Everyone is dreaming of catching up with the next Dogecoin, but they don't realize that the next Dogecoin is actually Bitcoin.

Author: Udi Wertheimer

Translation: Deep Tide TechFlow

I believe Bitcoin is entering a generational development phase that we have never seen before.

I have been trying to convince people in the cryptocurrency circle. But they don't understand.

I finally found an example they can understand.

Please read this article in full. It might help your family retire.

If my judgment is correct, Bitcoin is now in the final stage of a generational rotation.

Many (if not most) of the old whales have exited this asset. They sold at what they thought was the peak (around $100,000) and were replaced by new holders.

This rotation is very rare and difficult to achieve. But once successful — I believe it has already succeeded — a previously unimaginable multiple increase will follow.

But you don't have to imagine what that would look like. Because it turns out this has happened before.

The Revelation of Dogecoin

Today, Dogecoin is known as the king of Memecoins, the meme that everyone dreams of replicating. But few understand what actually happened, how Dogecoin gained its legendary meme status, and how unimaginable the whole process was.

Since Dogecoin was created in 2013, it has been seen as a joke in the crypto circle. Experienced altcoin traders believed the way to play Dogecoin was to accumulate for a few months during quiet periods, then sell to newcomers at 5-10 times the profit whenever they appeared every few years, and then start accumulating again during the next quiet period. This cycle repeated itself.

They went through multiple cycles, buying and selling Dogecoin for less than a penny, making money from newcomers.

But on April 2, 2019, something crazy happened.

Elon Musk, the celebrity CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, tweeted: "Dogecoin might be my favorite cryptocurrency. It's pretty cool."

In the wake of this message, Dogecoin surged 50%, rising from 0.24 cents to 0.36 cents (note that it's cents, not dollars).

A 1.5 times increase in a day is quite impressive, right?

Wrong. This was nothing. Dogecoin was about to rise another 200 times from there, nearly surpassing Ethereum.

But in July 2019, existing Dogecoin holders could not imagine such a future. Dogecoin rose from $0.0025 to nearly $1 in just a few years?? Ridiculous. Impossible.

This was a huge event; cryptocurrency natives thought they knew it was a big deal, but they severely underestimated it.

So after the 50% rise, they prayed to Satoshi Nakamoto, thanking him for getting Elon Musk to promote Dogecoin, and then they started selling.

For a brief time, their choice was right.

Old holders sold during most of the year whenever there was a rise, and they felt pretty good about themselves as Dogecoin continually failed to break through.

But beneath the surface, something was happening. After the outbreak of COVID-19, the public learned they could sit at home and try to short GME on Robinhood, and some noticed that Robinhood also offered cryptocurrency trading.

As early as 2020, Robinhood only listed 7 cryptocurrencies: the old generation BTC, the techie ETH, and some embarrassing coins like BCH and ETC. The only interesting and cool coin on Robinhood was DOGE.

A massive army of Robinhood meme traders saw this opportunity and initiated the popular TikTok trend known as the "Dogecoin Challenge."

They encouraged users to share screenshots of their Robinhood accounts showing the Dogecoin they purchased. This trend exploded. Everyone was buying.

Just some TikTok users, nothing to worry about…

But crypto Twitter didn't notice.

In 2020, cryptocurrency natives hardly paid attention to Robinhood or TikTok. Most old Dogecoin holders were completely unaware of what was happening. So whenever the price rose a little, they sold.

For them, Dogecoin was just a stupid joke; you sell when it rises and buy when it falls to make some extra cash.

If you look at the charts, you would believe this. For most of 2020, the price didn't fluctuate much. Everyone was trained to believe, "When Elon tweets, we only go up 20%," because old holders were always there selling and pushing the price down.

They had no faith.

But new holders did have confidence.

Beneath the surface, the young TikTok users were buying in.

The crypto Twitter circle was largely in the dark. The charts made them believe nothing was happening.

Until January 2021, when Dogecoin sellers finally ran out of tokens.

