Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Under the influence of the Christmas holiday, liquidity in major global financial markets has significantly contracted, with US stocks, US bonds, and various futures contracts closed, and stock markets in several European countries also closed. However, the pricing of key assets has not stalled. In terms of exchange rates, the Renminbi has accelerated its appreciation since August, breaking the 7.0 mark for the first time in over a year on December 25. Industrial Securities pointed out that this round of appreciation is not solely driven by the weakening of the US dollar, but reflects the internal momentum of capital inflow and increased demand for currency conversion. Under the combined effects of "dollar easing push" and "capital inflow pull," the Renminbi's appreciation may still be at its starting point and is expected to boost risk appetite in the equity market. Additionally, the precious metals market continues to be strong, with silver first breaking $75 per ounce, rising for the fifth consecutive trading day, with an annual increase of nearly 161%. Gold also briefly surpassed $4,530 per ounce, setting a new historical high. Looking ahead, market predictions are generally optimistic: Wyckoff expects gold to reach a target price of $4,600 by the end of the year; renowned economist Jim Rickards predicts that by the end of 2026, gold prices could reach $10,000, while silver prices may touch $200. Meanwhile, influenced by supply shortages and potential tariff threats, copper prices have historically broken through $12,000 per ton, with Citibank predicting it could rise to $15,000 in a bull market scenario.

In this context, the only publicly offered silver futures product in China — Guotou Ruijin Silver Futures Securities Investment Fund (LOF) has become the market focus. The fund's secondary market price once traded at a premium of up to 45% to its unit net value of 1.9278 yuan, reaching 2.804 yuan. After relaxing the subscription limit from 100 yuan to 500 yuan on December 19 to attract arbitrage funds, it was urgently suspended on December 26 and announced that the limit would be readjusted back to 100 yuan starting from the 29th. After resuming trading, the fund hit the daily limit down. As of the resumption, the transaction volume reached 260 million yuan, with the premium rate falling back to about 29.64%. Researcher Bi Mengni from Geshang Fund pointed out that arbitrage funds concentrated on cashing out through the "over-the-counter subscription — T+2 transfer to on-market selling" method, which was the direct reason for the price drop.

The Bitcoin market has been consolidating in the range of $85,000 to $90,000, and this consolidation state is largely attributed by many analysts to the upcoming annual options expiration on December 26. This expiration has a nominal value of up to $23 billion to $28.5 billion, and analysts generally expect that after the expiration is completed, market pressure will ease, and prices may experience a directional breakthrough. However, future trends remain divided. On one hand, analysts like Michaël van de Poppe believe that the commodity market has accumulated significant momentum, and liquidity may shift to other areas. With macroeconomic conditions easing, Bitcoin is expected to break through the $90,000 resistance and move towards $100,000; on-chain data analyst Murphy pointed out that around $87,000, 670,000 BTC have accumulated, forming a strong support zone; analyst Mark is also optimistic about the future market, believing that prices will reach $91,000.

On the other hand, analysts led by Lennaert Snyder and Ted take a cautious stance, believing that prices may need to retest the support around $85,000 before effectively breaking through. Kapoor Kshitiz and CoinDesk's analysis both indicate that Bitcoin has only traded for 28 days in the $70,000 to $80,000 range, showing weak support; while it has stayed near the $30,000 to $50,000 range for nearly 200 days, showing stronger support. If a future pullback occurs, the $70,000 to $80,000 range may require more time to consolidate. Looking ahead, BTSE COO Jeff Mei believes that if the Federal Reserve pauses interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026, Bitcoin may drop to $70,000, but if "invisible quantitative easing" continues, it is expected to surge to $92,000 to $98,000 driven by institutional funds. Additionally, CryptoQuant researcher Axel Adler Jr. warns that Bitcoin's monthly RSI has dropped to 56.5, close to the 4-year average of 58.7, and if it falls below 55, it may enter a deeper adjustment. Ali Charts also states that Bitcoin takes about 1,064 days to rise from market bottom to top, and about 364 days to fall back to the next bottom. If historical patterns continue, the next bottom may appear in October 2026, with an expected price of around $37,500, consistent with an 80% historical average retracement.

