thing is already certain: Institutional capital's bets on the outcome of this war have not ceased; they have simply changed direction, from selling U.S. stocks to buying Bitcoin.