Author: Murphy

Since Coinbase's BTC balance is closely related to ETF net inflows/outflows, I will focus more on Binance's data as it is closer to real demand (excluding ETFs) in the short term.

As seen in Figure 1, there are two significant balance increases during the periods of 10/21-11/22 in 2025 and 1/15-2/20 in 2026, which correspond to two major price drops in BTC. After 11/22/2025, the balance decreased by 34,145 BTC, while the BTC price stabilized, shifting from a rapid decline to a range-bound and slight rebound.

Figure 1: BTC Balance on Binance Exchange

This aligns with the current trend; since 2/20/2026, Binance's BTC balance has decreased by 25,135 BTC, coinciding with the military conflict between the U.S. and Iran, with the BTC price overall remaining stable, showing neither a sharp drop nor a significant rise.

Do these BTC transfers from Binance represent real demand? My personal opinion is "yes," or rather, "mostly yes."

This can be seen in the structural differences from the "net transfer volume by scale." During this period, the main bulk of transfers was not by super large holders with single transfers over $10 million, but rather by groups transferring between $1 million and $10 million.

Figure 2: Net Transfer Volume on Binance (By Scale)

We know that transfers by super large holders often involve institutional behaviors such as market makers or custodians, while the $1 million to $10 million range is more inclined towards high-net-worth investors and individual whales accumulating chips.

At the same time, from Binance’s BTC spot trading volume deviation (CVD), we can see a very steep curve trend. CVD measures the net difference in spot trading volume, especially highlighting volume differences when buyers or sellers actively initiate transactions.

Figure 3: BTC Spot Trading Volume Deviation (Binance)

The algorithm I used here compares the 30-day average to the 90-day median's deviation, providing a larger time scale to smooth out fluctuations from any one day. Therefore, a steep curve indicates that the active buying pressure in the spot market during this period is significantly stronger.

This also somewhat corroborates the earlier speculation that the current phase leans more toward real on-site demand rather than market maker activity. Additionally, the recent USDC/USDT exchange rate has dropped below 1 from high levels, indicating a greater demand based on purchasing power with USDT.

This explains why, despite the ongoing military conflict between the U.S. and Iran, and employment data intensifying concerns about the economy falling into stagflation/recession, BTC prices have managed to remain stable overall.

Of course, these are merely short-term data performances. If viewed from a higher dimension, one would find that at a larger scale, CVD is still overall in a downward phase, similar to the trend before May 2022.

Figure 4: BTC Spot Trading Volume Deviation (Binance)

After May 2022, the CVD curve began to diverge from the price, with lows consistently rising, from a severe deviation from the 90-day median to drawing closer, indicating the trend of active buying is beginning to recover, and demand is making a strong return. Of course, this will be a lengthy transformation process.

Combining with the cautious attitude of the on-chain whale entities we observed a few days ago towards macro uncertainties, my viewpoint is: in the short term, stage-wise support for demand may keep BTC in a range-bound or slight rebound trend; but from a longer-term perspective, it remains in a downward trend; the current demand recovery is still in the early stage, and the mid-term may need to endure a longer structural repair process.

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