Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

U.S. Stocks: Wall Street Finally Emerges from the Shadow of Iran

On Wednesday, Wall Street finally took a rare breath after four weeks.

What drove the market was not any financial report or a statement from Federal Reserve officials, but a document—a 15-point ceasefire proposal submitted by the U.S. to Iran. Israel’s Channel 12 simultaneously reported that Washington was seeking to implement a month-long ceasefire. When the news dropped, Dow futures jumped more than 0.9%, oil prices fell below a critical line, and the entire market sentiment had already switched direction before the opening.

Brent crude oil fell more than 4% at the beginning, dropping below $100 per barrel, while stock markets in Japan, South Korea, Australia, and other Asia-Pacific regions rose accordingly, with U.S. stock index futures all rising over 0.7%.

The foundation of this surge is the extreme repression that had suffocated the market in the previous days. On Tuesday (March 24), alarms were ringing again: the Dow fell 84 points to 46,124, the S&P 500 dropped 0.37% to close at 6,556, and the Nasdaq fell 0.84%—the deepest decline, heavily dragged down by the technology and communications sectors. On that day, energy, materials, and utilities were among the few sectors in the S&P 11 that held onto green; most others fell.

In contrast over the two days, the perspective was completely different. On Monday, a "productive talks" tweet from Trump flipped the shorts; while on Wednesday, a specific plan was presented, injecting a more substantial optimistic expectation into the market.

On the individual stock level, tech stocks still hadn’t shaken off their internal worries. Oracle had retreated over 50% from its September high, ServiceNow fell nearly 6%, Salesforce dropped over 6.5%, and Microsoft was down nearly 3%. The news of Amazon launching new AI tools continued to suppress the software sector—software ETFs (IGV) have dropped 23% so far this year, hitting a new low since February 25.

However, on March 25, the long-awaited rebound window finally opened.

In terms of sentiment indicators, the VIX volatility index reported 26.95 on Tuesday, having fallen from above 30 since the outbreak of war, but still well above normal levels. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continued to rise to 4.39%, representing another crack derived from this war—historically, geopolitical risks often draw funds into U.S. Treasuries, lowering yields, but this Middle Eastern conflict of 2026 has been the opposite. The market's expectations for rate cuts this year plummeted from 95% a month ago to about 5%, and instead, there is nearly a 40% chance priced in for at least one rate hike.

This is the truly alarming crack: the double squeeze of oil price wars and inflation expectations has almost reduced the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting space to zero.

Gold and Oil Prices: One Plummets, One Soars Against the Trend

On Wednesday, the commodity market staged a duet of opposing directions.

Oil Prices: Ceasefire Expectations Create a Big Pit

WTI crude oil reported about $87.60 per barrel during the session, down more than 5%, and Brent crude also sharply dropped back below $100. The catalyst was clear and direct: the news of the U.S. submitting a ceasefire proposal led the market to start to prematurely cash in on expectations of the war's end.

However, there is a logical pitfall worth pointing out: the Strait of Hormuz has not fully resumed passage, and Iran has not officially responded to this proposal, yet oil prices have already outpaced reality. In the past few weeks, similar "pre-runs" have occurred twice—on March 23 (Monday), the same day that Trump posted, Brent plunged nearly 11% in a single day; when the war reignited on Tuesday, oil prices surged back. This back-and-forth rhythm tells us that the market's nerve endings are almost entirely tied to a single social media post from Trump.

Gold: Breaking the Logic of "Must Fall in War"

Spot gold soared almost 3.7% on Wednesday, reporting about $4,563 per ounce; silver also surged, rising about 6.66%.

This movement needs explanation because it is counterintuitive. The recent downward trend in gold was a product of the logic chain: oil prices soaring → inflation expectations rising → dollar strengthening → gold pressured. However, the plummet in oil prices on Wednesday interrupted this chain, the dollar weakened accordingly, and the logic for going long on gold was reactivated, with capital flooding in.

Deeper structural support lies in the fact that gold had reached a record high of $5,600 per ounce earlier this year, and even after experiencing a pullback, it still operates in a high range, demonstrating stronger resilience than Bitcoin. The continued accumulation of gold reserves by central banks worldwide formed a bottom support that transcends the war cycle.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Grinding Around $70,000, but Bernstein Calls "Bottom is in"

Bitcoin reported about $70,888 on Wednesday, with a daily increase of about 0.28%, maintaining fluctuations around the $70,000 mark.

The backdrop of this price level is worth noting: Bitcoin has retreated over 40% from last October's historical high of about $126,000. Yet in a broadly red environment, Bitcoin's performance has proven to be relatively resilient—it has shown certain "alternative safe haven" characteristics in recent weeks, especially during the peak of geopolitical risk in the Middle East, with funds flowing from traditional safe-haven assets into Bitcoin.

On the institutional front, the situation is quietly shifting. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani released a report on Monday, clearly stating, "We believe Bitcoin has bottomed out and is moving upward," maintaining the year-end target price of $150,000. He noted that the ETF net outflows at the beginning of the year have reversed, and spot ETFs currently hold about 6.1% of the total Bitcoin supply; the digital asset "Treasury Enterprise" Strategy holds about 3.6% of the total supply and remains a strong buyer.

The Fear and Greed Index recently reported 25 (extreme fear), with Bitcoin's market share around 58.8%, and the global total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies approximately $2.52 trillion.

Another line worthy of attention is: Circle (CRCL) plummeted about 20% on Tuesday, marking the largest single-day drop in history, triggered by the new draft of the "Stablecoin Clarity Act"—reportedly, the bill may prohibit platforms from providing any form of "yield" for holding stablecoins, posing a direct threat to Circle's business model. Coinbase also fell over 8% on the same day. Regulatory variables are becoming a looming sword of Damocles over the crypto market.

Today's Summary: The Ceasefire Plan Changed the Pricing Logic of the Day, but the War Continues

On March 25, the U.S. submitted a 15-point ceasefire proposal to Iran, and the market cashes in on the good news:

U.S. Stocks: After continuous pressure, they welcomed a rebound, with futures indices rising 0.7%-1%, driven by the expectations of a ceasefire, but the internal injuries of the AI software sector are difficult to heal in the short term.

Oil Prices/Gold: WTI crude fell more than 5% to about $87.6 per barrel, Brent dropped back below $100; gold, however, surged nearly 3.7% to about $4,563, as the chain of oil price inflation broke, leading to relief for gold.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin steadied around $70,000, with Bernstein loudly announcing the bottom is in, while institutions are increasingly sending signals to accumulate at lower prices, but the regulatory clouds hovering over stablecoins present new suppressive variables.

The market is now only concerned with one question: Will Iran accept this 15-point plan?

If Tehran responds positively within the week, oil prices will accelerate to fall below $80, and rate expectations will shift back toward easing, allowing the tech stocks that were driven into a pit by the war to stage the most vigorous counterattack. If Iran refuses or remains silent, Wednesday's rebound will, like previous instances, be fleeting, and the market will quickly return to panic mode.

This war has lasted nearly a month, and the market has evolved to accurately identify "true signals" versus "false signals." One document is not enough; the real turning point requires the vessels in the Strait of Hormuz to move again.