The 2026 investment script of four major billionaire tech tycoons: bullish on copper mines, bearish on oil, new crypto assets will replace gold and BTC.

Translation: Yuliya, PANews

The "All-In Podcast" is one of the world's most popular technology and business podcasts, co-hosted by four top venture capitalists and friends. The four hosts are: Jason Calacanis (early investor in Uber and Robinhood, podcast host, responsible for moderation), Chamath Palihapitiya (billionaire, founder of Social Capital, known as the "King of SPACs," with sharp insights), David Friedberg (founder of The Production Board, with a strong scientific background, known as the "Sultan of Science"), and David Sacks (the first "AI and cryptocurrency czar" in the U.S., close friend of Musk, co-founder of Craft Ventures, former PayPal executive, recently deeply involved in U.S. political activities). In this episode, the four discuss deep predictions about political, business, and technological trends for 2026, covering topics such as California's wealth tax, Trump economics, the impact of AI on employment, geopolitics, and specific investment advice.

Here are the detailed contents of the conversation, translated by PANews:

Prologue: Escaping California and the Wealth Tax Crisis

Jason Calacanis (hereinafter Jason): Welcome back to the world's number one podcast. David Sacks, everyone is curious, how have you adapted since moving to Texas?

David Sacks (hereinafter Sacks): I love the 70-degree Fahrenheit (about 21 degrees Celsius) weather here. I completed my move in December, bought a new house, went to the DMV, and signed a lease for the Austin office for Craft Ventures. Everything is settled.

Jason: Chamath, what about you guys?

Chamath Palihapitiya (hereinafter Chamath): We are coming to scout, but we haven't made a final decision yet.

Sacks: The funniest part is, while we were discussing California's wealth tax in the group, Chamath was there acting like, "I'm going to stay and fight, I'm not leaving my home." Then I got a call from my broker saying she was helping Chamath find a house.

Jason: Wow! Is Chamath making "backdoor deals"?

Chamath: I'm just hedging my bets! If you look at our friends who have clearly left, their total net worth is about $500 billion. This is very detrimental to California's long-term budget. If you add in those who are still on the fence but may be forced to leave, about half of the taxable wealth estimated in California's budget could disappear.

Sacks: I predict this (California's wealth tax) will be the topic of the year. They are collecting signatures, and they need about 850,000 signatures to get this proposal on the ballot. If it is confirmed to be on the ballot in April, it will cause huge panic, and many people will leave because they can't afford the risk. Even if it doesn't pass in 2026, everyone expects some version to come back in 2028. That's why I decided to leave.

Chamath: If you are an entrepreneur with good ideas, it's hard to start a business here. Because once you succeed, holding a lot of illiquid stock and having to pay 5% of the valuation of that stock as tax can bankrupt your own company.

Sacks: And what if your company goes to zero the next year? You still owe the tax bill. Also, one reason Larry Page and Sergey Brin (founders of Google) left might be the super voting rights clause in the proposal. This clause states that if you have super voting rights, the tax authority will calculate the value of all your shares based on the multiple of your super voting rights. For example, if they have 52% voting rights in Google, which has a market value of $4 trillion, their net worth might be seen as $1 trillion each, rather than the actual $200 billion. For them, the 5% tax effectively becomes 25% or even 50%.

Jason: Lightning prediction, will this "asset seizure tax" pass?

David Friedberg (hereinafter Friedberg): I don't think it will make it to the ballot.

Chamath: I don't think it will pass, but it will be on the ballot.

Sacks: Previously, the probability of it making it to the ballot on Polymarket was only 45%, but after Ro Khanna and Bernie Sanders got involved, it skyrocketed to 80%. It won't make it to the ballot in two scenarios: one is if the union (SEIU) doesn't have the money to collect signatures, and the other is if Gavin Newsom (California Governor) can negotiate to have them withdraw.

Chamath: But if it makes it to the ballot, the probability of it passing is 40%.**

The Biggest Business Winners of 2026

Jason: Next, let's talk about business winners. Last year's predictions, Friedberg chose robotics and autonomous driving hardware, Chamath chose stablecoins, Gavin chose large companies that effectively use AI, and I chose Tesla and Google. We can say we all predicted quite accurately. Friedberg, who do you choose this year?

