Original link:https://x.com/evgenygaevoy/status/2024945812749340941?s=46
Author:wishful_cynic
Translation: Ken, Chaincatcher
This article has been on my mind repeatedly. My views have been oscillating: Is cypherpunk feasible? Is libertarianism feasible? Or more broadly, is cryptocurrency itself feasible? The following content is my latest reflection on the current philosophical situation of cryptocurrencies. I believe these thoughts may not be highly related to price movements, and I do not think my contemplative article has the power to sway the market. So, if you are reading this for "insider information," feel free to close the page. On the contrary, this is more like a manifesto, a discussion about “why we are here” (such articles have been quite rare recently). The “I” in the title implies that there might be a follow-up, possibly involving how I can hold these views while managing a highly centralized entity.
The Golden Path
For most of my life, "Dune" has been among my top three books. This may have changed in recent years (for example, the ranking of the "Civilization" series has risen), but it still holds a very precious place in my heart because it shaped my worldview in my twenties.
People often focus only on the first three books in the series, but for me, the fourth book, "God Emperor of Dune," is the one that truly impacted my thoughts. It influenced my views on progress, the benefits of diversity (not in terms of “political correctness”), and how “things should be.” I will certainly spoil a bit here, and I apologize for that. But before that (the series did indeed decline after that book), the core idea of the series is this: The only viable way for humanity to exist is through expansion and diversity. The “Golden Path” is a plan spanning thousands of years, aimed at imposing such extreme stability on humanity that when this stability disappears, humanity will profoundly hate it, leading to a cellular level hatred of any form of centralization. In other words, it is meant to:
“Teach humanity a poignant lesson: that so-called sheltered security, no matter how long it can be delayed, is equivalent to total death.”
The pursuit of stability, organizing things, and resisting chaos and entropy is in our nature. Building empires, whether state-based or enterprise-based, is also our nature. We know all empires decline, and all businesses will vanish, but we keep trying, each iteration attempting to build a greater, more powerful empire. However, the larger the empire we build, the more catastrophic its collapse can be. Worse yet, extreme empire-building can even push humanity to the brink of extinction, either due to being too centralized to withstand external events or by abandoning the existence of society in the internal “evolution” process. Thus, throughout history, we repeatedly cycle between chaos, self-organization, empire, and collapse. For me, the key insight of the “Golden Path” concept is: We must embrace diversity during the integration phase and reject empires, no matter how appealing the stability (and promised prosperity) they offer may be.
There exists a massive amount of “sheltered security” among existing nations. There is also a lot of “sheltered security” within the existing corporate/financial machinery. To me, both are slowly pushing us toward an inevitable collapse. To be clear—this is not a statement against capitalism and/or progress. On the contrary, capitalism is increasingly less present in this system, while the terrible and undignified regime-ism is growing. In summary, the “Leviathan” beasts we face in the future are as follows:
Anarcho-Capitalism: Corporations win, governments lose. Whether it is the world of Teyla Ashpool in "Neuromancer," the pizza company in "Snow Crash," or the world of Weyland-Yutani in "Alien," the prospects for anyone who is not a high-ranking cog in this machine are quite bleak.
Nationalism: Nation-states control everything and divide the world. Whether we will enter the world of "1984" or some more acceptable situation remains to be seen.
Fascism: An evil alliance between corporations and the government. It resembles the Galactic Empire period in "Star Wars"—rebellion is almost inevitable. As for which country might head down this path, I leave it to the reader to speculate.
So, what lies on the other side of all this? It does not offer sheltered security but urges us to make personal sovereignty and independence our primary goals. It seeks to transcend borders and completely disregard the closed financial systems. It views “insecurity” as a characteristic rather than a defect. I’m glad you asked the question; the word you are looking for is cryptocurrency.
The Long Road Ahead
I have been in the industry for almost nine years and have never seen the confusion as profound as now; I see no hope. On the surface, it seems like we have gotten most of what we wanted: “institutional adoption” and tangible technical applications. But it always feels like something is missing, not just in terms of price, but in its “soul,” in the question of “what are we really doing.” Meanwhile, the world is rapidly evolving, and the cooler realm of artificial intelligence has emerged. We are completely lost.
Of course, not everyone feels this way. Some see the rise of stablecoins as a victory. Some (who I believe are jumping the gun) are celebrating the (somewhat) decentralized perpetual contract exchanges overcoming the "dinosaurs" of traditional and centralized finance. Others are exploring how to build their own empires at the intersection of decentralized finance and traditional finance. We have witnessed the emergence of “enterprise chains,” with enterprise blockchain becoming great again. So yes, some people are excited, but I am not among them, even though Wintermute (the author’s company) will benefit greatly from this fusion.
I am not excited because I see several different paths ahead, of which only one is viable and worth pursuing:
Traditional finance swallows cryptocurrency: Stablecoins are widely adopted. Enterprise chains implement KYC certifications. Decentralized exchanges enforce KYC requirements. The financial machinery operates more efficiently, with reduced intermediaries. Bitcoin is digital gold, much of which belongs to sovereign governments, corporate treasuries, and ETFs. Or, worldwide adoption of central bank digital currencies leads to comprehensive control over our (financial) privacy.This technology operates beautifully, but it is evident that we are likely to lose.
The government surrenders to blockchain: Everything operates on an unpermissioned ledger, completely disregarding KYC/AML mechanisms. Cryptocurrencies are taxed only when exchanged for fiat. Token valuations soar into the tens of trillions. This is a free and wonderful world. But it is also a very illusory world. We win, but the probability is extremely low.
