This October is destined to be extraordinary.

Author: Jin Shi Data

On Thursday morning, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3900-point mark for the first time in ten years, rising over 1% as of the time of publication; the ChiNext Index rose over 2% during the session, and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by over 1.6%, with nearly 3000 stocks in the two markets rising. On the market, precious metals, nuclear fusion, and non-ferrous metals led the gains.

During the recently concluded National Day holiday, global market hotspots were abundant, with non-ferrous metals, semiconductors, and AI sectors performing particularly well. COMEX gold futures rose 4.45% during the holiday, driving gold stocks to soar collectively; AMD surged over 40% due to its collaboration with OpenAI. Sora 2 also gained significant attention, with multiple positive factors injecting vitality into the market after the holiday, making related sectors the focus of attention.

The consensus in brokerage research reports is that during this long holiday, the overseas market news was relatively positive, with major global risk assets strengthening in tandem. U.S. stocks, Japanese stocks, and gold all reached historical highs, creating a favorable macro environment for the A-share market after the holiday. Structurally, the market hotspots during the long holiday were concentrated in the resource and AI sectors, especially with frequent catalysts emerging from the AI industry, which is expected to further drive the technology growth style in October.

Dongwu Securities pointed out that under the traditional calendar effect, the market often shows a pattern of "more gains and fewer losses" after long holidays. Moreover, in the two trading days before this year's long holiday, the market had already shown signs of capital betting on a rebound in advance, so attention should be paid to the coordination of volume and price in the index levels in the future. During the holiday, both internal and external news was relatively positive, especially with rising expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and significant trends in the AI industry, indicating that the market style may lean towards directions with catalysts, stronger long-term growth attributes, and lower valuation constraints in the short term. Additionally, the cyclical chain supported by policy boosts and price increase logic is expected to perform well.

Huatai Securities noted three major changes to focus on after the National Day holiday: 1) Domestically, the September PMI showed a marginal rebound, holiday travel data reached historical highs, inbound and outbound tourism performed well, and high-frequency data in catering, cinema, and real estate also rebounded; 2) Overseas, the U.S. government shutdown and the Japanese election increased risk aversion demand, with gold prices hitting new highs, but the narrative of global liquidity easing strengthened under rising expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and Japanese fiscal expansion; 3) In the industry, OpenAI released Sora 2 and announced collaborations and agreements with multiple companies, accelerating AI investment and application implementation. After the holiday, the calendar effect and the incremental information from the holiday are overall positively influencing risk appetite, suggesting continued positioning around relatively low-priced varieties within the main line.

Changjiang Securities pointed out that the October market will welcome the dual catalysts of earnings season and policy windows, and A-shares are expected to continue the current structural upward trend. Strategically, it is recommended to focus on three main lines: first, the "high prosperity + high elasticity" direction, such as telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, gaming, and Hong Kong internet sectors; second, the "expected event catalyst" direction, such as low-altitude economy and embodied intelligence concepts; third, the value direction, such as non-bank financial sectors with improving fundamentals.

BOC International Securities expects the current A-share upward trend to unfold in three steps. First is the structural market of core technology sectors, with high prosperity and performance drivers in AI hard technology areas, such as AI computing power and edge computing leading the gains. Next is the structural market of the broad technology growth style, which will expand to broader growth directions, such as robotics and innovative pharmaceuticals after the semi-annual reports. Finally, after clues of macroeconomic improvement emerge, the upward trend will further expand to "anti-involution" concepts and large consumption sectors. The current A-share market performance is still in the first phase, and investors are advised to continue focusing on core technology directions.

Guotai Junan Securities pointed out that in the past, global investors believed that the U.S. dollar was the only payer under fiscal expansion and technological prosperity, and the continued weakening of the dollar has become the core theme of trading for all assets in recent times. However, historical experience tells us that Chinese bull markets often rely on the "Chinese story"; an excessive reliance on the weak dollar logic will mean that a shift is needed during the bull market's progression, and investors should be prepared for more changes from both global driving logic and domestic shifts.

China Galaxy Securities stated that October is expected to welcome a key policy window for A-shares, and market risk appetite may further warm up. At the same time, market liquidity continues to show a positive trend, with the margin balance already in an upward channel, and the relocation of residents' deposits is still in the early stages. The U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts provide support for global liquidity. The A-share market is expected to continue a pattern of fluctuating upward movement. In terms of allocation, a series of recent events will benefit the upward trend of the non-ferrous metals sector. Additionally, under policy expectations, the market is likely to focus on the "14th Five-Year Plan" layout. Investors can pay special attention to themes of new productive forces, "anti-involution" concepts, large consumption sectors, and "dual-weight" fields.

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