Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.42 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59%, totaling $1.42 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $31.28 billion, with an increase of 1.17% in the last 7 days, of which USDT accounts for 58.81%.

CoinMarketCap shows that among the top 200 projects, most are up while a few are down. Specifically: BTC has increased by 5.96% over the past 7 days, ETH has increased by 2.83%, SOL has increased by 2.31%, RIVER has increased by 71.07%, and BARD has increased by 76.66%.

This week, net inflow into the US Bitcoin spot ETF was $568 million; net inflow into the US Ethereum spot ETF was $23.1 million.

Market forecast (March 9 - March 15):

BTC: $65,000-75,000 ($65,000 is a key psychological and chip support level; if it fails to hold, it may drop lower)

ETH: $1,900-2,180 (in extreme cases, it could test the previous low of $1,830)

SOL: $80-100 (the SOL spot ETF has achieved a net inflow of institutional funds for 23 consecutive days)

Currently, the RSI index is 44.46 (neutral zone), and the fear and greed index is 13 (extreme fear), while the altcoin season index is 45 (neutral, consistent with last week).

Unexpectedly poor employment data leads to soaring rate cut expectations: The US non-farm payroll number for February was far below expectations, marking the first negative growth since 2020. This report quickly increased market bets on the Federal Reserve cutting rates within the year. Theoretically, expectations of rate cuts are beneficial for risk assets, bringing a glimmer of liquidity improvement to the cryptocurrency market.

Stagflation panic strikes at the same time, creating a dilemma in the market: However, things are not that simple. Almost simultaneously, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East escalated, leading to a spike in international oil prices, with Brent crude reaching an all-time weekly increase. Job contraction and stubborn wages, along with soaring oil prices, have sparked deep concerns about stagflation in the market. In this environment, the Federal Reserve's policy faces a dilemma; risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) faced pressure due to concerns over the economic outlook after a brief respite. After the non-farm report was released, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices fell by more than 4%.

Overall, next week the market will enter a period of digestion of macro data. The biggest risk is the prolonged fermentation of stagflation panic, which suppresses all risk assets; the biggest opportunity is after market sentiment stabilizes, the repricing of liquidity improvements brought by rate cut expectations. SOL, due to its unique institutional fund inflows, may show certain relative strength.

Understanding Now

Review of Major Events of the Week

• Bitcoin rebounds strongly, breaking $73,000

This week, the cryptocurrency market witnessed a V-shaped reversal, with Bitcoin rebounding strongly from weekend lows and breaking above $73,000 on March 5, reaching a recent high. On March 4, Bitcoin even surged past $71,000, triggering over 120,000 liquidations across the network.

• Ethereum returns to $2,100, mainstream coins generally up

As a market barometer, Bitcoin's stabilization directly activated market liquidity. Ethereum (ETH) recorded nearly an 8% rebound this week, successfully returning above $2,100. Other mainstream coins such as BNB, XRP, and Solana also generally rose over 4%.

• Amid geopolitical turmoil, Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative faces challenges

The escalation of the situation in the Middle East last weekend led to a sharp drop in Bitcoin to $63,000. However, the market quickly recovered this week, even outperforming the concurrently declining gold, leading some traders to regard it as a safe-haven asset in times of geopolitical turmoil.

• Institutional funds flood in, with net inflow exceeding $680 million in two days

The power of Wall Street has become a core variable in this rebound. Data shows that from March 2 to 3 alone, the net fund inflow into the US spot Bitcoin ETF exceeded $680 million. Institutions' precise entry in the $65,000 to $67,000 range is considered a key support for the market rebound.

• Trump calls for advancing cryptocurrency legislation, CFTC chairman responds positively

On March 4, former US President Trump urged Congress to expedite the advancement of the cryptocurrency market structure bill. Subsequently, the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Mike Selig, responded that the CLARITY Act should be passed as soon as possible, also stating that US perpetual futures linked to cryptocurrencies are about to be launched. The positive signal from regulation boosted market sentiment.

