Translation: Baihua Blockchain

Bitcoin performed strongly this week,with an increase of nearly 10% ,currently up about9.38% .This trend reflects the market rebound after recent uncertainties.

As initial shocks from geopolitical tensions begin to calm down,some investors are reevaluating the role of Bitcoin in the current environment.Periods of conflict often lead to increased government spending,thereby exacerbatinginflation.

In this context,the supply of fixed assets tends to become increasingly attractive.Bitcoin'ssupply cap of 21 million coins means it will not expand like traditional currencies due to monetary devaluation, which is increasingly attractive for investors seekinglong-term currency depreciation.

Figure 1: BTC has shown an upward trend over the past week.

From a technical perspective, BTC is trying tobreak through the sideways range of the past six weeks.If the breakout is successful, it could open up space close to$80,000.If the breakout fails, there is still a risk of testingthe 200-week moving average and **Realized Price**, as these indicators have not yet been impacted in this bear market.

Figure 2: Current technical outlook.

Therefore, if prices can break out significantly,the upside target is the $80,000 area (i.e., the bottom of the range for Q4 2025). On the downside,the 200-week moving average is at $59,000,and the Realized Price is $54,500.

Matt Hougan: The Logic and Barriers to $1,000,000

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes that many Bitcoin valuation models overlook a critical assumption: they treat the "store of value" market as static.History shows that wheneconomic pressures rise, the total pool of assets aimed at preserving wealth often expands.

Concerns aboutdebt, ongoing monetary expansion, andgeopolitical instability are driving investors toward assets designed to preserve value. Traditionally,gold has dominated this role; however, Bitcoin is increasingly entering this focal discussion.

Figure 3: Global M2 money supply vs. BTC.

A major structural driver isthe expansion of global liquidity. As central banks increaseM2 money supply, more funds will seek scarce assets that can preserve value over time.Bitcoin'sfixed supply of 21 million coins fundamentally distinguishes it from benchmark currencies that can expand under stimulus policies. Hougan pointed out that if global liquidity continues to increase, and Bitcoin gains a larger share in the store of value market, a price of$1,000,000 is reasonable in the long term.

However, this path is not a certainty.

Figure 4: Gold vs. Bitcoin prices.

Recent market performance highlights the competition. In the past few months,gold has outperformed Bitcoin, suggesting that in times of extreme uncertainty, investors still prefer traditional safe-haven tools.

Figure 5: The largest asset classes globally.

Additionally,the scale of Bitcoin relative to major assets is still shrinking. The market capitalization of gold still vastly exceeds that of Bitcoin, which means that cryptocurrencies need todemonstrate their significant contribution to global wealth to approach a valuation of $1,000,000.

Higher interest rates, improved economic stability, or adoption rates could delay this transition. But Hougan insists that if monetary expansion continues and Bitcoin gains broader institutional recognition, itslong-term upward potential remains substantial.

This article link: https://www.hellobtc.com/kp/du/03/6257.html

Source: https://bmpro.substack.com/p/matt-hougan-cio-bitwise-why-bitcoin