In just two weeks, Dogecoin's price skyrocketed from $0.008 to $0.08, a tenfold increase in two weeks, with its market cap soaring from $1 billion to $10 billion.

People on the timeline went crazy. Group chats exploded. Old whales were calling each other in the middle of the night. Did you see this????

"Did you see this?!?!" The first cognitive collapse of Dogecoin.

It's hard to express how big of a cognitive shock this was. Most cryptocurrency natives completely collapsed because almost everyone had owned Dogecoin at some point in the past 7 years, and almost everyone had sold it. They hardly paid attention to the TikTok trend and had no idea this wave had been brewing for months.

But their biggest mistake was yet to come.

Eventually realizing that the entire retail world had fallen in love with Dogecoin, some savvy cryptocurrency traders began to buy back in. There were many posts on the timeline bragging about how they had quickly doubled their Dogecoin. They all felt very proud of themselves.

But none of them realized that this entire massive movement was just a warm-up.

Their minds were still stuck on the old Dogecoin price. Dogecoin was a coin worth less than a penny. Everyone knew that. If it briefly exceeded one cent, it was a bubble, and we used it to accumulate more stablecoins and then leave.

But new holders had no idea about the old prices.

The young people from TikTok and Robinhood had no knowledge of the years of pain endured by old Dogecoin holders. In fact, when they zoomed out on the Robinhood chart, they couldn't even see the historical price trends. For them, it was a blank slate, and "Dogecoin to one dollar" seemed completely reasonable.

Thus, as old holders rotated out, new holders had no concept of the old low prices, and after convincing CT that the market was over between February and April, Dogecoin exploded again, surging another tenfold to reach an ultimate peak of about $0.70.

What happens when the sellers run out of tokens. Illustrated.

This was 200 times higher than the peak of the first Elon wave in 2019. In just 2 years. TikTok users cashed out big, and CT missed the entire rally. The best CT traders might have locked in 3 times the profit in the middle (and ensured they bragged about it on the timeline for months).

The same thing is happening to Bitcoin today.

Admittedly, today's Bitcoin is much larger than Dogecoin was back then. But there are also more participants. What we have are not just Robinhood retail traders and TikTok users, but institutions, ETFs, and Bitcoin fund management companies like MSTR. What we have is not Elon promoting Dogecoin (by the way, he wasn't as famous in 2019 as he is now), but the president of the free world promoting Bitcoin. Perhaps we have even — or will soon have — countries buying Bitcoin.

Institutions have been frantically buying Bitcoin from old holders: those cryptocurrency natives who are not paying attention. Cryptocurrency natives do not understand how traditional capital markets work. In fact, they mock them. They don't want to know. So they completely missed out, continuing to sell at around $100,000, which seems ridiculous to them.

But new buyers don't even see that number. $IBIT, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF, is priced at about $70. Its chart starts from the ETF listing date (January 2024), when the price was $30. It has only risen $40! That's nothing, why isn't it $700?

This is the chart IBIT holders see.

And Bitcoin treasury companies like Saylor's MSTR don't even look at the unit price of the underlying asset. They measure purchases in dollar value. "Last week we deployed $500 million." They are completely insensitive to the price of Bitcoin. They just put in as many dollars as possible. (By the way, MSTR is likely to continue doing this at an increasingly rapid pace. If you're sitting there waiting for Saylor to blow up, it means you don't understand what's happening. Do your research. This won't happen in the short term.)

CT and cryptocurrency natives think that after the ETF approval and Trump's victory, Bitcoin's price rose from $50,000 to $100,000, and that was the entire trend. I mean, it stopped rising!

But the fact is, it just takes time to rotate the asset out of old holders. The real rally hasn't even started yet.

Look Around

Most old Bitcoin extremists are nowhere to be found. Where are they? Have they disappeared?

Most of them have sold. They bought houses and boats and then left.

Where are the cryptocurrency investors? They switched to ETH and then wrote articles about flipping and staking yields.

