Author: Climber, CryptoPulseLabs

In the past few years, if one were to pick the person on Wall Street who understands how to portray Ethereum as a macro asset, Tom Lee would surely top the list.

For many traditional financial investors, he is the strategist who repeatedly emphasizes in the media that "U.S. stocks will rise, Bitcoin will rise, Ethereum will rise"; while for participants in the crypto market, he functions more like an alternative narrative accelerator. Whenever the market is in a state of hesitation, observation, or pessimism, he tends to use more intense language and more aggressive target prices to push Bitcoin and Ethereum back into the spotlight of mainstream finance.

However, Tom Lee's influence did not emerge out of nowhere. He did not start from the crypto space, nor did he begin by generating buzz on social media; rather, he is a typical Wall Street researcher. Having worked for a long time in investment banks and research institutions, with expertise in macro cycles, capital flows, and valuation models, he was already a frequent guest in mainstream financial media before entering the crypto field. It is this combination of traditional financial background and belief in crypto assets that makes him one of the few people who can be listened to by both sides.

1. Wall Street Background: The Standard Path from Researcher to Strategist

Tom Lee's career starting point is not mysterious; he took a very standard Wall Street route: research, strategy, macro analysis, client communication.

The difference is that many strategists become cautious in the later stages of their careers, while Tom Lee's style is exactly the opposite— the later it gets, the more he dares to express clear directions, and even to make forecasts into a shareable product.

In his early years, Tom Lee worked at several financial institutions in the United States, the most significant experience being as the Chief Equity Strategist at J.P. Morgan.

During that time, he accumulated two key skills: first, how to transform complex macro variables, such as interest rates, inflation, dollars, credit spreads, corporate earnings, etc., into actionable investment views; second, how to communicate a trend clearly in front of institutional clients and get them to be willing to buy it.

Such experience is crucial because the crypto market is inherently a narrative-driven market, where prices are often not driven by financial statements but are jointly driven by macro expectations, capital structures, and risk preferences. Tom Lee's strength precisely lies in translating macro language into market language.

Therefore, the underlying logic of Tom Lee's fame is not that he is a KOL in the crypto space, but rather that he is a macro storyteller.

Tom Lee was widely recognized by the market after he left the traditional investment banking system. Around 2014, he co-founded Fundstrat Global Advisors with partners, usually referred to as Fundstrat.

This is an independent research institution that operates between macro research, investment strategy, and market consulting, serving not only institutional funds but also a broader range of market investors.

The establishment of Fundstrat itself reflects a change of an era, as Wall Street's research is shifting from traditional investment banking systems to independent research institutions, with strategists no longer serving only investment banking clients, but directly presenting views to the market.

It was during this phase that Tom Lee gradually formed his personal brand. His views are sufficiently distinctive, his logic sufficiently macro, and his expression suitably suited for dissemination.

In the early research of Fundstrat, his main battlefield remained the U.S. stock market. Tom Lee's long-term bullish stance on the U.S. stock market is very firm; he repeatedly emphasizes that the market will reward long-term holders and provides clear judgments at many key nodes.

Though his predictions are not always accurate, he has an advantage in his ability to break down the market into an understandable framework rather than simply making price predictions.

2. Turning to Crypto: One of the "Wall Streetizing" Drivers of Bitcoin and Ethereum Narratives

Tom Lee's role in the crypto market can be summarized in one sentence: he is one of the people who brought Bitcoin into the Wall Street narrative system.

Many mistakenly believe that traditional finance people enter the crypto market because they see short-term windfalls. However, Tom Lee's logic is more inclined towards macro asset allocation.

He views Bitcoin as a new type of risk asset and a tool for hedging against uncertainties in the currency system. Especially during phases of global monetary easing and excess liquidity in dollars, he often analyzes Bitcoin alongside gold and U.S. tech stocks within the same framework.

One of his most frequently quoted views is that Bitcoin's price will be long-term influenced by global liquidity and the degree of institutional capital entering the market, rather than solely dictated by retail sentiment. In other words, he is discussing asset pricing logic rather than the gaming mechanics of the crypto space.

For instance, during the Bitcoin bull market in 2017, Tom Lee's public views started appearing frequently in mainstream financial media. His bullish stance on Bitcoin was very aggressive, and he provided numerous high-target price predictions.

This style is certainly not rare in the crypto space, but it is quite uncommon among Wall Street strategists. Because of this, he quickly became a favorite among media, embodying both the authority of traditional finance and the exaggerated narratives of the crypto space.

However, those who are always bullish will always face skepticism. Whether during the downturns in the crypto market or the continued decline of Ethereum.

