In this issue, HTX Research analyst Chloe will analyze the current risk landscape and possible evolution directions based on macro data, changes in the U.S. stock market, and the structure of the cryptocurrency market.
As we enter December, the global macro environment and the cryptocurrency market are both entering a critical observation period. This week, the concentrated release of manufacturing, employment, and inflation data will become the core basis for the market to reassess the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path, following the statistical vacuum caused by the previous U.S. government shutdown; stock market liquidity and cryptocurrency market sentiment are also being repriced accordingly. In this issue, HTX Research analyst Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) will dissect the current risk landscape and possible evolution directions based on macro data, changes in the U.S. stock market, and the structure of the cryptocurrency market.
High-frequency indicators concentrated release, interest rate cut expectations face repricing
Currently, the macro and cryptocurrency markets are in a typical "multiple data-intensive + policy turning point uncertainty" critical window. Although the market generally bets that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates in December, Powell emphasized last week that due to the absence of official economic data caused by the government shutdown, decision-makers are unlikely to have complete labor and inflation indicators before the meeting. Therefore, the multiple high-frequency data released this week will directly affect whether the probability of an interest rate cut falls back to 50% or is pushed up to nearly 100%.
First is the November ISM Manufacturing PMI. The manufacturing sector has been in a contraction zone since March, with last month's figure at only 48.7, and both new orders and employment components below 50, reflecting that tariff and global demand uncertainties are still fermenting. In contrast, the Services PMI remains at a mild expansion of 52.4, but the price component is high around 70, indicating that inflation pressure comes from domestic services rather than imports. If the services sector strengthens again in November, it will reinforce the hawkish voices within the Federal Reserve; if it falls back to 50, it will almost lock in an immediate interest rate cut in December.
The labor market has become the most influential variable. Due to the cancellation of the October non-farm payrolls and the November non-farm payrolls not being released until December 16 (after the meeting), this week's ADP private sector employment data will be crucial. The October ADP added 42,000 jobs, exceeding expectations; if November unexpectedly strengthens, it will weaken interest rate cut expectations; if it weakens, it will reinforce the argument that "policy needs to be loosened faster." The subsequent Challenger Layoff Report is also highly anticipated, as layoffs in October soared to 153,074, the highest in 22 years. If November continues to rise, the market will reprice the downside risks of the U.S. economy.
The PCE inflation and personal spending data released on Friday is the most important event of the week. The market expects the overall PCE for September to rise slightly from 2.7% to 2.8%, with core PCE remaining at 2.9%. If the data continues to show "inflation stuck at 3%," the pace of interest rate cuts will be limited; if it unexpectedly weakens, it will provide short-term recovery momentum for the market.
Risk appetite under pressure, market awaits directional signals
In the U.S. stock market, Goldman Sachs' trading department pointed out that as volatility recedes and market breadth recovers from -150 at the beginning of the month to +150, the systematic selling pressure in the U.S. stock market has been significantly released since mid-November. December's institutional model is expected to shift from net selling to about $4.7 billion in net buying, indicating that the traditional "Christmas rally" has not completely vanished, but its initiation still depends on whether this week's data supports the interest rate cut path.
In the cryptocurrency market, Huobi HTX data shows that Bitcoin has recently regained the $85,000 mark after experiencing nearly a 30% deep correction since its October peak, but overall it remains in a phase of "weak sentiment + thin liquidity." ETFs continue to see mild net outflows, and Coinbase premiums remain low, indicating that institutions are still on the sidelines. Options data shows a typical risk-averse structure: short-term IV is significantly higher than long-term, and the 25-delta put skew is negative across all maturities, with investors still willing to pay high prices for downside protection, reflecting the market's high expectations for short-term volatility.
Trend lines are not yet clear, macro data will be a watershed
Overall, the current cryptocurrency market is in a sensitive period of "unclear prospects, but bottom structure gradually emerging." If this week's U.S. data presents a combination of "growth slowing but not recession, inflation marginally retreating," then Bitcoin and mainstream assets will experience a natural recovery, with IV likely to decline rapidly, and short volatility strategies will become effective again. Conversely, if manufacturing, employment, or PCE shows significantly stronger-than-expected readings, cooling interest rate cut expectations, then in the weak liquidity environment of the holiday season, the cryptocurrency market may again experience a rapid decline.
In the current situation, the risks faced by heavily positioned single-direction trades have increased. From a structural perspective, the market tends to see more gradual long positioning behavior in low-range areas, while the short-term IV remains at relatively high levels, providing hedging opportunities. The $80,000 to $82,000 range for Bitcoin is still seen as important support, but whether the trend can reverse still requires waiting for this week's macro data to provide clearer directional signals.
Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation of investment products.
About Huobi HTX
Huobi HTX was established in 2013 and has developed over 12 years from a cryptocurrency exchange into a comprehensive blockchain business ecosystem, covering digital asset trading, financial derivatives, research, investment, incubation, and other businesses.
As a global leading Web3 portal, Huobi HTX adheres to a development strategy of global expansion, ecological prosperity, wealth effect, and security compliance, providing comprehensive, safe, and reliable value and services for virtual currency enthusiasts worldwide.
For more information about Huobi HTX, please visit https://www.htx.com/ or HTX Square, and follow X, Telegram, and Discord. For further inquiries, please contact glo-media@htx-inc.com.
About HTX Research
HTX Research is the exclusive research department under Huobi HTX, responsible for in-depth analysis across a wide range of fields including cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends, writing comprehensive reports, and providing professional assessments. HTX Research is committed to providing data-driven insights and strategic foresight, playing a key role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting informed decision-making in the digital asset space. With rigorous research methods and cutting-edge data analysis, HTX Research consistently stands at the forefront of innovation, leading industry thought development and promoting a deeper understanding of the ever-changing market dynamics. Visit us.
If you wish to communicate, please contact research@htx-inc.com.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