Where are the young speculators? They have never owned Bitcoin; they are all trading worthless air memecoins. Dreaming of catching up with the next Dogecoin, yet they don't realize that the next Dogecoin is actually Bitcoin.

No one is left. Wall Street has bought up everyone's Bitcoin. And they are just getting started.

So what happens next?

When you read this, you are likely unwilling to believe it. You probably have a serious lack of understanding about Bitcoin. You know I have correctly predicted Bitcoin at every step, every day, for months, which is why you are reluctantly reading this article, but you still don't want to believe it.

So if we look back at the story of Dogecoin, we are now at the point after Elon’s first tweet, after the TikTok "Dogecoin Challenge," but before the first tenfold increase in January 2021.

In other words, Bitcoin's point is after the ETF, after Saylor's acceleration, after Trump's inauguration, and other events. But its point is also before anyone believes "this time it’s really different," before anyone realizes "the sellers have run out of BTC."

Bitcoin is larger, so we may not see a tenfold increase immediately, but as I said before, I am very confident that we will see $400,000 by the end of this year. This target may be too conservative.

You still think this is ridiculous. But the old holders are out. We have no reason not to have rapid multiple increases again.

And this is just the first wave of the rally. I believe that just like DOGE, after the first cognitive collapse, there will be a larger, faster, and more violent cognitive collapse. After the first $400,000 target, there will be another tenfold or more cognitive collapse. This will happen when the whole world starts to believe (remember when every young person in the world was talking about Dogecoin for a month?). But I don’t want to talk too much about that now. That will be the second cognitive collapse. That will be a later matter.

We are entering the first cognitive collapse.

What does this mean for you?

First, you can actually retire on 1 Bitcoin. If you have the chance to get 1 Bitcoin, do it now. Put it aside and forget about it. I’m not sure you will have such an opportunity again.

Second, after you buy your first Bitcoin, keep buying Bitcoin. Keep adding. This is what Wall Street is doing. Do you really think you are smarter than Wall Street? They have already outpaced you for the past two years.

Third, now is not the time to wait for prices to drop. Who will sell? The old holders are out. They can't sell the coins to you; they have already sold them.

Oh, and there’s a fourth…

The Fate of Altcoins

Your altcoins are done for. There will be some standout coins everywhere, and if you really pay attention, maybe you will catch them. Quick in and out, thanks for the scam. But most altcoins will not be able to keep up with the massive inflow into Bitcoin.

This won't happen immediately. But if Bitcoin rises 50 to 100 times in a relatively short period, no currency can keep up, not even those supported by revenue, unless the revenue also grows 50 times, which I think is possible for early enterprises. So if you really want to, you can still bet on early enterprises.

Interestingly, some large memecoins dream of replicating Dogecoin's success without understanding the true reasons for its success. They think that if they replicate some elements, like listing on Robinhood (but this time with 500 other tokens) or getting Elon to mention it (but that’s no longer cool; he’s been doing that), or making some TikTok videos (far from the zeitgeist of the COVID era), they will succeed. But these pieces just don’t match. It’s clear that Bitcoin is a better story.

And the biggest loser of this cycle may be Ethereum. MSTR's market cap may surpass Ethereum's market cap. Ethereum will truly fulfill the prophecy: "There is no second best," as it will be displaced from the second position by MSTR. Ethereum holders are also starting to build treasury companies, which is cute, but they won't be able to keep up in this cycle.

You should be able to easily see the problem; the biggest Ethereum bulls are targeting a pathetic $4,000 goal on the timeline, while embarrassing figures like sassal and eric.eth are still posting garbage content every day. The problem is that the old holders still exist. So yes, ETH will perform well here and there, but only in brief bursts, and overall, ETH/BTC will continue to set lower highs as old holders continue to sell off at every small rise.

If Lubin, Tom Lee, and their friends continue to buy in for years, then maybe in the next cycle Ethereum can finally have a real rally. I don’t think that will happen in this cycle.

Wall Street is buying all the Bitcoin

Buy some Bitcoin before it gets divided up.

Thank you for your attention to this matter!

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