The larger Tom Lee's fame grows, the more controversies arise. Especially during crypto bear markets in 2018 and 2022, his long-term bullish stance has often been mocked by the market. On social media, he is frequently labeled as "eternally bullish" and "great prediction king of market peaks."

But if you place his role back into the larger narrative, these controversies are actually quite normal. Tom Lee is not a short-term trader; he is more like a macro narrative analyst. His job is not to precisely predict the price on a specific day but to provide the market with a long-term framework.

He frequently emphasizes core logics such as Bitcoin's scarcity and long-term supply-demand structure, the impact of global monetary policy cycles on risk assets, valuation re-pricing driven by institutional capital ingress, and the logic of alternative assets when the dollar weakens and inflation expectations rise...

These logics are not novel, but Tom Lee's strength lies in his ability to articulate these logics in a way that sounds very much like Wall Street, and is suitable for television dissemination.

In other words, his predictions may be wrong, but his narratives will be remembered.

3. ETH— The Underlying Asset of On-Chain Finance in Tom Lee's Perspective

Many people are optimistic about ETH because of technology, ecology, developers, L2, etc. But Tom Lee's logic for being bullish on ETH is more about finance; he is using a valuation approach similar to traditional assets to understand Ethereum.

In traditional finance, the dollar is the settlement currency, cash is core in U.S. stocks, and traffic is the underlying resource on the internet.

From Tom Lee's perspective, Ethereum plays a role similar to a "settlement layer on-chain."

You will find that many applications, such as stablecoin on-chain trading, RWA, on-chain lending, fundamentally require a credible settlement layer. Although many chains are competing for this position, Ethereum maintains the combination advantage of "the strongest security, the strongest ecology, and the strongest institutional recognition" over the long term.

For Tom Lee, ETH is not a project token, but rather a core asset of foundational financial infrastructure. As long as on-chain finance continues to develop, the value capture of ETH has a long-term basis.

At the same time, ETH resembles a production-type asset rather than purely a speculative asset; this is one of the key points for Tom Lee's optimism about ETH.

The value logic of Bitcoin is closer to digital gold: scarce, inflation-resistant, and a store of value.

In contrast, the value logic of ETH is more akin to a productive asset, such as network transaction fees, which may decrease supply through a burn mechanism; staking enables ETH to possess properties similar to "yield"; a thriving ecosystem may boost on-chain activity, thereby increasing demand for ETH...

This structure renders ETH in his view more like an asset with intrinsic cash flow, akin to some new form of internet infrastructure stock.

As the market enters an institutional phase, institutions often prefer assets that can explain the value capture path, rather than those reliant solely on communal consensus for appreciation.

Additionally, ETH has a clearer supply-demand reinforcement mechanism, i.e., deflation and staking.

After Ethereum transitioned to PoS, two very important mechanisms emerged: staking reduces circulating supply (locking up), while burning reduces total supply (deflation). This means that as long as Ethereum's network activity remains at a certain level, the supply-demand relationship for ETH may tend to be tight over the long term.

This is rarely seen in traditional assets since stocks can be repurchased, but buybacks require company profits. While gold supply is stable but cannot be reduced. However, ETH's supply will dynamically change with network activity. This mechanism grants ETH what he sees as a self-reinforcing economic model.

Lastly, and most importantly, ETH is the core asset under the compliant narrative, which makes it easier for institutions to accept ETH.

Tom Lee emphasized early on that the crypto market will ultimately head toward institutionalization and regulation. After the emergence of ETFs, crypto assets started to enter the traditional finance asset allocation system.

For institutions, Bitcoin is the easiest to understand because its narrative is straightforward. In contrast, once ETH is included within a compliant framework, its allure will rapidly increase, as it becomes not just a store of value but the foundational asset of the on-chain economy.

The core preferences of institutions typically involve explainable sources of value, sustainable demand, deeper market maturity, and clearer regulatory boundaries. ETH is progressively meeting these conditions, which is also the point Tom Lee repeatedly emphasizes. As the crypto market enters the next phase, the valuation of ETH will increasingly resemble traditional assets rather than purely speculative products.

Conclusion

Therefore, Tom Lee's core is not merely bullishness, but understanding cycles. He is not a KOL in the sense of the crypto community who merely shouts predictions; rather, he is a strategist who studies crypto assets within a macro framework. His long-term bullishness stems from his understanding of risk asset cycles, and his preference for ETH arises from his judgment on the foundational assets of on-chain finance.

In his view, Bitcoin is more like digital gold, acting as a barometer of macro liquidity and risk appetite. Meanwhile, Ethereum resembles the core asset of the on-chain financial system and is a direct beneficiary of future on-chain economic expansion.

Thus, in a noisy market, Tom Lee offers a way of thinking that is closer to institutions and long-termism. This approach is precisely what many ordinary investors lack the most.

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