Friedberg: I have two choices.

The first is Huawei. I believe Huawei is deeply involved in the chip sector in collaboration with SMIC, and they are going all out; this year's performance will exceed Western expectations.
The second is Polymarket, which has evolved from a quirky niche market into a platform that provides insights into current events. I expect it to explode this year. After seeing its collaboration with the New York Stock Exchange, I anticipate that all exchanges, including Robinhood, Coinbase, and even Nasdaq, will take action this year. Prediction markets will not only become markets but also become news.

Chamath: I choose copper. In a world increasingly leaning towards unilateralism and emphasizing national economic resilience, we are still severely underestimating the gap between global demand and supply for a few key elements. In this context, the asset most likely to "skyrocket" is copper. It is currently the most useful, cheapest, most malleable, and conductive material, found everywhere from data centers to chips to weapon systems. At the current rate, by 2040, there will be about a 70% shortfall in global copper supply.

Sacks: I believe 2026 will be a big year for IPOs.** There will be a large number of companies successfully going public, creating trillions of dollars in new market value. Recently, there has been concern about the shrinking number of public companies, with many being privatized. 2026 will be a significant reversal of this trend, which is also part of the "Trump prosperity."

Jason: I got it right with Google last year, and this year my choice is Amazon. I believe they will become the first "corporate singularity," where profits contributed by robots will exceed those contributed by humans. Their autonomous driving company Zoox is making good progress, and they are massively replacing human employees with robots. In Austin, we can now get same-day delivery for anything ordered on Amazon, supported by a huge automated warehouse and logistics network.

Sacks: I think Jason's judgment on Amazon will ultimately be correct, but for reasons completely unrelated to what he stated.

The Biggest Business Losers of 2026

Jason: After discussing the winners, let's look at the losers. Last year's predictions, we all had a consensus; Friedberg, Chamath, and Gavin pointed to enterprise SaaS (Software as a Service), while I chose traditional car companies and real estate. It turned out that enterprise SaaS indeed performed poorly in 2025, with stocks of companies like ServiceNow, Workday, and DocuSign declining. Friedberg, what is your prediction for business losers this year?

Friedberg: I believe state governments will face huge financing difficulties.** As more waste, fraud, and abuse in state government agencies are exposed, people will begin to question their long-term solvency. More seriously, the huge unfunded pension liabilities of various states will be revealed this year, making people realize there is a massive black hole in state government finances.

Chamath: I choose the software industrial complex, which refers to those companies selling licensed SaaS to American businesses.** This is an economy worth $3 to $4 trillion annually, but 90% of the revenue comes from "maintenance" and "migration." With the advancement of AI models and technologies, I believe the economic opportunities in these two areas will shrink dramatically. Companies still need software, but incremental revenue will significantly decrease, which will severely impact public SaaS companies.

Sacks: I still choose California. Because of the shadow of the wealth tax and the harsh regulatory environment, business and capital are being driven out of the state. I sincerely hope you are right, and this bill ultimately does not make it to the ballot. If it really does, there will be a panic exodus.

Jason: My choice is young white-collar workers in the U.S. I believe they are finding it increasingly difficult to find entry-level jobs because companies find it easier to automate with AI than to train recent graduates. I see many companies replacing some of the repetitive tasks typically done by fresh graduates with AI. This doesn't mean young people have no opportunities; rather, they need to become more resilient, self-sufficient, and learn to use AI tools.

Friedberg: I have a different view on this. I’ve heard from some CEO friends that it’s currently difficult to hire recent graduates, not because of AI, but because of cultural issues. Many Gen Z graduates seem to lack motivation, organizational skills, and executive function. This could be a phenomenon specific to the COVID-19 pandemic period, or it could be a deeper cultural shift. So I believe the difficulty young people face in finding jobs is a result of both cultural factors and AI automation.

Jason: I think both are true. Perhaps these young people are either spoiled or their parents have enough money to let them coast. But I also see many companies telling me that they can replace a third of the bottom tasks, which are typically done by fresh graduates.

The Most Significant Deal of 2026

Jason: Next, let's predict the most significant deal of 2026. Sacks, what are your thoughts?

Sacks: I don't want to name specific companies, but I believe there will be significant breakthroughs in the coding assistants and tool use space. Just like the chatbot boom at the end of 2022, the heat in this area is rising sharply, and I think it will become increasingly important this year.

