Why is it difficult for Ethereum to surpass Bitcoin?

Compiled by: Liu Jiao Chain

Recently, Tom Lee from Fundstrat Capital mentioned in a live broadcast that BMNR has established the world's largest reserve of over 800,000 ETH and believes that today's ETH is like BTC in 2017 (rising from less than $1,000 to over $114,000 now), and that ETH will surpass BTC by a hundredfold.

In response, netizen @BastienSinclair posted a rebuttal. He believes that based on the laws of network dynamics and consensus facts, ETH (Ethereum) will never "flip" BTC. Here are seven points:

First, BTC is the only trustless base layer.

1.1 BTC is the only truly decentralized, immutable, and censorship-resistant currency network in the world.

1.2 Proof of Work (PoW) enforces thermodynamic costs and real-world anchoring.

Second, BTC operates on approximately 1 ZettaHash of PoW computing power per second. (Note: 1 ZettaHash per second equals 1,000 ExaHash per second, approximately 10^21 H/s)

2.1 ETH abandoned PoW and switched to PoS — BTC currently runs on about 1 ZettaHash per second of raw computing power.

2.2 The security backed by energy cannot be faked and is independent of politics.

Third, Proof of Stake (PoS) is essentially human governance.

3.1 PoS is a political mechanism, not a security model.

3.2 Large holders dominate consensus — whoever controls the most ETH has the most say.

3.3 Zero external costs = zero cost for wrongdoing = forced return to trust dependency.

Fourth, ETH has changed its rules multiple times.

4.1 DAO rescue incident (2016): rewriting the historical ledger.

4.2 The Great Merge upgrade (2022): overturning the consensus mechanism.

4.3 Future variables? Everything can be changed.

4.4 BTC's rules are as solid as a rock — consensus ≠ governance.

Fifth, winner takes all: the network effect is already established.

5.1 BTC is money, while Ethereum is a technology stack.

5.2 Currency networks have zero-sum and reflexive properties — the optimal store of value will consume others.

5.3 BTC has triumphed in the Lindy effect. (Note: The Lindy Effect refers to the idea that the longer something has existed, the more likely it is to continue to exist in the future — like time-honored brands, classic theories, or enduring entities like BTC, which are more likely to survive long-term the longer they have already survived.)

Sixth, monetary premium is indivisible.

6.1 BTC's core value lies in absolute scarcity and trustless final settlement.

6.2 Ethereum's competitors are over twenty public chains like Solana and Avalanche.

6.3 BTC's competitor is fiat currency itself.

Seventh, BTC has anti-capture properties.

7.1 Proof of Work (PoW) achieves physical-level defense through energy, geographical distribution, and hardware.

7.2 Proof of Stake (PoS) chains may be controlled by regulators or whales.

7.3 Who would you trust to provide the monetary base layer? Miners or stakers?

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