The Song of Ice and Fire on Both Sides of the Pacific

Written by: ChandlerZ, Foresight News

On both sides of the Pacific, a narrative about the future of stablecoins is unfolding in distinctly different forms.

On one side is the cautious layout of industry giants. Recently, the surge in stablecoins in mainland China has continued to rise. The Governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, mentioned stablecoins for the first time at the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, stating that emerging technologies such as blockchain and distributed ledgers are driving the robust development of central bank digital currencies and stablecoins, achieving payment upon settlement, fundamentally reshaping the traditional payment system, significantly shortening the cross-border payment chain, while also posing significant challenges to financial regulation. In Hong Kong, the "Stablecoin Bill" is set to officially take effect on August 1. On the eve of the licensing in Hong Kong, many banks, tech giants, and fintech companies are accelerating their entry into the crypto market, frequently announcing plans to apply for stablecoin licenses:

• On June 12, Ant Group's two companies, Ant International and Ant Digital, announced the initiation of stablecoin license applications. Subsequently, relevant individuals indicated that Lianlian Digital is also actively exploring the possibility of applying for relevant licenses in the aforementioned regions. Currently, Lianlian Digital has established a dedicated team responsible for advancing stablecoin-related projects and conducting use case studies.
• On June 16, Yutai Logistics Technology announced that it is actively researching relevant regulatory details and plans to apply for a stablecoin issuance license after the Hong Kong stablecoin regulations take effect. The company plans to launch its own stablecoin "RHKD" and also plans to issue a digital token "RBTC," which will be pegged to Bitcoin as the underlying asset. Customers can exchange "RBTC" for Hong Kong dollars or US dollars. The company expects that the token will be backed by 100% Bitcoin as reserves (achieving a 1:1 Bitcoin exchange).
• On June 17, Liu Qiangdong, Chairman of JD Group, stated that JD hopes to apply for stablecoin licenses in all major currency countries globally, and then achieve foreign exchange between global enterprises through the stablecoin license, reducing cross-border payment costs by 90% and increasing efficiency to within 10 seconds. At the same time, JD expects to obtain the license in the first quarter of this year and simultaneously launch the JD stablecoin.
• On June 18, the A-share listed company Small Commodity City stated, "The company operates the world's largest small commodity trading market, naturally possessing a vast and high-frequency cross-border trade settlement scenario. Innovative payment tools such as stablecoins have the potential to provide more efficient and low-cost cross-border payment solutions for global customers, especially small and micro enterprises, aligning with our mission to serve real trade. We welcome and support Hong Kong's positive progress in the regulatory framework for stablecoins, and our cross-border payment platform 'Yiwu Pay' will continue to monitor the relevant regulatory process and will actively assess and submit relevant applications as soon as the regulations are clarified and the path is smooth."

According to a report by Delphi Digital, the supply of stablecoins in the market has exceeded $250 billion for the first time. Among them, yield-bearing stablecoins have grown rapidly, with Ethena reaching nearly $6 billion since its launch; Tether and Circle still dominate the market, accounting for a total of 86% of the circulating supply; the diversity of issuers has increased, with more than ten stablecoins having a circulation of over $100 million; over $120 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds are locked in stablecoins, forming a liquidity pool outside the traditional market.

These cases not only reflect the strategic choices of the two regions but also reveal two parallel development models in the global stablecoin arena. A core question thus emerges: will it be the legislative-driven grand narrative or the industry-driven scenario penetration that ultimately dominates this structural transformation concerning the future digital financial infrastructure?

Two Paths: Top-Down Mainstream Compliance vs. Bottom-Up Industry Penetration

The different development paths exhibited by stablecoins in the U.S. and Hong Kong are rooted in their distinct market environments and the strategic starting points of participants. Taking Circle and JD Coin Chain as examples, the former represents a top-down, mainstream compliance approach, while the latter embodies a bottom-up, industry-driven breakthrough.

The U.S. path represented by Circle is a mainstream strategy aimed at gaining on-chain discourse power. As a "Crypto Native," Circle's long-term strategic goal has always been clear: to shed the marginal label of the crypto world and enter the core of the traditional financial system. However, this process has not been smooth. Circle once focused on going public in the traditional financial market but saw its SPAC merger plan falter in 2022 due to significant uncertainties in the market environment and regulation. This major setback precisely confirms that in the U.S., without a clear policy framework, stablecoins are difficult to be accepted by the mainstream. The fundamental turning point lies in the clarification of the macro policy environment in the U.S., especially with the promotion of crypto-friendly policy directions and regulatory progress such as the "GENIUS Act," which paved the way for Circle's eventual entry into the capital market.