Ethereum is also still oscillating in the range of $2,700 to $3,000, without a clear direction. Ted believes that ETH needs to meet one of the following two conditions to see volatility: reclaiming the $3,000 mark or retesting the $2,700-$2,800 range. Analyst Kapoor Kshitiz observed that since November 21, large investors have accumulated an additional 4.8 million ETH to defend their average holding cost of $2,796. If this cost line is breached, the next major on-chain support level may be close to $2,300; BTSE's Jeff Mei predicts that Ethereum's price outlook is closely tied to macro policies, potentially fluctuating between $2,400 (if the Federal Reserve pauses interest rate cuts) and $3,600 (if "invisible QE" continues). CryptoBullet points out that the current price trend of ETH is simulating the market conditions of 2022, and if the current support is breached, the price may drop to the $2,200-$2,400 range, followed by a rebound near the 200-day moving average. Although the short-term trend is unclear, long-term bulls like Trend Research founder Yi Lihua view the current stage as a bottoming phase and plan to continue investing $1 billion to accumulate on dips, betting on a bull market in 2026.

While mainstream crypto assets are consolidating, analyst Axel Bitblaze believes that if Bitcoin is in a mid-term adjustment rather than at a cycle top, it will create a more favorable environment for altcoins to rise, with some quality projects potentially reaching historical highs during this period.

2. Key Data (as of December 26, 13:00 HKT)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $89,036 (YTD -4.85%), daily spot trading volume $32.77 billion

• Ethereum: $2,973 (YTD -10.91%), daily spot trading volume $15.8 billion

• Fear and Greed Index: 20 (Extreme Fear)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1.75 sat/vB, ETH: 0.02 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 59.1%, ETH 12%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: 0G, ZBT, XRP, BTC, ETH

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 49.34% / 50.66%

• Sector performance: Most of the crypto market is down, with the NFT sector down over 7%, while only the AI and SocialFi sectors remain relatively strong.

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 84,780 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $181 million, including $73.65 million in BTC liquidations, $24.97 million in ETH liquidations, and $10.3 million in SOL liquidations.

3. ETF Flows (as of December 24)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$175 million, continuing 5 days of net outflow

• Ethereum ETF: -$52.7049 million

• Solana ETF: +$1.48 million

• XRP ETF: +$11.93 million

4. Today's Outlook

• A $23.7 billion Bitcoin options expiration will occur on Friday, with major positions concentrated around the $85,000 and $100,000 strike prices

• Binance will delist five spot trading pairs including BIO/FDUSD on December 26

• OKX will delist DEGENUSDT and CETUSUSDT perpetual contracts on December 26

Top gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies today: Pippin up 8.4%, Bitcoin Cash up 5.9%, MYX Finance up 5.9%, World Liberty Financial up 5.3%, Curve DAO up 5%.

5. Hot News

• Spot silver breaks $75

• Uniswap protocol fee switch proposal UNIfication passed with overwhelming support

• $230 million long whale adds 210,000 SOL in the early morning, with long positions showing a floating loss of $58.96 million

• A whale adds $4 million to short ETH and ZEC, with HyperLiquid positions showing a floating profit of over $17 million

• The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January next year is 84.5%

• Launchpad performance over the past year: Binance Wallet leads with a 12.69x ROI, ATH ROI of 78.01x

• Ethereum will see the Glamsterdam and Hegota forks in 2026, with gas limits expected to increase to 200 million

• NFT market hits a low in 2025, with a 72% decline in market value for the year

• Ctrip's overseas version Trip.com launches stablecoin payments, supporting USDT and USDC

• Offshore Renminbi breaks the 7 mark for the first time since 2024, onshore Renminbi hits a new high in over a year

• Bitcoin mining difficulty slightly adjusted up by 0.04% to 148.26 T

• A new address withdraws 50,000 ZEC from Binance, worth about $22.17 million

• The most profitable crypto narratives in 2025: RWA and Layer 1 lead, AI and Meme see significant pullbacks, GameFi and DePIN lead declines

• Suspected Multicoin purchases 60 million WLD from the Worldcoin team OTC

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。