According to 10x Research, the net asset value (NAV) of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT) has collapsed, but it may not be as bad as it sounds and can be seen as an opportunity for savvy investors.
"The financial magic era of Bitcoin treasury companies is coming to an end," analysts from 10x Research stated in a report shared with Cointelegraph on Friday.
"They conjured up billions of dollars in paper wealth by issuing stocks far above the actual value of Bitcoin—until the illusion vanished," they continued.
In this "magic," DAT essentially transferred the premium that retail investors paid for stocks into the company's actual Bitcoin. They noted that shareholders lost billions of dollars while executives accumulated real BTC.
The researchers cited the example of Metaplanet, the fourth-largest Bitcoin treasury company, which effectively transformed an $8 billion market cap supported only by $1 billion in Bitcoin holdings into a $3.1 billion market cap supported by $3.3 billion in BTC.
Retail investors paid 2 to 7 times the actual Bitcoin value when buying these stocks during the hype. Now that these premiums have disappeared, many shareholders are at a loss, while the company converts this inflated capital into real Bitcoin.
They pointed out that Michael Saylor's Strategy experienced a similar "NAV boom and bust cycle," which led to a slowdown in Bitcoin purchases.
The normalization of NAV creates a rare entry opportunity for savvy investors. Companies trading at NAV or below NAV now offer pure Bitcoin exposure, along with options for future alpha generation and upside potential from any trading profits.
This reshuffling will also distinguish true operators from marketing machines. Companies that survive this transformation will be battle-tested, well-capitalized, and capable of generating sustainable returns, thus creating a new category of Bitcoin asset managers.
The researchers stated that the DATs that adapt now will "define the next bull market," and summarized:
Strategy stock (MSTR) rose 2% on Friday, closing at $289.87. However, according to Google Finance data, the stock has fallen 39% since reaching an all-time high closing price of $473.83 in November 2024.
Metaplanet stock (MTPLF) fell 6.5% yesterday on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, dropping to 402 yen ($2.67), a staggering 79% decline since its peak of 1895 yen ($12.58) in mid-June.
Related: Venture Capitalists: Stablecoins are just CBDCs wrapped in private issuance
Original article: “10x Research: Bitcoin (BTC) Treasury NAV Collapse Creates Opportunities for Investors”
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