The technical overselling, bearish positions in the options market, and rising panic sentiment indicate that the cryptocurrency market is currently in a fragile stage.
Recently, Bitcoin has fallen below important support levels, leading to a rapid decline in overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market. In this issue, HTX Research analyst Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) will analyze the current fragile market structure based on Bitcoin's technical patterns, dynamics in the derivatives market, and upcoming macro data.
Market Imbalance Intensifies, Panic Sentiment Rises
As of the early morning of September 26, Bitcoin has dropped below the support level of $114,500 to $115,000, with the latest quote around $112,967. Over the past week, more than $92.7 million has flowed out of exchanges, and the on-chain return rate (SOPR) has decreased, resulting in over $400 million in liquidations. The technical indicators show that the 20-day moving average has crossed below the 50-day moving average and converged with the 100-day moving average, while the RSI has dropped to 36, approaching the oversold zone but without a clear reversal signal yet. The cost price for short-term holders is around $111,400, and whales have sold approximately 147,000 BTC in the past month, putting pressure on market sentiment.
Data from the options market shows a prevailing bearish sentiment. The "maximum pain point" from Deribit data is at $110,000, and the perpetual contract funding rate has dropped to about 4%, indicating a lack of speculative enthusiasm. The proportion of put options traded has increased, and the Put/Call trading ratio continues to decline, suggesting that investors prefer to lock in profits using in-the-money put options. Meanwhile, total open interest is nearing historical highs, and Gamma exposure is close to peak levels, forcing market makers to hedge in a downturn, amplifying price volatility.
Sentiment is also pessimistic. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index shows a value of 28 on September 25, indicating "fear," down from 44 the previous day and 53 the week before, reflecting a rapid deterioration in investor sentiment. According to the index's definition, 0–25 indicates extreme fear, 26–46 indicates fear, and 47–54 indicates neutrality. This means the market is shifting from neutral to a clear risk-averse stance. The volatility index (VIX) for U.S. stocks above 16 indicates that the market expects increased volatility over the next 30 days. Financial analysis platform CoffeewithQ points out that a VIX above 16 does not indicate panic, but traders expect market volatility to increase, possibly due to upcoming important economic data, geopolitical risks, and technical weaknesses; when the VIX is in the 16–20 range, market sentiment is defined as "increasing volatility," while 20–30 tends to be tense, and above 30 indicates panic. We believe that the current fear index presents a good opportunity for bottom-fishing.
Future Trends Will Be Dominated by Key Macro Data
Next week's macroeconomic data may become a key factor influencing sentiment. The U.S. Department of Commerce will release personal income and spending data for August on September 26. Current forecasts generally predict a month-on-month increase in personal income of 0.3% and a 0.5% increase in personal consumption expenditures; the PCE price index is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month and reach 2.7% year-on-year. The core PCE price index, which is more closely watched by the Federal Reserve, is expected to fall to 0.2% month-on-month, while remaining around 2.9% year-on-year. If the core PCE exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve may continue to adopt a cautious stance, which would be unfavorable for risk assets. Subsequently, the non-farm payroll report for September will be released on October 3, with the market generally expecting a slowdown in growth; if the data is strong, it could further raise interest rate expectations, potentially increasing selling pressure in the cryptocurrency market, while a weaker report could alleviate pressure. Additionally, the U.S. balance of payments data to be released on September 29 and the ISM manufacturing index in early October are also important indicators for measuring economic momentum.
In summary, the technical overselling, bearish positions in the options market, and rising panic sentiment indicate that the cryptocurrency market is currently in a fragile stage. In the short term, the market may continue to test the $110,000 support level and watch for signs of "liquidation panic"; if the key support holds and the core PCE and employment data are weak, a rebound from oversold conditions may occur.
Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation for investment products.
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