Original Author: Wang Wushi

HashKey is a rare licensed digital asset trading platform in Hong Kong that combines retail licenses, stablecoin arrangements, and traditional financial access, poised to seize first-mover advantage in the global wave of Web3 compliance, institutionalization, and popularization.

License and Location Moat: As one of the first licensed virtual asset trading platforms in Hong Kong open to retail users, HashKey accounts for over 75% of the market share of local licensed platforms. Leveraging Hong Kong as a pivot, it accelerates its expansion into global markets such as Bermuda, Dubai, and the European Union, positioning itself for the "onshore" super cycle.

HashKey currently has only 139,000 asset-holding clients, leaving significant penetration space compared to Hong Kong's 4.789 million active stock users. Through the Omnibus model, HashKey integrates its API into partner broker apps, allowing traditional investors to achieve "seamless access" without repeating KYC and cross-platform funding, thus accelerating the opening of the local market in Hong Kong.

Trinitarian Ecological Closed Loop: HashKey is not only the leading compliant digital asset exchange in Hong Kong but has also strategically acquired "Yuanbi Technology," one of the institutions in the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's stablecoin sandbox, to connect the "compliant exchange + compliant stablecoin + traditional financial access" ecosystem. Additionally, the company is one of the few that can provide all-day (24/7) fully compliant deposit and withdrawal services, addressing key client pain points in settlement and liquidity.

High-Quality Transformation of Client Structure: HashKey has gradually shifted from a subsidy-driven retail model to a growth engine centered on institutional clients and Omnibus partners. In the first half of 2025, the trading volume of institutional and Omnibus clients grew against the trend, partially offsetting the contraction on the retail side, significantly improving revenue quality and sustainability.

Financial Optimization Entering Harvest Period: In 2024, HashKey's revenue is expected to leap to HKD 721 million, with transaction facilitation services becoming the core source of income, accounting for about 70%. Although it is in a strategic investment phase, the cost structure is continuously optimizing; the proportion of R&D, general and administrative expenses, and sales and marketing expenses relative to operating revenue has steadily decreased from 2022 to 2024, narrowing the company’s performance losses and beginning to show operational leverage effects.

Founders and Top Cornerstone Endorsements: The actual controller of HashKey, Mr. Lu Weiding, the employee stock ownership plan, and Dr. Xiao Feng collectively hold 75.19% of the shares, ensuring strategic stability through high equity concentration. In December 2025, the IPO will receive cornerstone investment from nine institutions including UBS Asset Management, Fidelity International, and Donghui Investment, reflecting a high level of international market recognition.

Earnings Forecast and Valuation: We expect HashKey’s revenue for 2025/2026/2027 to be HKD 700 million / HKD 1.15 billion / HKD 2.02 billion, corresponding to net profits of -HKD 950 million / -HKD 750 million / -HKD 150 million respectively.

As a leading licensed digital asset exchange based in Hong Kong, HashKey possesses a first-mover advantage in attracting compliant incremental capital in the future, thus we assign it a certain valuation premium of 12x PS.

We use the company's revenue in the steady-state operating year of 2027 as a valuation anchor, corresponding to a market value of HKD 24.24 billion. Discounted at a 12% rate to the 2026 valuation, this corresponds to a share price of HKD 7.83, with an initial covering rating of "Add."

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