Prediction markets are increasingly shaping debates over financial innovation, market structure, and the boundaries between state and federal oversight. Coinbase Financial Markets Inc., a federally regulated derivatives intermediary affiliated with crypto exchange Coinbase (Nasdaq: COIN), filed a lawsuit on Dec. 18 seeking declaratory and injunctive relief to prevent officials from applying state gambling laws to federally regulated prediction markets and event contracts, asserting exclusive federal oversight.

Chief legal officer Paul Grewal stated on social media platform X:

Today Coinbase filed lawsuits in CT, MI, and IL to confirm what is clear: prediction markets fall squarely under the jurisdiction of the CFTC, not any individual state gaming regulator (let alone 50). State efforts to control or outright block these markets stifle innovation and violate the law.

The lawsuits challenge enforcement threats and regulatory overreach from officials in Illinois, Michigan, and Connecticut. These state authorities have warned that companies facilitating access to sports-related event contracts without state gambling licenses may face civil and criminal penalties.

According to the complaints, these states have issued cease-and-desist orders or public warnings to firms, including Kalshi, Coinbase’s exchange partner, asserting that sports-related prediction markets constitute unlawful gambling under state statutes. Coinbase Financial Markets maintains that the Commodity Exchange Act classifies event contracts as swaps and places them under the exclusive jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), thereby preempting state law in all three jurisdictions.

Coinbase officially launched its prediction market offering on Dec. 17, marking a pivotal shift in its strategy to become a diversified “everything exchange.” The rollout formed part of a broader System Update event in which the company also introduced 24/7 commission-free stock and ETF trading for U.S. users, signaling an expansion beyond digital assets into traditional financial products.

Read more: Coinbase Enters New Era as Stocks and Prediction Markets Power Its Bid for the World’s #1 Financial Services App

Grewal further explained the distinction underlying the legal dispute:

Prediction markets are fundamentally different from sportsbooks. Casinos win only if you lose and set odds to maximize their profits. Prediction markets are neutral exchanges, indifferent to price, that match buyers and sellers.

In a follow-up post, Grewal stressed: “We’re right on the law and the facts. And we will prove it.” The filing argues that subjecting federally approved prediction markets to state-by-state gambling regimes would fragment liquidity, undermine uniform market access, and conflict with federal requirements for impartial participation on designated contract markets. Coinbase Financial Markets is asking the court to block state officials from enforcing state gambling laws against its prediction market activities and to declare those laws preempted as applied, contending that consistent federal oversight best supports lawful innovation and market integrity.

• Why is Coinbase suing multiple states over prediction markets?
  Coinbase argues that federal law gives the CFTC exclusive authority over prediction markets, preempting state gambling statutes.
• What are prediction markets under the Commodity Exchange Act?
  Coinbase Financial Markets says event contracts are swaps regulated federally by the CFTC.
• How do prediction markets differ from sportsbooks?
  Prediction markets act as neutral exchanges matching buyers and sellers rather than setting odds for profit.
• What could state enforcement mean for prediction markets?
  Coinbase warns it would fragment liquidity, restrict access, and undermine uniform federal market oversight.

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