Author: DeFi Warhol

Translated by: Tim, PANews

Highlights

Tokenization: The scale of RWA has reached new heights (approximately $20 billion), with an increasing number of stocks and commodities being tokenized. This is no longer just a conceptual level as mainstream funds and custodians continue to expand across major trading platforms.

Stablecoins: As a market with a market capitalization of $310 billion, stablecoins are gradually becoming the infrastructure for foreign exchange, payments, credit cards, and digital banking distribution, serving as the best bridge from the crypto world to real-world applications.

Prediction Markets: The trading volume and user numbers in prediction markets are reaching new highs. With the integration of mainstream crypto applications and traditional financial institutions, the pace of promotion is accelerating.

Perpetual Contracts: Perpetual contracts continue to dominate trading volume in the crypto market, with derivatives trading far exceeding spot trading. The monthly trading volume of on-chain perpetual contract platforms has reached parity with centralized exchanges, surpassing $1 trillion.

Top Tier

BTCFi: Bitcoin is transforming into productive capital, with billions of BTC being used for staking, yield, and collateral, where Babylon and Lombard hold significant shares in BTC staking TVL.

Privacy: As more traditional financial capital shifts on-chain, selective disclosure has become crucial, and institutions need to achieve compliance-friendly privacy protection in payments, identity verification, and corporate fund flows.

AI: AI and crypto technology are continuously evolving, becoming important tools for processing data, driving intelligent agents, and achieving verifiable computation, with immense potential. The scale of this industry is not to be overlooked.

DeFi: DeFi is shifting towards consumer applications, with Coinbase currently offering DEX trading and USDC lending services in-app through Morpho. DeFi TVL has reached an all-time high, and emerging consumer applications are rapidly emerging.

Elite

Chain Abstraction: Smart accounts, intents, and embedded wallets reduce user friction, making blockchain increasingly invisible. Significant improvements in user experience are crucial for adoption, although development is slow.

InfoFi: Despite recent market concerns, uncertainties, and skepticism, InfoFi remains a refinery for data markets, incentive activities, and trading signals. Major progress is imminent for InfoFi; is InfoFi 2.0 on the way?

Robots: Their prospects are grander than actual progress. The pace of hardware and deployment development cannot compare to cryptocurrencies, making this more of an early infrastructure stage.

ZK: It is undoubtedly a core technology, but as an investment target, it is more complex. Most value will accumulate in ecosystems that can apply ZK technology at scale, rather than existing as an independent concept.

Software Infrastructure: Demand remains stable (such as RPC, indexing, interoperability, data availability, etc.), but competition has become extremely fierce. Nevertheless, high-quality projects may still emerge in this field.

NPC

Staking and Re-staking: Re-staking is indeed viable, but yields are continuously compressed, and the risk of penalties is real, making complex operations daunting for ordinary investors. The narrative in this track has been overheated from the start.

DePIN: Ideally, DePIN should integrate and collaborate with the real world, but many projects still struggle to achieve this goal. Regulatory pressure and a lack of sustainable business models are hindering its development.

L1 and L2: Rollups have become the mainstream scaling solution, but the momentum for new public chains is weak. Currently, most value is shifting towards applications, liquidity, and ecosystem distribution, rather than just another underlying protocol.

SocialFi: Although there are occasional peaks in user activity, user retention and lasting product-market fit have yet to be achieved, making it difficult to realize in the short term.

Pullback

GameFi: The Play-to-Earn model has fundamental flaws. While some game chains are still operational, most GameFi projects merely add operational steps, resulting in a worse experience of re-skinned DeFi.

NFT: We have witnessed multiple attempts at a market rebound for NFTs, but market responses indicate that unless new application scenarios are created beyond the limitations of JPEG images and avatars, NFTs will remain trapped in their current predicament. Even attempts at integration in the gaming sector have not achieved breakthroughs.

Meme Coins: The super cycle of meme coins, while lively, is seeing liquidity shift towards serious projects, with their market dominance continuously declining. Retail investors are tired of being repeatedly harvested and chasing the next hundredfold myth.

Modular Blockchains: Important architecture, poor narrative. Users do not care, and investors only care whether there is a clear, sustainable profit effect, which most modular projects currently do not possess.

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