Ray Dalio has launched his AI clone "Digital Ray."

Source: Ray Dalio

Translation: The Wall Street Journal

This article aims to explain to you: 1) why I am excited about my AI clone; 2) the significant differences between AI clones, AI agents, and large language models; 3) how to create an AI clone that performs as well as or even better than the prototype it is based on; and 4) the results I have built so far, the reasons for building it, and my vision for future developments.

Why I Am Excited About My AI Clone

For me, the most exciting progress currently is the integration of intelligent individuals with intelligent AI, as the effectiveness of the decisions made by this combination is unattainable by a single individual without AI assistance or a single AI without human involvement. More specifically, what excites me the most is that AI can make decisions that align with an individual's values, principles, and preferences, thereby making decisions according to the individual's wishes (or even better). This is what I refer to as an "AI clone," which is different from AI agents or large language models that assist people in doing things. I am excited to share with you my AI clone version 1 for the following reasons:

1. It will enable me to have unrestricted conversations with those I previously could not engage deeply with due to time constraints.

2. AI cloning technology is a natural extension of the work I have done over the past 40 years and is the most exciting extension. Shortly after founding Bridgewater Associates about 50 years ago, I began building computer decision-making systems that could execute my will. Computers became excellent decision-making partners because they possess advantages that I do not have (and still do not have), most importantly: greater insight, a stronger ability to automatically process complex problems in real-time, and less emotional interference in investment decisions. Meanwhile, I possess significant advantages that computers do not have, most importantly: my imagination, my learning and research abilities, my common sense, and my empathy in understanding the motivations of others. I built my company (Bridgewater Associates) around this approach, and as I will explain in detail below, I have been continuously doing this for decades. I am excited to continue advancing and exploring the limits on this path of integrating humans and artificial intelligence, and I will explain the specific ways in this article.

3. I hope that by integrating my AI clone with my other decision-making systems, it will ultimately become a super-capable thought partner for myself and others.

4. Sharing everything I have learned, everything I am doing, and everything I envision aligns with my current life’s main goal, which is to pass on what I have that is valuable to others. From my experience in building my own AI clone, I have a deep understanding of the capabilities of AI clones and the conditions required to realize these capabilities. I believe I have a clear understanding of its potential, whether for a) users who want to use digital clones to access the thoughts of the cloned individual, or b) individuals who wish to use digital clones as thought partners. In addition to building my own AI clone for others, I hope to help others by sharing my thoughts on these matters.

5. I eagerly look forward to your use of it and your feedback to help me improve it.

Differences Between AI Clones, AI Agents, and Large Language Models

AI clones replicate the thinking style and all characteristics of a specific individual, including that individual's specific values, perspectives, preferences, and reflective abilities. They are derived from all the elements that shape this unique individual. In contrast, AI agents perform specific tasks, while AI/large language models are excellent general products composed of thoughts from many people and sources, but they lack the values, perspectives, and preferences that are crucial to human decision-making. While I see vast knowledge and processing capabilities in large language models, I do not see much philosophical wisdom, imagination, or out-of-the-box thinking. Instead, I see a very strong tendency to quickly process and output known information. Additionally, there is a significant amount of poor content in large language models—errors, misinformation, a lack of life philosophy, or a lack of good principles and higher-level thinking. Perhaps large language models will eventually acquire these capabilities. Of course, they need these capabilities to meet our needs.

If you want to know my opinion on something, rather than the general thoughts that a large language model would provide on that matter, you must ask me or my AI clone, not a large language model. Because we all value the specific values, perspectives, preferences, and wisdom of particular individuals more than the general content provided by large language models, the viewpoints and suggestions of large language models are unlikely to replace those of the most valued thinkers in the short term. Moreover, if a large language model does not incorporate your values, perspectives, preferences, and wisdom, as well as those traits of others you respect, it cannot make you the best decision-maker you could potentially be.

