When a piece of news extends into multiple prediction themes flowing across different platforms, the aggregator track is entering its moment of glory.
Author: June, Deep Tide TechFlow
As soon as Musk's compensation plan was announced, traders' fingers were already flying over their keyboards. But they weren't looking to buy Tesla stock; they were searching for related questions on prediction markets.
In their view, this news could lead to a variety of prediction themes: Who will be the world's first trillionaire? When will Musk surpass a trillion in wealth? What will Tesla's market value trend be this quarter? In which city will Robotaxi land first?
This is the daily routine of prediction market traders: behind a piece of news often lie multiple themes and opportunities across various prediction platforms.
However, the reality is that traders need to search for relevant markets on multiple platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless, compare odds, and monitor price changes.
This event alone highlights the shortcomings of the existing market.
If relevant prediction markets could be automatically matched based on news content, trading efficiency would significantly improve; conversely, if traders could quickly grasp key points and place precise bets after news releases, their win rates would also increase significantly.
This coexistence of multiple platforms presents unprecedented challenges for traders: finding the best odds requires switching between platforms, capturing arbitrage opportunities necessitates monitoring price differences across different platforms, and obtaining comprehensive information demands continuous tracking of the latest market news.
This fragmented information not only consumes time and energy but also hinders traders from making optimal decisions.
Trading volume catches up with Meme, but information noise is greater
Do you remember the explosion of Meme coins last year?
In 2024, the Pumpfun launch platform rapidly rose.
At that time, new coins were emerging one after another, with issuance speeds dizzying. Faced with such a vast and rapidly growing market, traders quickly became overwhelmed, making it extremely unrealistic to manually track every new project. In this chaos, trading bots and aggregation platforms emerged to help users filter information, discover opportunities, and simplify complex trading processes.
Now, this scene is being replayed in the prediction market. On September 8, the single-day trading volume of prediction markets reached $270 million, with Kalshi accounting for 80%, equivalent to 38% of the overall Meme coin trading volume on Solana. The prediction market is gaining momentum and is beginning to attack the Meme coin market.
As more and more prediction market platforms emerge, traders are once again facing the problem of information overload.
When supply exceeds human processing capacity, aggregation and automation tools become essential. This is a process that all rapidly growing crypto ecosystems will experience.
At this moment, the prediction market stands at this turning point.
Giants compete, and many seek to gain
The heat of the prediction market has been evident for several months.
In May of this year, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) withdrew its appeal against Kalshi. In the same month, Kalshi began supporting cryptocurrency deposits, including various assets like USDC, RLUSD, SOL, BTC, WLD, and XRP, providing users with funding options beyond traditional methods. In June, Kalshi raised $185 million in a Series C round led by Paradigm, reaching a valuation of $2 billion and officially entering the unicorn ranks.
Meanwhile, Polymarket also reported plans to raise about $200 million at a valuation exceeding $1 billion, with both giants receiving capital's favor. However, Polymarket's journey in the U.S. has been quite tortuous. During 2022, the platform was fined $1.4 million by the CFTC for operating an unregistered binary options market and was forced to restrict access for U.S. users.
Just as it gained fame for accurately predicting the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the FBI suddenly showed up eight days later, seizing founder Coplan's computer and phone. The plot took a turn during Trump's administration. The judicial investigation abruptly halted, and Polymarket acquired QCEX as a "ticket back to the U.S." On September 4, the CFTC officially gave the green light.
With the loosening of the regulatory environment and the dual boost of capital, an excellent soil has been created for the explosion of the prediction market track.
At this moment, the competitive landscape is quietly changing. After recruiting well-known crypto KOL John Wang as Head of Crypto, Kalshi has performed impressively. Since August 25, its weekly trading volume has begun to surpass Polymarket, intensifying the competition between the two giants.
As the giants compete, new challengers are already stirring: MyriadMarkets (founded by Rug Radio and Decrypt Media founder Farokh), Truemarkets, HedgehogMarket, DriftProtocol, and Limitless, among others.
The prediction market is rapidly reshaping, and these platforms undoubtedly want to carve out a piece of the thriving market.
Just as the "Meme frenzy" of yesteryear gave rise to tools from early Bananabot to GMGN platform, and later Axiom, the prediction market battle is creating huge market demand for aggregators.
The prototype of the aggregator begins to emerge
The pain points mentioned at the beginning have spawned a batch of innovative solutions. Although most are still in beta, they have already shown great potential.
@rileyxcook developed monitorthesituation.lol, which displays real-time order books across platforms and can automatically match similar markets on Kalshi, Limitless, and Polymarket, allowing traders to spot price differences at a glance.
Verso Trading has built a smarter news engine that consolidates repetitive news headlines into a single event and provides impact and relevance scores. This allows users to see which news truly affects Kalshi's contract prices, and the platform is about to launch a low-latency real-time alert feature to notify users immediately when news or tweets may impact the market.
The 16-year-old engineer @agpkeleta created Aerospace. This is a prediction market trading terminal equipped with real-time news push, capable of accurately matching alpha information with relevant markets. This allows traders to quickly seize market opportunities based on confirmed results before the market resolves to "yes." So far, the site only supports Polymarket, with Kalshi set to launch soon.
These tools all address the same core issue: integrating news information with relevant prediction markets into a unified platform to facilitate complex trading. Although still in the early stages, these beta versions have already demonstrated the value proposition of aggregators.
Future outlook: greater opportunities
When a gap appears in the market, opportunities follow.
The rise of prediction market aggregators is not coincidental but a necessary result of a thriving ecosystem.
A flourishing ecosystem requires diversified infrastructure support, a pattern we have already witnessed during last year's Meme coin explosion. Once core asset classes mature, tools, analytical platforms, and automated solutions surrounding them emerge like mushrooms after rain, ultimately forming a complete ecological loop.
The current prediction market may be at the same critical point.
As more platforms emerge and the user base expands, the demand for specialized tools will only grow stronger.
Aggregators may just be the beginning.
We are likely to see more innovations, such as cross-platform arbitrage bots, AI-driven market analysis tools, and institutional-grade risk management systems. The prediction market is no longer just a simple "bet"; it is evolving into a complex trading ecosystem that requires professional tools and in-depth analysis. Those projects that can provide core infrastructure during this transition period are likely to become the most important components of this emerging ecosystem.
Bonus: Since this is a prediction market, why not let AI predict what the future will look like? The author asked AI to boldly envision the future of this track, and here is its response.
Short term (6-12 months):
The aggregator battle is about to begin
Polymarket vs Kalshi upgrade: both will launch more similar markets, directly competing, and users will see fierce price wars for the same event across different platforms
New platforms will "copy homework": wildly replicate popular markets, leading to severe homogenization
Medium term (1-2 years):
API integration becomes standard: successful aggregators will force platforms to open better APIs, or they will lose traffic
Institutional players enter: hedge funds and quantitative teams will begin to use prediction markets for arbitrage on a large scale, reducing the advantage of retail investors
Vertical segmentation emerges: prediction markets specializing in sports, politics, and crypto will rise, while general platforms begin to differentiate
Long term (3-5 years):
Major platform reshuffle: only 2-3 mainstream platforms will remain, while others will either be acquired or die
Aggregators become "super gateways": the most successful aggregators may launch their own markets, becoming both channels and platforms
AI-driven predictions become mainstream: AI analyzes news and social media data to automatically place bets, while human predictions become a niche hobby
Boldest prediction: The future prediction market aggregator will be like today's brokerages, not only displaying prices but also providing leverage, options, and portfolio investment financial tools. By then, the prediction market will truly become a mature financial category.
Which prediction do you think is most likely to come true?
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