Friedberg: I believe the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be resolved this year. There are many economic and political factors driving this process, which will bring more stability to the region.

Chamath: I think it's not about a specific deal, but rather a transformation in the way deals are done: IP licensing deals will replace traditional mergers and acquisitions (M&A). Due to increasingly strict antitrust reviews, large mergers have become extremely difficult. Therefore, companies will turn to large-scale IP licensing agreements to acquire technology and talent. Collaborations like Google with Character.AI, Microsoft with OpenAI, and Nvidia with Grok are all examples of this model. I believe this type of deal will become more common and mature by 2026.

Jason: I think we will see a massive acquisition exceeding $50 billion. It could be one of Apple, Meta, Microsoft, or Amazon acquiring AI newcomers like XAI, Mistral, Perplexity, or Anthropic. I know most of these AI companies want to go public independently, but I believe an irresistible offer will eventually emerge. President Trump may instruct the government to "make mergers great again," which is crucial for maintaining U.S. global competitiveness.

The Boldest Contrarian Predictions for 2026

Jason: Next is everyone's favorite part: the boldest contrarian predictions. Last year, I said OpenAI would lose its leading position, and that indeed happened; Chamath predicted a crisis among major banks; Gavin predicted GDP would grow by over 5% annually; and Friedberg predicted socialism would make a comeback. We can say everyone's predictions were quite forward-looking. Friedberg, what is your contrarian prediction this year?

Friedberg: My prediction is based on one premise: there will be a revolution in Iran, and the Ayatollah regime will fall. But that's not my contrarian view; I believe this will happen. My contrarian view is: the fall of Iran will not bring stability to the Middle East but will instead trigger more conflicts. Many people think Iran is a destabilizing force in the region, but I believe it actually plays a certain "stabilizing" role. Once this regime disappears, other Arab countries (like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.) will erupt into new conflicts over power and influence, especially after the emergence of the Palestinian "two-state solution." The situation in the Middle East will be worse than anyone expects.

Sacks: My contrarian prediction is: AI will increase rather than decrease the demand for knowledge workers. I want to quote "Jevons' paradox": when the cost of a resource decreases, the total demand for it actually increases because people find more use cases. For example, the reduced cost of generating code will lead to society creating a massive amount of software; the reduced cost of radiology scans will make scanning more widespread, thus requiring more radiologists to interpret and validate AI results. The so-called "unemployment narrative" is not only incorrect; we will actually see job growth.

Chamath: I have two contrarian predictions.

First: SpaceX will not go public but will reverse merge with Tesla. I believe Elon Musk will take this opportunity to consolidate his two most important assets into one equity structure to solidify his control.
Second: Central banks will realize the limitations of gold and Bitcoin and will seek a brand new, controllable crypto paradigm. To maintain national sovereignty, they need a tradable, secure, and completely private asset that is not easily scrutinized by other countries (whether friends or foes). Moreover, from a technical standpoint, it must be able to withstand the challenges that quantum computing may pose to existing cryptographic systems in the next 5 to 10 years.

Jason: My contrarian prediction is: the confrontation between the U.S. and China will largely be resolved. I believe this could become a hallmark achievement of President Trump's second term. Both sides will reach a win-win working relationship rather than a zero-sum game where one side loses.

The Best Performing Assets of 2026

Jason: Last year, Gavin predicted that high-bandwidth memory manufacturers (like Micron) would see their stock prices soar by 230%, and Friedberg predicted that Chinese tech stocks would also perform well. This year, what assets do you think will perform the best?

Friedberg: I choose Polymarket again. Its network effects are becoming evident, and it is replacing the functions of traditional media and markets, with huge potential.

Chamath: I choose a basket of critical metals. This aligns with the logic I mentioned earlier about copper; in the context of geopolitical tensions and supply chain reshaping, the demand for these basic materials will be rigid.

Sacks: I choose the expansion supercycle in the tech sector. This is still part of my "Trump Boom" theory. And just as we are recording this episode, the Atlanta Fed has just raised its GDP growth forecast for the fourth quarter to an astonishing 5.4%.

Chamath: People are not aware of a few things.