Imagine, which large language model can you trust to make your most important decisions? I believe none, and I think this situation will not change unless the kind of "personalization" I am talking about is achieved. In contrast, I believe that a well-developed AI clone with similar values, perspectives, and preferences can become an excellent thought partner, helping guide you to make better decisions. Moreover, they can engage in unrestricted conversations with you. With a well-constructed AI clone, you will be able to have unrestricted conversations directly with their AI clones, rather than just listening to the remarks of influencers or podcast interviews. There are many people I admire, and I would love to have long conversations with them, but I cannot because their time is limited. If these individuals all had excellent AI clones that could engage with me as if they were themselves, I would be very happy. Furthermore, I hope to have a group of such clones work together as an advisory committee to collectively discuss issues. Who knows where this will lead? I want to help push the limits and explore the answers.

AI clones are currently in the budding stage of development. Many different individuals and companies are experimenting, and the existing clones seem interesting because they can be made to look and sound like the person being replicated and can answer a limited number of preset questions. However, I have yet to see a clone that can engage in deep conversations with users, with dialogue quality comparable to that of conversations between users and the individual being AI cloned. I believe this is because their creators have not yet completed the daunting task of training the clone based on the entirety of the thoughts of the individual being cloned.

The reason my AI clone can now engage in deep conversations with you, with content that is nearly indistinguishable from the conversations you and I would have, is primarily due to the vast amount of training it has received.

How to Make an AI Clone Perform as Well as or Even Better Than the Cloned Individual

The key lies in training.

For about the past 40 years, I have spent a significant amount of time writing down my principles and decision rules and recording the questions I have received and my answers. Thanks to the habits I have developed, I think about and write down the principles/standards I use for decision-making almost every time I make a decision. I then program these principles/standards into a computer, creating a computer decision-maker, which is essentially an early form of my AI clone.

Initially, I only used this method for my market trading at Bridgewater Associates with my team. We collaboratively created a decision-making system that could be backtested, allowing the computer to execute a well-thought-out game plan, just as a well-programmed computer can play chess. As a result, the computer's decision-making was synchronized with mine and my team's decision-making in our minds. We coordinated any discrepancies, and the standards of both the computer and us ultimately merged into the computer system. Those decision clones became the primary decision-makers for investment at Bridgewater Associates and the foundation of its success. This remains true to this day.

Later, I began using it in personnel management at Bridgewater Associates and eventually expanded it to nearly all my decisions. As I transitioned to a guiding phase of life, I applied it to my coaching work. About eight years ago, I developed an application called "Coach," through which people could interact with it for advice. I also wrote books, provided advice on social media, and collaborated with the Singapore Wealth Management Institute to create an investment course to pass on my investment principles. Then, starting at the end of 2022, with the emergence of Chat GPT and other large language models, I input most of this material into a large language model that we customized in various ways to train it, creating what I currently refer to as the "Digital Ray" version of Coach.

While I previously followed this method to achieve success in investing and managing Bridgewater Associates, I now do it because I believe I can help people. For example, a few days ago, I solicited questions about gold from everyone. I received hundreds of questions, and then I had Digital Ray answer these questions based on all the knowledge I had previously shared with it about gold; I then reviewed all the answers and made adjustments to ensure they perfectly reflected what I wanted to say, making them ideal for all future moments. If I did not do this curation, these answers would resemble the general answers that a large language model would provide rather than my true answers.

As you might imagine, if you recorded everything you know and feel (including your values, intuitions, principles, and preferences), cataloged almost all the questions people have asked you and the answers you have given, and then input all of this into the training of an AI clone, you would end up with a pretty good AI clone of yourself. This is essentially what I have done and what those who wish to be high-quality clones need to do to engage in high-quality conversations on a wide range of topics.

My Current Achievements and Vision for the Future

With the help of my excellent team, I now have the first version of my AI clone, which can engage in conversations with people at a level roughly equivalent to their conversations with me, but without my time constraints.

I believe this is true because for about two years, I and those who work with me have been testing this AI clone to see how its answers compare to the answers I might give. Hundreds of independent testers have also evaluated the quality of its answers. The AI clone has performed excellently in these tests.

