Bernstein analysts cut price targets Monday on Coinbase, Robinhood, and blockchain lending firm Figure Technology Solutions, citing geopolitical headwinds and weak crypto sentiment.
But the analysts maintained "Outperform" ratings on all three companies, despite the reductions.
"In our view, these businesses offer exposure to trillion dollar markets with years of growth ahead—prediction markets, stablecoins, tokenized real world assets, crypto derivatives, and further beta on crypto recovery from the bottom," they wrote. "We believe, we will see a bottom in crypto stocks into weak Q1 earnings."
The stocks are trading roughly 60% below their 2025 peaks, according to the note, written by analyst Gautam Chhugani. Bernstein lowered its price target on Coinbase (COIN) to $330 from $440, on Robinhood (HOOD) to $130 from $160, and on Figure (FIGR) to $67 from $72.
Coinbase, currently trading around $160, faces the most direct crypto exposure of the three. Spot volumes are tracking roughly 30% below Q4 2025 levels, and Bernstein cut its 2026 earnings per share estimate by 44% to $5.97. Still, the firm projects a 26% revenue compound annual growth rate through 2027, citing the firm's stablecoin revenue.
The San Francisco-based exchange receives roughly half of Circle's USDC income, and has been rapidly scaling its derivatives business following its acquisition of Deribit.
Robinhood and Figure will have an easier time rebounding because of their more limited exposure to crypto prices, Bernstein analysts argued.
"We see stronger resilience particularly in HOOD and FIGR given revenues unlinked to crypto recovery—Figure is a pure blockchain tokenization business. Crypto is mere ~20% of HOOD revenues," they wrote.
The analysts expect prediction markets to emerge as a meaningful revenue driver for Robinhood in 2026, projecting roughly $586 million in contributions—a 286% jump year-over-year—supported by its Kalshi distribution deal and proprietary exchange Rothera, a joint venture with Susquehanna.
Figure, a pure-play blockchain tokenization platform, crossed $1 billion in monthly loan origination volume in March, Bernstein noted, and is expanding beyond its core home equity line of credit business into auto loans, small business lending, and tokenized equities. The company went public in September at a $5.3 billion valuation.
Robinhood (HOOD) recently traded around $64, down about 3% on the day, while FIGR is down less than 1% to under $31 per share.
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