First, due to immigration issues, non-farm payroll data has been reset, and income growth for low-income groups is very rapid.
Second, the productivity gains brought by AI.
Third, the tax cuts that will take effect in 2026.

All these factors combined create a huge growth momentum. Do not short the U.S. economy; it is ready to take off. A 6% GDP growth is not unrealistic.

Jason: In this environment where the economy is about to take off, interest rates may be lowered, and people have disposable income, my choice is the speculation and gambling sector, including platforms like Robinhood, Polymarket, PrizePicks, and Coinbase. People will have more disposable income to place bets and speculate.

The Worst Performing Assets of 2026

Jason: Last year, our predictions for the worst performing assets were remarkably consistent, almost all pointing to enterprise SaaS and traditional automotive/real estate, and the facts proved our judgments correct. Sacks, which asset do you predict will perform the worst this year?

Sacks: I believe it will be high-end luxury homes in California. Due to the ongoing impact of rumors about the wealth tax, this market will face tremendous pressure.** I even hope that if the wealth tax proposal ultimately fails, there will be a "dead cat bounce" so I can offload my properties.

Chamath: I think it will be hydrocarbons, specifically oil. I believe the trend of falling oil prices is irreversible.** Regardless of your views on climate change, the trends of electrification and energy storage are unstoppable. This will continually narrow the effective use cases for oil. I think oil prices are more likely to fall to $45 per barrel rather than return to $65.

Friedberg: I believe Netflix will be the worst performing asset (assuming they do not complete the acquisition of Warner Bros.), or more broadly, the worst performing will be traditional media stocks. Netflix's content library is facing challenges from all sides, and the conditions they are currently offering to content creators (cost plus 10%) are very harsh, leading many excellent creators to no longer want to collaborate with them. If they do not expand their content library through acquisitions, they will face a huge dilemma. Traditional media is being challenged by independent creators and citizen journalism.

Jason: I choose the dollar.** Our national debt continues to grow, and it is expected to increase by another $2 trillion this year. If President Trump really increases the military budget by 50%, that will directly count against our debt. All of this will pose challenges to the value of the dollar, which is also one of the reasons we see people turning to gold, silver, and even copper.

The Most Anticipated Trends of 2026

Jason: Last year, the trends we anticipated included the return of M&A and IPOs, the rapid development of AI, and the construction of nuclear energy. This year, what trends are you most looking forward to?

Friedberg: I believe Iran becoming an independent democratic country will be the most anticipated trend this year.** The people there, especially the youth, are yearning for freedom, and the economic crisis is driving this change. This could be the most significant event reshaping the Middle East.

Sacks: The trend I am most looking forward to is the auditing of government spending at all levels. We need to normalize the "decentralized DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency)" so that the public can see where the money is being spent.

Chamath: What I look forward to is the expansion of "Trumpism."** Regardless of your political stance, as an economic participant—whether running a business, investing in the stock market, or participating in cryptocurrency speculation—understanding the changes in the global economic landscape is crucial. Unilateralism and economic resilience are huge trends, and the result will be significant GDP growth.

Jason: I still stand by last year's prediction and extend it into 2026: the return of the IPO market's kings. I believe that at least two giants among SpaceX, Anduril, Stripe, Anthropic, or OpenAI will file for IPO this year. This will ignite the market and be an exciting moment for Silicon Valley, for the employees of these companies, and for the pension funds and endowments holding their shares.

The Biggest Political Winners of 2026

Jason: Alright, let's move into the formal prediction segment. First, who will be the biggest political winner of 2026? Looking back at last year's predictions, Friedberg said it would be young candidates, Gavin (guest host) said it would be Trump and centrism, Chamath said it would be fiscal conservatives, and I said it would be representatives of Generation X and Millennials. Friedberg, who is your choice this year?

Friedberg: The Democratic Socialists of America (DSA).** Just as the MAGA movement took over the Republican Party, I believe the DSA is taking over the Democratic Party, and this trend will be solidified in 2026.

Chamath: Anyone committed to combating waste, fraud, and abuse at the federal, state, and local levels.** This is an open lane, and I believe this political strategy will be very effective in 2026.