According to those who have tested it, in terms of principles for life and work, it has about 95% similarity to the effect of talking to the real me, as it has received good training in this area. In discussions about markets, investments, economics, politics, and geopolitics, it has about 80% similarity to the effect of talking to the real me. This is because it has not yet been trained as thoroughly on these topics as it has on the former. Training in this area is currently underway, so I expect it will soon be able to converse with you in these fields just like I do. I anticipate that with more training, Digital Ray will become more knowledgeable and faster in handling many complex considerations, thus becoming much better than I am.

I am currently conducting another round of larger-scale testing to gather suggestions for further improvements. I suspect that if you find value in talking to me as an advisor, you will now find Digital Ray to be an excellent thought partner, and it will learn very quickly, becoming stronger in the future. I hope you will collaborate with me to make Digital Ray your advisor, as it is both smarter than I am and available to serve you at any time. (If you are interested, you can register here.)

Digital Ray can interact with you through text and voice, so you can now have conversations with it about life and work just as you would with me. According to feedback from those who have used it, you will find that the thoughts and communications obtained from Digital Ray in these conversations are nearly indistinguishable from those you would receive directly from me, and it does not produce hallucinations. I also know that if you allow Digital Ray to understand you, you can have high-quality personalized conversations with it, just like talking to me. Therefore, I recommend that you take the "PrinciplesYou" personality assessment, which will allow Digital Ray to gain a deeper understanding of your characteristics.

In summary, achieving the current level of Digital Ray requires a large amount of carefully curated training data, which is difficult for others to match. To reach a comparable level, it is necessary to pose all possible questions that could be asked of the cloned individual (at least several thousand) and receive their answers, which is essentially what we have done.

As for expectations regarding clones of others, I know that my ability to build this clone is easier for me than for others because I have had the opportunity to engage with some of the most knowledgeable and resource-rich individuals in the world. They also want to do this for themselves, but they cannot because they have not undergone the process of clarifying all their decision-making standards. I hope they will do so in the future.

Now, based on my experience and what I have learned through research, I will discuss what I believe may happen.

What I Believe May Happen

Regarding AI's capabilities compared to humans, while computers can make excellent decisions, as seen in chess, Go, and self-driving cars, they currently fall short of being fully reliable decision-makers that people can depend on to capture preferences and wisdom and weigh matters like the cloned individual. Just as you are more inclined to seek advice from certain people because you respect their values, abilities, skills, preferences, wisdom, and personality, it is clear that you would also want to see the same qualities in the AI clone from which you seek advice.

Conventional large language models do not possess these qualities because the "thinking" of large language models is generic. For example, your AI cannot tell you what wine and food it loves and recommends to you, and if you think its taste is good, you would appreciate that. It also cannot express its feelings or empathize with yours; it can only pretend to do so. Large language models do not have personalities and preferences that resonate with you. Instead, they are "one-size-fits-all" thinkers. But I know that if these traits are input from the cloned individual, they can possess these qualities, as that is what I have accomplished.

All of this is already a lot.

I believe the evolution of AI will lead to people having their personalized AIs, referred to as "My AI," which will receive and filter information to ensure that its content is carefully curated to suit each individual's preferences. This will make them far more reliable than the generic AIs that currently exist.

There are many things that AI cannot do but humans can. We know there are limitations because artificial intelligence lacks the kind of intelligence that humans possess, which arises from the complexity of interactions among various parts of the brain (such as neurons, synapses, chemicals, and electrical signals). These elements produce subconsciousness, instincts, intuitions, and emotions that have been shaped by millions of years of experience and evolution. AI can pretend to have these things, but they do not actually possess them.

Therefore, while they can become excellent thought partners that outperform humans in many ways (for example, thoroughly, quickly, and unemotionally analyzing complex information), they will remain at a disadvantage in other areas (such as lacking emotional intelligence and intuition). In fact, I find that because they rely too heavily on what they have learned, they often lack the kind of out-of-the-box insight that is crucial for success. At least, I have not seen this kind of thinking in the fields of investment and economics. (That said, in certain areas, such as medicine, materials science, and many other fields, AI has indeed provided some insights/discoveries that are considered incredible and unprecedented.)

In any case, I look forward to continuing to work with my AI, competing in the market and other areas against those who do not have excellent AI partners (or those who do not have excellent human partners for their AI), as I believe this is a fair test of our different approaches.

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