What to know : Institutional investors have largely held onto their bitcoin ETF positions despite a roughly 50 percent price drop since October 2025, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan. Hougan argues that because bitcoin remains a non-consensus asset, institutions willing to allocate to it face career risk and therefore tend to have unusually high conviction, making their capital "very sticky" even in volatile markets. Citing this resilience, Hougan reaffirmed his long-term outlook that bitcoin could reach $1 million if the global store-of-value market continues to expand.
Institutional investors may be proving more resilient bitcoin holders than critics expected, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, who says ETF flow data suggests professional investors have largely held onto their positions during the crypto market’s steep decline.
“The best evidence we have is in the ETF market,” Hougan said. “Bitcoin ETFs accumulated roughly $60 billion in net flows from their launch in January 2024 through October 2025. Since October 2025, prices are down 50%, but we've seen less than $10 billion in outflows from ETFs.”
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted roughly $60 billion in net inflows between their launch in January 2024 and October 2025, Hougan told CoinDesk. Since then, the cryptocurrency’s price has fallen about 50%, yet ETFs have seen less than $10 billion in outflows.
“In other words, despite a punishing bear market, professional investors have proven to be ‘diamond hands’ in bitcoin,” he said.Hougan's Bitwise offers a suite of digital asset investment products, including the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB). BITB has just under $3 billion in assets under management. The leading spot bitcoin ETF, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has more than $55 billion in AUM.
Bitcoin remains a ‘non-consensus asset’
Hougan said the data challenge a common criticism that institutional investors, often considered more sensitive to macroeconomic shocks and liquidity cycles, could sell their bitcoin exposure quickly during periods of market stress. However, he added, the opposite dynamic may be at play currently.
“Despite its progress in recent years, bitcoin remains a non-consensus asset,” he said. “Institutional investors who buy bitcoin today are still sticking their neck out and standing out from their peers.”
That career risk means institutions allocating to bitcoin today tend to have unusually strong conviction in the asset, said the CIO at Bitwise, a San Francisco-based company with over $15 billion in client assets under management.
That career risk means institutions allocating to bitcoin today tend to have unusually strong conviction in the asset, said the CIO at Bitwise, a San Francisco-based company with over $15 billion in client assets under management.
“As a result, the institutional investors who decide to allocate have very high conviction,” Hougan said. “They are not 51% convinced bitcoin is a good idea; they are 80% or 90% convinced. Otherwise, they wouldn't take the risk.”
Because of that dynamic, he said he believes institutional capital could remain “very sticky” even during volatile market cycles “for the foreseeable future.”
The $1 million BTC question
Hougan said the behavior of institutional investors during downturns strengthens his long-term $1 million bitcoin outlook, on which he doubled down in the interview.
“The wildest thing about my $1 million prediction is that it's not wild at all,” Hougan said. “All you need for bitcoin to get to $1 million is for the global store of value market to continue to grow as it has for the past 20 years and for bitcoin to become a minor but material part of that market.”
For Hougan, the resilience of institutional investors through volatile market cycles is part of that broader maturation process.
“It just needs what's been happening for the past 10-20 years to keep happening for the next 10 years, and we'll get there,” he said.
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