After reviewing the 2026 trend outlook reports from five top institutions: a16z, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock, I have distilled two valuable insights:

1) What bubble are we talking about? The AI industry is about to enter an accelerated investment phase!

Morgan Stanley provided a staggering figure: AI infrastructure capital expenditure is expected to reach $3 trillion, with current deployment at less than 20%.

What does this mean? Major cloud providers like Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle are currently pouring money into building data centers, purchasing GPUs, and expanding power facilities, but this is just the beginning.

However, JPMorgan Chase offered a more tempered assessment of the actual benefits brought by this large-scale adoption of AI, suggesting that in the short term, it will only boost profits for some companies and help giants optimize their profitability narrative. To truly achieve a significant transformation in AI productivity, many years will be needed.

In essence, it indicates that 2026 will still be a year of heavy spending on AI, but it is merely an investment phase, far from the harvest moment;

2) U.S. stock market concentration dividend and spillover to non-U.S. markets, which side are you on?

BlackRock introduced a concept called "Micro is Macro," suggesting that the AI investments of a few companies already have macroeconomic influence.

From the data, as of 2025 YTD, the equal-weighted S&P 500 in the U.S. stock market has only risen by 3%, while the market-cap-weighted version of leading tech companies has increased by 11%. This 8% gap may be attributed to the concentration dividend from AI.

In response, Morgan Stanley is the most aggressive, setting a target of 7,800 points for the S&P 500, which represents a 14% increase from the current level, reasoning that the profitability of the seven tech giants will continue to strengthen.

However, JPMorgan Chase believes that as the dollar weakens, the AI dividend will spill over into the global supply chain, thus providing emerging markets with an expected annualized return of 10.9%, higher than the 6.7% for U.S. large-cap stocks. Goldman Sachs also aligns with the spillover perspective, giving emerging markets the same 10.9% expectation, while suggesting that Europe at 7.1% and Japan at 8.2% also have opportunities.

In simple terms, this represents two completely different bets: BlackRock and Morgan Stanley bet that the AI dividend will continue to be monopolized by U.S. tech giants, while JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs bet that AI represents a global infrastructure upgrade, with dividends spreading to non-U.S. markets.

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