What to know : Bitcoin is trading in a tight range below $90,000, with analysts saying order-book dynamics rather than macro forces are driving its stalled price action. Liquidity data suggest a single large player may be using "liquidity herding" to pin the price near recent lows, concentrating bid support between $85,000 and $87,500. Traders are watching whether that support zone holds into the monthly close, as a break and January close below about $87,500 could trigger a sharper downside move into what some call "Bearadise."
Bitcoin’s price action looked strangely lethargic early last month even as traditional assets such as precious metals and equities pushed to fresh highs.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency repeatedly failed to clear the $90,000 level — a stall that, in hindsight, foreshadowed the recent sharp sell-off to $75,000.
At the time, traders blamed everything from a flight to safer assets and fading crypto demand to churns in spot ETF flows and month-end positioning. But some analysts say the real story was visible well before prices broke down — sitting in plain sight in exchange order books.
According to Keith Alan, co-founder of trading analytics firm Material Indicators, order-book data showed persistent sell-side pressure below $90,000 that consistently smothered upside momentum, even when broader market conditions appeared supportive.
In posts on X, Alan said Material Indicators’ FireCharts tool showed repeated waves of visible sell liquidity appearing just above spot prices, effectively pinning bitcoin near the lower end of its range.
He described the behavior as a form of “liquidity herding,” where large orders shape market behavior by nudging price toward levels that benefit the dominant participant.
Think of it like a crowded auction where one very large player controls the room. By placing sizeable sell orders where everyone can see them, buying appears risky. As buyers hesitate, price drifts sideways or lower, allowing that player to quietly accumulate at more favorable levels.
This tactic doesn’t rely on news or fundamentals. It uses the order book itself to influence behavior — and it often shows up around options expiry, when keeping price within a specific range can reduce losses or improve payouts for large traders.
At the same time, order-book data showed a dense cluster of bids building between roughly $85,000 and $87,500. That zone repeatedly absorbed sell pressure and acted as a near-term floor during bitcoin’s consolidation phase.
“If that support held, it was seen as a potential base for another attempt higher,” Alan said at the time. “But once it breaks, things can unwind quickly.”
That warning proved prescient. When bitcoin finally slipped below the lower end of that bid cluster, selling accelerated rapidly as thin liquidity amplified each move. The breakdown marked a decisive failure of the range that had contained prices for weeks.
Bitcoin tested lows near $74,000–$76,000 over the weekend, highlighting a fragile battle between dip buyers and forced sellers in a thin market.
BTC in "bearadise"
Meanwhile, Alan had previously warned that a monthly close below roughly $87,500 — the opening level for 2026 — would represent a clear technical failure. He referred to such a scenario as a move into “Bearadise,” shorthand for a phase where downside momentum feeds on itself as confidence erodes.
Large players influencing short-term price action through liquidity placement is not new in crypto markets.
Whales and high-frequency traders have long used visible order-book depth to shape expectations, often trapping smaller traders on the wrong side of the move.
In hindsight, however, the same order-book dynamics that kept bitcoin pinned below $90,000 also left it vulnerable once support gave way.
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