Bitcoin’s mathematically capped supply makes it a superior scarce asset to gold in an era of rising institutional demand, according to Ark Invest founder and CEO Cathie Wood.
In her “2026 Outlook” report, Wood analyzes the recent divergence between the two assets.
Gold vs. Bitcoin
While gold surged 65% in 2025, Bitcoin declined 6%. Wood attributes gold’s 166% rally since October 2022 not to inflation fears, but to “global wealth creation” outpacing the metal’s modest ~1.8% annual supply growth.
“The incremental demand for gold could be outstripping its supply growth,” she wrote. Bitcoin, however, presents a fundamentally different supply dynamic.
“Gold miners, by boosting production of gold, can do something not possible with Bitcoin,” Wood notes. “Bitcoin is mathematically metered to increase ~0.82% per year for the next two years, at which point its growth will decelerate to ~0.41% per year.”
This inelastic supply schedule means that any surge in demand—such as continued inflows into spot ETFs—would have a more potent effect on Bitcoin’s price. “If Bitcoin demand continues to increase, the bellwether crypto could benefit more than gold due to its mathematical nature,” the report suggests.
Bitwise CIO Matthew Hougan recently echoed this scarcity thesis, suggesting sustained institutional demand that outpaces supply could ignite a “parabolic blowoff” for Bitcoin.
“Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 looks weak in isolation, but context matters,” Georgii Verbitskii, Founder of TYMIO, told Decrypt. “In 2024, Bitcoin rose sharply... a period of consolidation the following year is not only normal but justified.”
Verbitskii agreed with Wood’s core structural argument, noting that “when capital rotates into hard assets during a global currency revaluation, Bitcoin belongs in that same category as gold.”
However, he highlighted a critical divergence, that gold miners can increase production when prices rise, but Bitcoin’s supply is fixed. “That asymmetry means that when demand returns, Bitcoin’s price reaction is structurally more explosive,” Verbitskii said.
Looking ahead
Wood’s analysis also places gold’s current rally in a sobering historical context.
The ratio of gold’s market capitalization to the M2 money supply has reached a level last seen in the early 1930s and 1980s—periods she describes as “extreme.” Historically, sustained declines from such peaks have coincided with strong equity market returns.
For allocators, Wood highlights a final, critical advantage: diversification.
The correlation between Bitcoin and gold is lower than that between the S&P 500 and bonds, she noted, concluding that Bitcoin “should be a good source of diversification for asset allocators looking for higher returns per unit of risk during the years ahead.”
“Looking into 2026, I don’t see this as a buy-or-sell question, but rather a hold question,” Verbitskii said. “Gold offers stability, Bitcoin offers asymmetric upside. Historically, Bitcoin has grown faster than gold, and I expect that pattern to continue.”
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