Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

On the eve of the important U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report release tonight, market sentiment is generally influenced by a series of weaker-than-expected economic data, including a significant slowdown in ADP employment growth and initial jobless claims exceeding expectations, which have reinforced market expectations for an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Economists predict that the number of new non-farm jobs in August will be only 75,000, with the unemployment rate possibly rising to a three-year high of 4.3%. If the data meets or falls short of expectations, it will further solidify the rate cut path. Currently, the CME FedWatch Tool shows a 97.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting. The market anticipates that this policy shift could drive Bitcoin prices higher.

Meanwhile, in terms of trade policy, U.S. President Trump has signed an executive order to officially reduce the tariff on Japanese imported cars from 27.5% to 15%, eliminating uncertainty for the Japanese automotive industry and securing an agreement for Japan to invest $550 billion in U.S. projects and expand agricultural product purchases.

Driven by macroeconomic expectations, the Bitcoin market is in a critical consolidation phase. Analysts generally believe that price movements depend on whether key support can be maintained or upper resistance can be broken. From a downside risk perspective, Glassnode warns that if it falls below $104,000, the price could drop to the range of $93,000 to $95,000. Conversely, breaking through $114,000 to $116,000 would reignite the upward trend. Most analysts are focusing on the core support range of $107,000 to $108,500. CryptoQuant's Axel Adler Jr points out that $107,600 is a key monthly bullish support, while analysts from Daan Crypto Trades and Delphi Digital believe there is a possibility of clearing liquidity around $107,000. If this support fails, Scient and EliZ believe the next stop will be $105,000 or even $100,000. Currently, the price is hovering around the $110,000 mark, and Evanss6 believes that if bears cannot suppress the price below this level, a rebound is likely. However, the real resistance is at $112,000, which is not only the maximum pain point for options expiration but also the upper limit of consolidation that Daan Crypto Trades has pointed out has been repeatedly blocked. To restore the upward trend, Swissblock believes it is necessary to break through the resistance zone of $113,600 to $115,600, ultimately challenging $118,000 and filling the CME gap between $114,000 and $117,000.

Short-term support for Ethereum is focused on the $4,215-$4,250 range. Man of Bitcoin points out that if the $4,215 trend line is lost, it will test $4,071, while Crypto Jobs believes that $4,250 is a dividing line between bulls and bears; a drop below this could trigger a pullback to the $4,000 to $4,050 range. In the medium term, the price could deeply retrace to around $3,800, which he considers a key demand area and a potential starting point for the next bull market. Additionally, Ethereum options worth $1.27 billion are set to expire today, with $4,400 being the maximum pain point for options expiration.

In the altcoin market, the tokenization project CARDS based on Pokémon cards has surged nearly tenfold in two days, sparking market discussions. Bitwise analyst Danny Nelson points out that this represents an important RWA (Real World Asset) crypto transformation, bringing revolutionary changes to the large but inefficient trading market of physical collectibles like Pokémon cards, with potential comparable to Polymarket's impact on prediction markets. On the other hand, the project World Liberty Financial (WLFI), supported by the Trump family, has fallen into controversy, dropping to $0.162 yesterday. During this period, Sun Yuchen claimed that his $9 million tokens as an early investor in WLFI were unjustly frozen and called for the team to unfreeze them.

2. Key Data (as of September 5, 12:00 HKT)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)

• Bitcoin: $111,631 (YTD +16.24%), daily spot trading volume $38.17 billion

• Ethereum: $4,339.110 (YTD +32.29%), daily spot trading volume $28.716 billion

• Fear and Greed Index: 47 (Neutral)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.165 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 58.1%, ETH 13.81%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: WLFI, ETH, XRP, BTC, SOL

• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 50.82%/49.18%

• Sector performance: L2 up 1.86%, GameFi up 1.12%

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 97,849 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $253 million, including $46.06 million in BTC, $81.97 million in ETH, and $14.85 million in SOL.

• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: Upper line ($112,552.80), lower line ($110,324.03)

• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: Upper line ($4,439.19), lower line ($4,351.28)

*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF Flows (as of September 4)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$227 million, with only BlackRock's IBIT achieving net inflow

• Ethereum ETF: -$167 million, continuing four days of net outflow

4. Today's Outlook

• Binance Alpha will launch WORLDSHARDS (SHARDS) on September 5, Boost (BOOST)

• Immutable (IMX) will unlock approximately 24.52 million tokens at 8:00 AM on September 5, accounting for 1.27% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $12.8 million;

• MYX Finance (MYX) will unlock approximately 39.36 million tokens on September 6, valued at approximately $50.14 million

• Jito (JTO) will unlock approximately 11.31 million tokens on September 7, valued at approximately $23.46 million

• U.S. August unemployment rate: Previous value 4.20%, expected value 4.30% (September 5, 20:30)

• U.S. August seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls (in ten thousands): Previous value 7.3, expected value 7.5 (September 5, 20:30)

Today, the top gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization are: MemeCore up 25.4%, Pump.fun up 10.3%, Mantle up 5.5%, POL (formerly MATIC) up 5.1%, FORM up 4.5%.

5. Hot News

• WLFI TOP1 individual holder has dispersed 79.54 million WLFI to 9 addresses in the last 18 hours

• Anchorage Digital associated address has accumulated a recharge of 5 million ENA to Binance in the last 17 hours

• Tokenized Pokémon TCG trading volume exceeded $120 million in four major markets in August

• Bitmine purchased $65.3 million in ETH again, increasing its holdings to $7.72 billion

• An Ethereum ICO participant staked 150,000 ETH to ETH2 after 8 years of silence, worth approximately $656 million

• After transferring $9 million worth of WLFI tokens, Sun Yuchen's wallet was blacklisted by the project team

• In August, Ethereum's monthly spot trading volume on CEX reached approximately $480 billion, surpassing Bitcoin for the first time

• Morph completed the destruction of 220 million BGB and locked 220 million BGB to an independent address of the foundation

• Trend Research recharged 77.9 million NEIRO into Bybit, worth $6.04 million

• Moca Network launched MocaPortfolio with a scale of $20 million, providing the community with access to the Animoca ecosystem

• AlphaTON Capital announced the launch of its TON digital asset strategy, acquiring approximately $100 million in TON

• ArbitrumDAO launched its first quarter DeFi incentive program, distributing 24 million ARB

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