In the medium term (3-12 months), liquidity is gradually improving, but market risk appetite faces significant uncertainty, with both opportunities and challenges in the Bitcoin market.
The global macroeconomic environment is undergoing profound adjustments, and the cryptocurrency market, particularly the price fluctuations of Bitcoin, is increasingly influenced by the complexities of the macro environment.
Recently, Huobi HTX's research institution, HTX Research, released the latest research report titled “Macroeconomic New Changes and Bitcoin Outlook: In-depth Insights on Liquidity, Risk Appetite, Policy Games, and Investment Strategies”, which comprehensively analyzes the impact of the global macroeconomic environment on the Bitcoin market, providing investors with a clear market outlook and investment guidance.
Bitcoin Market Outlook in the Macroeconomic Environment: Liquidity and Market Risk Appetite
Currently, the global macro environment is complex and volatile, with factors such as the cooling of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, ongoing quantitative tightening (QT), the return of funds to the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA), and expectations of interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, collectively leading to tighter short-term liquidity. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell insists on a "data-first" approach, and the strong U.S. job market (April non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000, unemployment rate at 4.2%) along with potential inflationary impacts from tariffs (CPI may return to over 3% in the third quarter) have reduced the expectation of interest rate cuts from three to two (September and December) this year, limiting the upward space for risk assets like Bitcoin. Additionally, the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes and the unwinding of yen carry trades further tighten global liquidity. In the short term (next 1-3 months), market liquidity expectations are tight, and the upward space for risk assets like Bitcoin may be limited, but optimistic sentiment regarding risk appetite is expected to persist in the short term, while remaining vigilant about technical corrections and volatility from unexpected news.
In the medium term (3-12 months), liquidity is gradually improving, but market risk appetite faces significant uncertainty, with both opportunities and challenges in the Bitcoin market. If the Federal Reserve initiates interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025 and ends QT, combined with coordinated easing policies from global central banks, liquidity is expected to marginally improve, providing a rebound window for Bitcoin. Progress in negotiations after the 90-day buffer period for U.S.-China tariffs, easing geopolitical situations in regions like Russia-Ukraine and India-Pakistan, continued institutional entry (global listed companies hold over 688,000 Bitcoins, accounting for 3.28% of total supply), and the exploration of "strategic Bitcoin reserve" policies at the federal and state levels in the U.S. may all boost market risk appetite and support Bitcoin prices. However, if inflation exceeds expectations or geopolitical risks escalate, risk aversion may put pressure on the market. Investors need to closely monitor Federal Reserve policies, macro data, tariff negotiations, and regulatory trends, adjusting strategies flexibly.
Positive Signals for Crypto-Friendly Policies Amid Policy Games: Will Stablecoin Regulation Enter a Relaxation Period?
Policy games are profoundly affecting the crypto market. On May 21, the Hong Kong Legislative Council passed the "Stablecoin Regulation Draft," establishing a licensing system for fiat-backed stablecoin issuers in Hong Kong and improving the regulatory framework for virtual asset activities.
More complex policy impacts are occurring in the United States. The "Great Beautiful Tax Law" plan promoted by the Trump administration (which aims to reduce taxes by $5 trillion over the next 10 years) temporarily stimulates market sentiment, but the expanding fiscal deficit and debt ceiling issues may trigger liquidity fluctuations. On the regulatory front, the U.S. Senate is pushing for stablecoin legislation—the "GENIUS Act" stablecoin bill negotiations have reached 90% consensus, aiming to provide a regulatory framework supported by 100% high-quality assets, offering standardized guidance for the stablecoin market. Additionally, the exploration of tokenization in U.S. stocks is accelerating, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and traditional financial institutions (like JPMorgan) actively positioning themselves, expecting the tokenization scale of real-world assets to reach $18.9 trillion by 2030, expanding new scenarios for digital assets. Legislative attempts for "strategic Bitcoin reserves" at the federal and state levels (such as New Hampshire's H.B. 302 bill) further enhance Bitcoin's strategic position, providing policy backing for institutional entry.
Riding the Trend: Huobi HTX Launches USD1 and Multiple Compliant Stablecoins, Offering Zero-Fee Exchange Services
Under the global expectation of policy easing and the trend of regulatory transparency, stablecoins, as the liquidity foundation and value anchor of the crypto market, are becoming increasingly important. Huobi HTX is seizing market opportunities and has recently launched several compliant stablecoins, including USD1 (World Liberty Financial USD), USDQ (Quantoz), EURQ (Quantoz), USDR (StablR), and EURR (StablR), to meet users' diverse investment needs and enhance capital efficiency. At the same time, to celebrate the launch of USD1 and lower the participation threshold for users, Huobi HTX has specially introduced a zero-fee exchange service. Until December 31, 2025, 23:59 (GMT+8), the USD1/USDT spot trading pair will enjoy a zero-fee benefit. Users will not incur additional costs during the exchange process, maximizing capital utilization efficiency. Huobi HTX is committed to providing global users with safe, efficient, and high-quality crypto financial services.
In addition, regarding investment strategies, the HTX Research report analyzes several stablecoin financial products, including Backpack's USD lending annualized yield of about 4.94%, Resolv's USR annualized yield of up to 15%, Aave+Pendle combination strategy's annualized yield of about 10%, Falcon's USDf annualized yield exceeding 10%, and Coinshift's csUSDL annualized yield of about 10%.
The report concludes that the Bitcoin market needs to be cautious of liquidity pressures and volatility risks in the short term, while in the medium to long term, it is expected to rebound under clearer policies and institutional entry. Huobi HTX will continue to closely follow market and policy trends, helping users seize opportunities and achieve steady growth in the complex and ever-changing crypto market.
To read the full report, please visit: https://square.htx.com/htx-research-zui-xin-yan-bao/
About HTX Research
HTX Research is the dedicated research department under HTX Group, responsible for in-depth analysis across a wide range of fields including cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends, writing comprehensive reports, and providing professional assessments. HTX Research is committed to providing data-driven insights and strategic foresight, playing a key role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting informed decision-making in the digital asset space. With rigorous research methodologies and cutting-edge data analysis, HTX Research consistently stands at the forefront of innovation, leading the development of industry thought and promoting a deeper understanding of the ever-changing market dynamics.
If you wish to communicate, please contact research@htx-inc.com
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