Bitcoin's exchange-traded funds could be following the exact structural playbook that preceded gold's historic 2025 surge, a parallel that suggests a potential parabolic move awaits the top cryptocurrency.
The analogy was highlighted by Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matthew Hougan on a podcast with influencer Michael 'Threadguy' Jerome.
"That’s the same thing that’s happening in Bitcoin," Hougan said, pointing to the transformation in gold after central banks began "panic buying" following the 2022 Ukraine war sanctions.
Central bank demand for gold jumped from 400 tons to over 1,000 tons annually starting in 2022. That relentless buying absorbed supply for years before igniting a price explosion: gold closed 2022 down, rallied 13% in 2023, 27% in 2024, and then surged nearly 65% in 2025.
“Eventually, what gold tells you is that sellers run out of ammo. And that’s when the price goes parabolic,” the analyst said.
He sees the same pattern in Bitcoin ETFs, which have consistently bought more than 100% of the new supply since launch. “So I do think gold has shown what’s going to happen... we’re going to get to that parabolic blowoff move if that buy-side demand continues.”
This “gold-first, Bitcoin-follows” pattern has been observed before, as highlighted in a previous Decrypt report, where Lawrence Lepard, co-founder of Equity Management Associates, noted “Gold often moves first, and then Bitcoin follows and outperforms."
Furthermore, following gold's major rallies, "a swift rebound shouldn't be the base case," Ryan McMillin, chief investment officer at Merkle Tree Capital, previously told Decrypt, suggesting any follow-on move may require patience.
Distinctions remain
Other analysts agree with the high-level premise—that sustained buying absorbs selling pressure—but caution that Bitcoin’s path will have its own distinct volatility and drivers.
Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group, partially agreed with McMillin’s views. "At a high level, the fact that sustained structural buying absorbs market selling pressure is indeed a core characteristic of any supply-scarce asset entering a long-term bull market," he told Decrypt.
However, Sun highlighted critical distinctions in market structure.
For gold, buyers are typically central banks and sovereign wealth funds seeking a "hedge against fiat currency credibility," resulting in low-leverage, long-term capital. Bitcoin ETF buyers, while institutional, still treat it as a risk asset, leading to "far higher" embedded leverage and trading activity.
"Because of these differences in capital dynamics, Bitcoin’s volatility is naturally higher than gold’s," Sun explained. "Therefore, even if both assets experience long-term bull markets, their price trajectories need not look the same."
A key differentiator is sensitivity to macro conditions.
Gold's recent bull run was fueled by dollar credibility concerns and geopolitics. Bitcoin, Sun noted, "remains highly sensitive to macro liquidity conditions," meaning a shift toward tighter Federal Reserve policy could impose volatility that disrupts a smooth parabolic ascent.
The debate underscores a pivotal question for 2026: whether Bitcoin's ETF-driven demand will follow gold's historic, scarcity-driven blueprint to a price climax, or if its unique profile as a high-volatility, macro-sensitive asset will forge a distinctly different—and likely bumpier—path to new highs.
Bitcoin is up 1.8% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data, while gold is down 0.32% in the same period.
Users on prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, continue to remain bullish on gold even after its parabolic rally, assigning a 78% chance that the precious metal hits $5,000 before Ethereum.
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