• Macroeconomic data warms up, providing support for the crypto market

The latest ISM manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in the US has remained above 50 for two consecutive months, indicating that economic activity is in an expansion phase. Market analysts believe that macroeconomic improvement typically enhances investors' risk appetite, providing funding support for risk assets, including Bitcoin and altcoins.

• Public chain ecosystems collectively make strides: Polygon hard fork and Astar voting

This week has seen continuous progress in major public chain ecosystems. Polygon (MATIC) conducted the Lisovo hard fork upgrade on March 4. Astar Network (ASTR) initiated community voting on token economics 3.0 on March 3. Additionally, Flare Networks also held a presentation on XRP financial applications.

• Market focus shifts to altcoins, but overall rise still faces resistance

As Bitcoin stabilizes, discussions about the altcoin season have heated up again. Some analysts pointed out that the technical chart of altcoin market cap ratio shows signs of a breakout. However, on-chain data also indicates that about 38% of altcoin prices are still close to historical lows, suggesting weak interest in market funds, and an overall rise faces resistance from over-supply and insufficient liquidity.

• Coinbase expands business, opens stock trading to all US users

This week, cryptocurrency trading platform Coinbase announced it has opened stock trading features to all US users and has collaborated with Yahoo Finance, allowing users to switch to Coinbase for transactions directly after researching assets on Yahoo Finance. This marks Coinbase's further transformation into a comprehensive financial services platform.

Macroeconomics

• On March 4, US ADP employment numbers for February are 63,000, the largest increase since November 2025, exceeding the market expectation of 50,000. The previous value was 22,000.
• On March 5, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 28 was recorded at 213,000, a new high since the week ending February 7, lower than the market expectation of 215,000;
• On March 6, the US unemployment rate for February was at 4.4%, expected at 4.30%, previous value 4.30%;
• On March 6, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March is 3.3%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 96.7%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the rate until April is 86.4%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 13.3%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 0.4%.

ETF

According to statistics, from March 2 to March 6, the net inflow into the US Bitcoin spot ETF was $568 million; as of March 6, the total outflow from GBTC (Grayscale) was $25.863 billion, currently holding $10.652 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $52.904 billion. The total market capitalization of the US Bitcoin spot ETF is $90.366 billion.

The net inflow into the US Ethereum spot ETF was $23.1 million.

Foreseeing the Future

Industry Conferences

• EthCC 9 will be held in Cannes, France from March 30 to April 2, 2026. The Ethereum Community Conference (EthCC) is one of the largest and oldest annual Ethereum events in Europe, focusing on technology and community development;
• The Hong Kong Web3 Carnival 2026 will be held in Hong Kong, China from April 20 to 23, 2026;
• TOKEN2049 Dubai 2026 will be held in Dubai, UAE from April 29 to 30, 2026.

Important Events

• On March 11 at 20:30, the US will announce the unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for February;
• On March 12 at 20:30, the US will announce initial jobless claims for the week ending March 7 (in ten thousands);
• On March 13 at 20:30, the US will announce the January core PCE price index year-on-year rate;
• On March 8 at 15:00, North America will begin daylight saving time, with US stock trading starting an hour earlier;
• The UK's Financial Services Regulatory Authority has launched a stablecoin investigation, with the deadline for submitting written opinions being March 11, 2026.

Token Unlocking

• Movement (MOVE) will unlock 161 million tokens on March 9, valued at approximately $3.71 million, accounting for 5.18% of circulation;
• Linea (LINEA) will unlock 137 million tokens on March 10, valued at approximately $4.44 million, accounting for 5.62% of circulation;
• Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.31 million tokens on March 12, valued at approximately $11.28 million, accounting for 0.69% of circulation;
• Starknet (STRK) will unlock 127 million tokens on March 15, valued at approximately $5.08 million, accounting for 4.4% of circulation;
• Sei (SEI) will unlock 55.14 million tokens on March 15, valued at approximately $3.75 million, accounting for 1% of circulation.

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