Uneasy coexistence: We establish something parallel to the existing system, completely independent of it. You can personally exist in both, while the government cannot touch it, as it is designed to be isolated. We win, and we win thoroughly. And this entirely depends on us.
I hope the feeling I convey is: I do not find Option One attractive; it merely makes the existing machine (which of the three beasts ultimately wins) more efficient.
I know some believe in the possibility of the second scenario, but that is purely wishful thinking. Governments will not give up their sovereignty, just as corporations will not relinquish their monopoly positions easily. Casinos cannot operate smoothly on the Solana platform. The CFTC will also not easily forfeit the unregulated status of Hyperliquid without KYC (even if the current regulators give up, the next ones won’t). Moreover, I must remind you that any centralized stablecoin issuer can freeze your tokens at the behest of court orders. The only possible scenario for this to happen is massive socio-economic collapse, and as a father of three children (and an employer of over a hundred employees), I do not wish to see such a situation occur.
This raises the third scenario. You can call it the metaverse, network state, decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), or cultural tribes. What they have in common is that they exist independently and often clash with the political and financial systems of the “real world.”
Entering the Matrix
Our problem is that most people have never “etched in their bones” this lesson. Particularly for those of us in the West, who have gradually become accustomed to progress, enjoying ever-increasing convenience, we have never truly experienced the downsides of losing sovereignty. Ironically, we have only most profoundly felt this downside from 2022 to 2024: on the one hand, we have suffered the regulatory shocks of the SEC and CFTC; on the other hand, we have almost watched with our own eyes as a centralized entity (FTX/Alameda + VC groups) seized most of the cryptocurrency. However, we learned completely the wrong lesson. We didn’t double down on fighting for freedom; instead, we thought we could win by simply placing the right people in the right positions.
Meanwhile, we’ve spent several years complaining about the user experience of cryptocurrencies, lamenting Bitcoin’s inadequacy as a medium of exchange (which it is), grumbling about incessant hacking incidents, and so on. What if we were all wrong? What if this inconvenience is precisely the culture we need to actively embrace, the price of enjoying sovereignty? I am not saying we should idolize MetaMask as the epitome of innovation. I am not suggesting we should all engrave our mnemonic phrases onto metal cylinders. What I mean is that we should strive to improve user experience not for the 50% of the world that does not need it, but for that 50% of true sovereign individuals who genuinely need it—whether they are in developing countries facing the erasure of democracy and total control by governments, or in developed countries that are increasingly resembling China and Russia, with extremely foolish anti-privacy laws (I mean you, Europe and the UK).
Our goal should not be to combat “regulations” or “governments.” Our goal should be to create something that cannot be controlled at all. The key is to not rely on those bottlenecks: fiat on/off ramps, app stores, domain name system hosting, centralized sorters, social media platforms, and of course, centralized stablecoins (the kind that can be frozen). Anything we build should not be easily switched off by court orders or corporate bureaucrats at the press of a button. Tax authorities shouldn’t crave our stupid tokens that don’t comply with MICA regulations (unless we cash them out). The ultimate goal is simple—we should create a system in which ordinary people can exist without needing anyone's permission.
This specifically means:
Embrace permissionless, sovereign protocols, reject black box off-chain solutions.
Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs) are the right direction, I am actually referring to the failed DAOs—those without centralized entities exerting actual control through fake governance theatrics. We never actually built a true community; instead, we focused on how to incentivize posting junk comments. We need to keep pushing forward.
Learn to either not rely on centralized technology stacks or to dynamically switch protocol stacks when certain external points fail. This applies to infrastructure (clouds, LLMs), social coordination, and certainly also to stablecoins (which will be detailed next).
Make algorithmic stablecoins great again. Our mistake was being too infatuated with Ponzi schemes. DAI and UST themselves are not wrong; rather, the mistake was adding USDC to DAI, and the unsustainable yields added to UST. DAI cannot reach Tether’s scale relying solely on ETH support, which is entirely reasonable—we need to build a parallel economic system first, and we have never actually tried that. Ideally—we should be able to trade genuinely in cryptocurrency among ourselves, although I believe it will take some time to achieve.
Enabling privacy protection is essential. It doesn’t matter what tools are used as long as it is achievable.
The Great Dispersion
"God Emperor of Dune" ends with the "Great Dispersion"—humanity escapes into the void after the fall of the God Emperor. We should have gone through a similar dispersion after 2022, after learning our lessons, but it is not too late yet.
We do not (always) get to choose the world we inhabit today. Some are trapped in countries with almost no way out, while others are imprisoned by self-imposed obligations. My slightly pessimistic prediction is that in the coming years, we will have more and more reasons to escape. The “Leviathan” beast will continue to grow, conquering and oppressing us. Even if there exists a “better” parallel crypto world, we (currently) cannot fully immerse ourselves in it. But at least we can (re)start to build a refuge for others to escape to, while allowing the real world and the crypto world to coexist.
The only thing worth building is a way out. Even if cryptocurrencies become unpopular (which is almost inevitable), this system can withstand external scrutiny. But more importantly, it will give meaning to what we do and everything we build.
Most of us will choose to coexist with this beast. Responsibility, comfort, money, or just another kind of meaning will drive us, and there is nothing wrong with that. Those who remain will build exits and perhaps even recover everything we have lost.
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