In stark contrast is the Hong Kong path represented by JD Coin Chain, which is based on a new type of breakthrough in the B-end. JD Coin Chain Technology (Hong Kong) was registered in Hong Kong in March 2024. In July, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced the list of participants in the stablecoin issuer "sandbox," which includes JD Coin Chain. According to its official website, JD will issue a cryptocurrency stablecoin pegged 1:1 to the Hong Kong dollar. The JD stablecoin is a stablecoin based on a public chain and pegged 1:1 to the Hong Kong dollar (HKD), which will be issued on a public blockchain, with reserves consisting of highly liquid and trustworthy assets securely stored in independent accounts of licensed financial institutions, and the integrity of the reserves will be strictly verified through regular disclosures and audit reports. JD is not a newcomer in the payment field, but in the previous round of the C-end mobile payment war, it failed to establish an independent payment ecosystem comparable to Alibaba and Tencent. Therefore, JD's entry into stablecoins is not a chase of the old battlefield but a natural extension based on JD Group's advantages in technology and supply chain. It chooses to avoid the already saturated C-end retail payment and directly cut into the B-end cross-border trade and supply chain finance, where it has structural advantages. The logic starting point of this path is not to seek comprehensive liberalization through top-level legislation but to utilize the specific institutional space provided by Hong Kong as an international financial center and regulatory sandbox to solve specific business problems.

Two Strategies: New B-End Battlefield vs. On-Chain Currency Track

Different starting points determine two distinctly different market strategies.

In a recent interview, Liu Peng, CEO of JD Coin Chain Technology, stated that as of early June 2025, the company has mainly conducted tests on the Hong Kong dollar stablecoin, and will soon conduct tests on other fiat currency stablecoins. Based on market demand, it is expected that both stablecoins will be issued simultaneously. Unlike the first phase, which mainly tested product functionality and technical details, the second phase focuses on testing the use of stablecoins in three practical scenarios: cross-border payments, investment transactions, and retail payments.

In the cross-border payment scenario, JD Coin Chain plans to expand its user base through both direct customer acquisition and indirect customer acquisition (e.g., collaborating with compliant wholesalers). In the investment transaction scenario, it is currently negotiating cooperation with global compliant exchanges to launch JD stablecoin in different regions. In retail, the first landing will be JD Global Sale's Hong Kong and Macau site, where users can be the first to use stablecoins for shopping in JD's self-operated e-commerce scenarios.

JD's strategy can be seen as a surgical tactic, with the core being a deep focus on the B-end, where scenarios reign supreme. Liu Peng clearly pointed out that the target users of JD stablecoin are not crypto investors but a large number of real enterprises and cross-border trade participants. Its core value proposition is not speculation but solving the long-standing pain points of high costs, low efficiency, and lack of transparency in traditional cross-border payments through blockchain technology. It aims to tailor payment solutions for JD Global Sale, international logistics, and other inherent ecosystems.

In contrast, Circle's strategy is to seize the protocol high ground, with standards reigning supreme. Its ultimate goal, as noted by Bernstein analysts, is to evolve into the currency track of the internet. This means that what Circle pursues is not to solve a specific scenario's problem but to become a universal, underlying digital cash protocol. By establishing its legal status through legislation, Circle hopes that USDC can be seamlessly integrated by all banks, payment companies, fintech platforms, and commercial applications. This is a typical horizontal platformization, protocol-driven logic aimed at maximizing network effects by establishing foundational standards, thereby occupying an indispensable core position in the global digital financial system.

These two strategies point to two different commercial outcomes.

JD's future vision is first to build a highly closed-loop on-chain trade empire. By integrating stablecoin payments with its international logistics, overseas warehousing, order systems, and other data flows, it theoretically can achieve an unprecedented, efficient, and transparent global supply chain financial ecosystem. However, its more strategically valuable vision points to an offshore RMB stablecoin. Leveraging Hong Kong's institutional advantages as the world's largest offshore RMB hub, once policy permission is obtained, issuing a CNH stablecoin will not only bring JD immense commercial imagination but also provide it with the opportunity to play a key role in the internationalization of the RMB as a financial infrastructure.

Circle's ultimate outcome is closely tied to consolidating the dollar's hegemonic position in the global digital economy. Its goal is to become the de facto private sector version of the digital dollar, becoming a core component of the new generation of financial infrastructure. However, it is worth noting that amid the market's frenzy, Cathie Wood's Ark Invest has begun to choose to cash out as CRCL stock prices hit new highs. According to trading disclosures, ARK sold a total of 642,766 shares of Circle stock through its three core funds within two days, totaling approximately $96.5 million, accounting for 14% of its initial position. Currently, another major institutional shareholder, BlackRock, has not reported any reductions, while the reductions by Circle's internal executive team are part of a routine plan following the IPO as per the prospectus.

This does not entirely negate Circle's long-term value, but it at least suggests that in the eyes of the most optimistic investors, the stock price may have fully or even excessively reflected policy benefits in the short term, necessitating tactical reductions to manage risk exposure. After the legislation passes, the real commercial landing and market competition challenges may just be beginning.

Different Paths to the Same Destination? A Currency War Defining the Future

Overall, JD and Circle represent two paradigms of stablecoin development. JD's model is pragmatic, starting from solving specific business problems, with the advantage of having a solid business foundation and clear application scenarios. Circle's model is idealistic, starting from constructing a grand financial vision, with the advantage of obtaining leading legislative support and strong capital backing.

Of course, there are still many issues to be resolved: can the B-end barriers built around the industry in JD's model effectively resist the top-down dimensionality reduction attacks from general protocols like Circle? And must Circle's grand narrative, when truly delving into the real economy, also tackle specific industry application scenarios one by one, just like JD?

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