Sacks: I believe the "Trump Boom" will be the biggest political winner. The good news for the economy is already starting to show: inflation has dropped to 2.7%, core CPI is at 2.6%, third-quarter GDP growth is at 4.3%, and the trade deficit is at its lowest since 2009, with a significant drop in layoffs. The S&P 500 continues to hit new highs, oil prices are falling, mortgage costs have decreased by $3,000, and real wages have risen by over $1,000. I predict that by June, we will see a 75 to 100 basis point rate cut, and thanks to larger standard deductions and tax exemptions for tips and overtime, there will be massive refunds in April. All of this will have a huge impact on the political landscape for next year.

Jason: What do you predict GDP will be?

Sacks: I choose 5%.

Chamath: I believe the lower limit is 5%, and the upper limit is 6.2%. You have to understand that if we can reach 6%, the only quasi-competitor in the modern world that can achieve this is China, and that is during a time when it has complete coordination and dominance over federal, state, and local economies. Achieving this under democracy and capitalism would be remarkable.

Friedberg: I predict it will be 4.6%.

Jason: My prediction wavers between JD Vance and the "Mamdani Moment" (referring to young socialists like New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani), but I ultimately choose the "Mamdani Moment." He is only 34 years old, and the Democratic Party seems to believe that moving towards full socialism is the easiest way to win in 2026. I think Trump has created space for this route by neglecting the needs of the American working class. He now resembles a neoconservative, having bombed seven countries this year and threatened to occupy Colombia and Greenland, which has disappointed many.

The Biggest Political Losers of 2026

Jason: Having discussed the winners, let's talk about the losers. Last year, both Gavin and I predicted it would be Putin, Chamath predicted it would be progressives, and Friedberg predicted it would be neoconservatives who support war. Sacks, who do you think will be the biggest political loser in 2026?

Sacks: I believe it will be Democratic Centrism. This is actually the other side of your belief that socialists will win. There are two reasons:

First, socialist ideology is gaining ground among the Democratic base voters, especially the young;
Second, due to districting, the vast majority of congressional districts no longer have real competition, and the only real threat to incumbent Democratic lawmakers comes from challengers on their left, forcing even moderates to shift leftward.

Chamath: The biggest loser in 2026 will be the Monroe Doctrine. I believe historians will rewrite it when they look back at President Trump's term. I think there is a clear "Trumpism" that has surpassed the Monroe Doctrine. How do we view war? How do we view our sphere of influence? How do we view economic multilateralism versus unilateralism? All of these are outdated. Trump's perspective is hemispheric dominance, taking proactive intervention in very specific circumstances, such as combating drug cartels, controlling immigration, and securing critical assets. We have more transactional relationships, which allows us to respond at any time.

Friedberg: I believe the biggest political loser in 2026 will be the tech industry. Artificial intelligence and tech wealth have become targets for populism on both the left and right. The right is fracturing internally, with the alliance between tech and MAGA facing strong populist challenges; meanwhile, the left is becoming more hardline due to the alliance between tech and the right. I think the midterm elections in 2026 will be a nationwide referendum against the tech industry.

Chamath: Friedberg is absolutely right. I just met with three senior Republican senators yesterday, and they feel very disappointed and distrustful of some tech companies and their leaders.

Sacks: I believe the natural ally of the tech industry is MAGA, because we still believe in property rights and innovation. If the Democrats truly move towards socialism, they will want to reshape your relationship with property rights. The populist right is angry because they remember censorship, de-platforming, and shadow bans. Tech companies need to hold some "truth and reconciliation" meetings with conservatives. Many companies initially did this under pressure from the Biden administration, and they made the mistake of only donating to leftist causes.

Jason: I agree with Sacks that the biggest political loser in 2026 will be Democratic Centrism.

Sacks: Jason, you mentioned twice that Trump is a neoconservative, and I must respond. The characteristics of neoconservatism are: large-scale invasions, long-term occupations, and nation-building. But did Trump do these things? No. Take Venezuela as an example; the entire operation lasted only three hours, with no Americans killed, which is quite remarkable. We did not overthrow the entire regime but cooperated with the existing regime. This is a whole new paradigm, not neoconservatism.

Jason: I admit that Trump's military actions have indeed been very precise and efficient, and our military has performed excellently. But things can always go wrong. If the operation fails and we capture hostages, today's discussion would be completely different. We must remain cautious.

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