Is this company the real stablecoin unicorn?

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10 hours ago

Author: Alex Liu, Foresight News

On the evening of July 21, the native token ENA of Ethena surged by 20% to reach 0.59 USDT, a nearly six-month high, influenced by the news that "the Treasury Department plans to purchase 260 million USD worth of ENA tokens," sparking heated discussions in the market. This article will detail the event and ENA's recent performance, analyze its potential impact on the Ethena project and the market, and assess the current status of the project.

StablecoinX Completes Financing and Seeks Nasdaq Listing

On the evening of July 21, Ethena announced that its subsidiary StablecoinX has reached a merger agreement with TLGY Acquisition Corp, intending to go public through a reverse merger and plans to raise approximately 360 million USD. Among this, the Ethena Foundation subscribed for 60 million USD, with other institutional investors including Dragonfly, Pantera Capital, Galaxy Digital, Wintermute, Polychain, and Haun Ventures.

This financing is conducted in the form of PIPE (Private Investment in Public Equity), with 260 million USD in cash and 100 million USD in discounted locked ENA tokens. According to the announcement, these funds will be used to establish a long-term ENA treasury, with the new company StablecoinX planning to invest about 5 million USD daily to purchase ENA tokens in the open market, aiming to accumulate approximately 260 million USD worth of ENA tokens over the next six weeks, accounting for about 8% of the current circulating supply.

StablecoinX will not only invest in ENA but also plans to operate technology infrastructure related to the Ethena ecosystem, such as running validator nodes and staking services. After the completion of the financing, StablecoinX will be listed on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol "USDE," while the Ethena Foundation will hold the majority of voting shares.

The Ethena team emphasized that these tokens will be locked long-term and held permanently, with the Ethena Foundation retaining the right to veto any sales, aiming to support the ecosystem through continuous accumulation and increase the per-share ENA holdings.

Recent Price Performance of ENA

Before the announcement of StablecoinX, the ENA token had already begun to rise rapidly. On July 20 (Sunday), the overall market rose, driving up funding rates, with mainstream assets like ETH and SOL increasing, and the previously sluggish Ethena also saw capital inflow. On that day, ENA surged by 20%, breaking through the 0.5 USDT mark, reaching its highest point since February this year. On the same day, Ethena's "synthetic dollar" stablecoin USDe attracted about 750 million USD in net inflows, with the supply nearing a historical high of 6.1 billion. During this market rally, Ethena's capital arbitrage strategy began to profit, causing sUSDe's annualized interest rate to reach 10%, significantly exceeding traditional money market funds.

Potential Impact on the Ethena Project

The preparation and listing plan of StablecoinX is of great significance to the Ethena project itself.

Firstly, this is another attempt by a DeFi project to actively connect with traditional capital markets, similar to the previous listings of Circle (USDC) and Ripple, which show that the stablecoin sector is receiving high attention from institutions. Ethena is providing traditional stock market investors with exposure to its "growth story" through a public company model, which is seen as a signal of integration with traditional finance (TradFi). As the founder of Ethena stated, this transaction provides stock market investors with a pure investment target themed around "digital dollars."

Secondly, from the perspective of supply and demand for funds, StablecoinX's plan to significantly increase its holdings of ENA and lock them long-term means that a strong buyer has entered the project ecosystem. The daily purchase plan of 5 million USD over the next few weeks, along with a total procurement effort of 360 million USD in cash and locked tokens, will significantly raise the demand for ENA. This model, similar to a "Bitcoin treasury" (drawing on the logic of Strategy holding BTC), may provide long-term value support for ENA.

Some believe that this stable capital allocation strategy can bring substantial user capital demand and, to some extent, raise the long-term bottom value of the token. However, some analyses point out that this capital flow does not directly change the economic model of the Ethena project: Ethena's core mechanism remains that users mint USDe by collateralizing crypto assets and execute hedging strategies to generate profits. The StablecoinX purchase plan will only increase market demand but will not change the operational logic of the Ethena protocol, so whether the project's "fundamentals" have changed remains to be seen. In the long run, this effectively adds a stable "bullish ENA" capital party to the project, but if the basic arbitrage model encounters changes (such as a decline in funding rates), the project's return capability still needs to be tested.

Thirdly, the macro regulatory environment is also changing. Recently, the U.S. passed several stablecoin regulatory laws, including the GENIUS Act. The GENIUS Act requires stablecoin issuances to have comprehensive asset backing (cash or government bonds) and strengthens regulation, prohibiting the issuance of dividend-like income-generating stablecoins, reflecting that the stablecoin market is under dual scrutiny from U.S. regulators and traditional finance.

For Ethena, its USDe is classified as a "crypto-collateralized synthetic dollar," which may face compliance pressure under the new regulatory framework. If Ethena fully complies with U.S. stablecoin laws, it may need to adjust its hedging strategy. However, the Ethena team's current position is that USDe is not a stablecoin product for payment purposes, but more like a synthetic asset tool, thus believing it is not directly governed by the new legislation. In summary, the listing and financing of StablecoinX are unfolding against the backdrop of an increasingly clear compliance environment, which may introduce more compliance considerations for Ethena, but also enhances the project's visibility and legitimacy in mature markets.

Assessment of the Current Status of the Ethena Project

Overall, Ethena is currently in a phase of rapid development. Firstly, the recovery of funding rates has indeed enhanced the attractiveness of USDe. Recently, Ethena's stablecoin strategy, hedged against assets like BTC, ETH, and SOL, has been able to offer users nearly 10% annualized returns, far exceeding traditional dollar fund levels. This has attracted a large influx of capital, with net minting amounting to about 750 million USD last week, bringing USDe's supply close to historical highs.

Secondly, regulatory and policy trends are worth noting. The U.S. has signed the GENIUS stablecoin act, bringing stablecoin issuance under Federal Reserve regulation and requiring 100% asset backing. This has had a profound impact on currently mainstream stablecoins (such as USDC and USDT). Ethena's USDe is a crypto-asset collateralized stablecoin, which may need to adjust or obtain exemptions according to the new act.

As mentioned earlier, Ethena is in contact with regulators to seek recognition of its synthetic dollar attributes, so it is not directly constrained by the new regulations. However, if Ethena wants to offer USDe to U.S. investors in the future, it may be required to increase its fiat or government bond reserve support. In short, the uncertainty of regulation poses certain challenges for the project, especially regarding the compliance pressure that may arise from its high-yield model.

Finally, the project has made progress in integrating with traditional assets. For example, Ethena has launched USDtb (a stablecoin backed by fiat or existing institutional assets) and has allocated some capital to a dollar fund managed by BlackRock. These initiatives have enhanced the product's compliance and institutional recognition to some extent. Additionally, Ethena's recent integration with the Telegram wallet and the launch of lending strategies have also added stickiness to its ecosystem. Nevertheless, Ethena remains a relatively young DeFi protocol, and achieving long-term stable growth will still require facing multiple challenges such as compliance, competition, and market volatility.

In conclusion, the completion of financing and the launch of the ENA treasury plan by StablecoinX have brought positive impacts to the Ethena project: in the short term, it has boosted the token price and provided appreciation expectations for holders. In the long run, this marks Ethena's attempt to connect its digital dollar theme with traditional capital markets, opening new financing and distribution channels. However, this move has not fundamentally changed Ethena's asset and revenue model, as its stablecoin operations still rely on the logic of crypto collateral hedging.

Therefore, whether the project's fundamentals have been "changed" remains difficult to conclude: the capital flow and listing support brought by StablecoinX are undoubtedly a significant benefit, but whether Ethena can continue to prove the robustness of its high-yield mechanism and whether it can cope with regulatory changes still requires time and further observation.

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